Hamilton Academical are expected to emerge victorious in this Scotland: League One encounter against Airdrie United. The recent form of the home side has been impressive, with a 4-game winning streak, including a 4-0 win over Airdrie United in their last meeting. This has been reflected in the model's prediction, favouring a home win with a 44% probability, alongside a 28% chance of a draw and a 28% probability of an away win.
The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.5% probability. Hamilton Academical have been scoring 0.73 goals on average at home and conceding 1.91 goals, while Airdrie United have been scoring 0.64 goals on average away from home and conceding 1.45 goals.
The model's selections include an Over 1.5 goal selection with a 74.8% probability and an Under 3.5 goal selection with a 73.2% probability. The home win percentage is 44%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 28%.
Results analysis
Hamilton Academical's 4-0 victory extends their 4-game winning run. The actual result was a home win, as predicted by the model, with a pre-match probability of 44%. The model's call was correct, confirming them as the favourites. The model's selection of a Home win was spot on. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 hit, with a pre-match probability of 74.8%, while Under 3.5 missed, with a pre-match probability of 73.2%. The most likely score was a 1-1 draw, but the actual final score was a convincing 4-0.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hamilton Academical win✓ Hit
43.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United win✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hamilton Academical
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.40
1.23
1.54
1.24
1.29
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.67
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.33
vs Similar (18)
0.89
1.39
1.00
1.29
0.82
1.45
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
1.17
2.00
1.67
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.33
1.27
1.20
0.87
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.04
1.42
1.17
1.33
0.93
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
1.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.5%
2-0
8.0%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
5.2%
Hamilton Academical goals ↓
Airdrie United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
7.1%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
1
9.6%
14%
7.0%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.0%
9.1%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.9%
4.5%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.5%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hamilton Academical goals (down), columns = Airdrie United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Hamilton Academical is 1.22 points better than Airdrie United in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Hamilton Academical is 1.14 goals better than Airdrie United in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Hamilton Academical is 0.06 goals worse than Airdrie United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hamilton Academical
For 6.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 7.5 · Total 16.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Airdrie United
For 4.0 · Against 6.7 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.4 · Against 8.6 · Total 17.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hamilton Academical
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
12.0
9.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
16.0
23.0
9.0
vs Stronger (10)
9.0
-
9.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
9.0
-
9.0
vs Similar (34)
12.0
12.0
-
0.2
0.1
0.3
23.0
23.0
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
2%
0%
4%
50%
100%
0%
% under line
50%
0%
100%
98%
100%
96%
50%
0%
100%
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.4
10.5
0.7
0.7
0.7
17.5
15.5
18.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
10.0
9.4
10.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
17.5
15.5
18.8
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
55%
40%
67%
12%
12%
12%
20%
0%
33%
% under line
45%
60%
33%
88%
88%
88%
80%
100%
67%
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.5%
Under 9.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
43.6%
Under 3.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
82.5%
Under 21.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hamilton Academical
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.62
0.77
0.65
0.29
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.39
0.43
0.57
0.55
0.27
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.33
0.47
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.65
0.25
0.58
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hamilton Academical
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.62
0.77
0.59
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.39
1.00
0.57
0.71
0.27
1.18
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.93
0.73
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.77
0.92
0.75
0.36
0.79
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
Peterhead
East Fife
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Queen of the South