This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
U
Ulm
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.23
1.20
1.20
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (28)
0.96
1.29
0.93
1.21
1.00
1.36
vs Similar (2)
2.50
0.50
5.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.3%
Under 1.5
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.0%
@ 1.48+0.0%
Under 2.5
37.0%
@ 2.52-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.9%
Under 3.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.6%
No
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.8%
3-0
9.7%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.8%
1-1
8.3%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
5.9%
4-1
4.7%
Hamburger SV goals ↓
Ulm goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
2.3%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
1
8.8%
8.3%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
2
12%
9.3%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
3
9.7%
7.6%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
5.9%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hamburger SV goals (down), columns = Ulm goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
1. FC Köln
1.87
Hamburger SV
1.76
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.71
Hannover 96
1.66
SC Paderborn 07
1.66
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.66
SV Elversberg
1.63
1. FC Magdeburg
1.58
Karlsruher SC
1.58
FC Saarbrücken
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Hertha BSC
1.34
SV Darmstadt 98
1.21
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.21
FC Schalke 04
1.18
Preußen Münster
1.16
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.02
Ulm
0.88
SSV Ulm 1846
0.88
Jahn Regensburg
0.74
Regensburg
0.74
Hamburger SV is 0.88 points better than Ulm in terms of average points per game (1.76 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamburger SV
2.39
1. FC Nürnberg
1.92
SV Elversberg
1.87
1. FC Magdeburg
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.74
Karlsruher SC
1.68
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.66
SV Darmstadt 98
1.63
SC Paderborn 07
1.61
1. FC Köln
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.47
FC Schalke 04
1.47
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.37
Hannover 96
1.29
Preußen Münster
1.24
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.07
Ulm
1.06
SSV Ulm 1846
1.06
FC Saarbrücken
1.00
Jahn Regensburg
0.68
Regensburg
0.68
Hamburger SV is 1.34 goals better than Ulm in terms of goals scored per game (2.39 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Saarbrücken
1.00
Hannover 96
1.03
1. FC Köln
1.03
SV Elversberg
1.08
Preußen Münster
1.18
SC Paderborn 07
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.24
1. FC Magdeburg
1.39
Ulm
1.41
SSV Ulm 1846
1.41
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.45
Hertha BSC
1.50
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.50
Karlsruher SC
1.55
SV Darmstadt 98
1.61
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.63
1. FC Nürnberg
1.66
FC Schalke 04
1.71
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.77
Jahn Regensburg
2.09
Regensburg
2.09
Hamburger SV is 0.17 goals better than Ulm in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
1. FC Magdeburg
58%
Hamburger SV
55%
FC Schalke 04
54%
Hertha BSC
53%
FC Saarbrücken
53%
1. FC Köln
53%
SV Elversberg
52%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
52%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
52%
1. FC Nürnberg
51%
Fortuna Düsseldorf
50%
Hannover 96
49%
Karlsruher SC
49%
SSV Ulm 1846
46%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
45%
Preußen Münster
43%
Jahn Regensburg
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hamburger SV
For 5.7 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 3.2 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 8.8 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
U
Ulm
For 4.6 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 12.5 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hamburger SV
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.5
9.8
5.2
4.8
5.8
23.4
22.8
24.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
10.2
10.3
10.1
5.0
4.7
5.4
21.8
23.0
20.5
vs Weaker (33)
10.9
12.1
9.7
5.4
4.8
5.9
24.3
22.6
26.0
% over line
62%
69%
54%
76%
69%
83%
62%
65%
58%
% under line
38%
31%
46%
24%
31%
17%
38%
35%
42%
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
U
Ulm
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (32)
9.5
9.4
9.7
5.4
6.1
4.7
25.5
24.6
26.4
vs Stronger (29)
9.8
9.4
10.1
5.6
6.5
4.6
24.7
24.4
25.0
vs Similar (3)
7.3
9.0
6.5
3.3
0.0
5.0
33.0
27.0
36.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
31%
44%
88%
88%
88%
88%
81%
94%
% under line
62%
69%
56%
12%
12%
12%
12%
19%
6%
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
1. FC Kaiserslautern
11.1
Hertha BSC
11.1
1. FC Magdeburg
11.0
1. FC Köln
10.9
SC Paderborn 07
10.7
Hamburger SV
10.7
SV Elversberg
10.6
1. FC Nürnberg
10.5
Hannover 96
10.5
Jahn Regensburg
10.4
Karlsruher SC
10.3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
9.9
Preußen Münster
9.8
Regensburg
9.8
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
9.8
SV Darmstadt 98
9.6
SSV Ulm 1846
9.6
Ulm
9.5
FC Schalke 04
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SSV Ulm 1846
6.0
Ulm
5.4
Hamburger SV
5.3
1. FC Nürnberg
5.3
Preußen Münster
5.2
SV Darmstadt 98
5.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.0
FC Schalke 04
5.0
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
5.0
1. FC Magdeburg
4.9
Jahn Regensburg
4.9
Regensburg
4.7
Hertha BSC
4.7
1. FC Köln
4.6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.6
Karlsruher SC
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Hannover 96
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Jahn Regensburg
26.5
Regensburg
26.2
Preußen Münster
26.0
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.6
Hannover 96
25.6
SSV Ulm 1846
25.5
Ulm
25.5
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24.2
1. FC Nürnberg
23.7
1. FC Köln
23.5
Eintracht Braunschweig
23.5
Hamburger SV
23.4
1. FC Magdeburg
23.2
SV Darmstadt 98
23.0
Hertha BSC
22.8
SC Paderborn 07
22.7
SV Elversberg
22.2
Karlsruher SC
22.1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
21.1
FC Schalke 04
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.3%
Under 9.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.8%
Under 3.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
75.6%
Under 21.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hamburger SV
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
1.29
0.43
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.36
0.83
0.17
1.20
0.60
vs Weaker (19)
1.00
0.68
1.62
0.62
0.55
0.73
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
U
Ulm
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.30
0.67
0.13
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (28)
0.54
0.32
0.50
0.14
0.57
0.50
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hamburger SV
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.70
1.07
0.79
1.25
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.91
0.83
0.83
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.37
0.58
1.25
0.75
1.45
0.45
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
U
Ulm
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.93
0.53
1.07
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (28)
0.43
0.96
0.43
1.07
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home win
73.3%
1.38
-
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hamburger SV
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Robert Glatzel56%
Davie Selke55%
Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer32%
Moritz Heyer20%
Jean-Luc Dompé18%
Otto Stange14%
Noah Katterbach10%
Daniel Elfadli9%
Emir Sahiti9%
Adam Karabec9%
Fabio Baldé8%
Ludovit Reis7%
Miro Muheim6%
Łukasz Poręba5%
Immanuel Pherai5%
Silvan Hefti5%
Dennis Hadžikadunić4%
Marco Richter4%
Jonas Meffert3%
Sebastian Schonlau0%
Bakery Jatta0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Adedire Mebude0%
Matheo Raab0%
William Mikelbrencis0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Adedire Mebude50%
Daniel Elfadli31%
Sebastian Schonlau24%
Davie Selke21%
Łukasz Poręba21%
Immanuel Pherai21%
Noah Katterbach20%
Moritz Heyer20%
Silvan Hefti20%
William Mikelbrencis19%
Miro Muheim19%
Emir Sahiti18%
Ludovit Reis18%
Dennis Hadžikadunić16%
Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer12%
Bakery Jatta10%
Jonas Meffert10%
Jean-Luc Dompé9%
Adam Karabec9%
Fabio Baldé8%
Marco Richter7%
Robert Glatzel0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Matheo Raab0%
Otto Stange0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jean-Luc Dompé36%
Miro Muheim28%
Immanuel Pherai16%
Adam Karabec15%
Noah Katterbach10%
Bakery Jatta10%
Jonas Meffert10%
Daniel Elfadli9%
Emir Sahiti9%
Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer9%
Fabio Baldé8%
William Mikelbrencis8%
Marco Richter7%
Ludovit Reis7%
Robert Glatzel6%
Silvan Hefti5%
Sebastian Schonlau0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Davie Selke0%
Moritz Heyer0%
Łukasz Poręba0%
Dennis Hadžikadunić0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Adedire Mebude0%
Matheo Raab0%
Otto Stange0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Davie Selke52%
Robert Glatzel25%
Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer24%
Jean-Luc Dompé18%
Marco Richter14%
Emir Sahiti14%
Ludovit Reis7%
Daniel Elfadli6%
Adam Karabec6%
Sebastian Schonlau4%
Miro Muheim3%
Noah Katterbach0%
Bakery Jatta0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Moritz Heyer0%
Łukasz Poręba0%
Silvan Hefti0%
Dennis Hadžikadunić0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Adedire Mebude0%
Matheo Raab0%
William Mikelbrencis0%
Fabio Baldé0%
Otto Stange0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →