Hamilton Academical’s recent unbeaten run of five games, including a 1-0 win over Cove Rangers, fuels the model’s confidence that a home victory is the most likely outcome. The League One fixture is expected to see 3.4 goals on average, with the single most probable scoreline 2-0 for Hamilton, a 12.1% chance. Hamilton’s home form shows they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.5 conceded against stronger opposition, while Montrose, playing away against weaker sides, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. The model assigns a 78% probability to a home win, 15% to a draw, and 7% to an away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.4%), Home +2 handicap (98.1%), Under 7.5 (97.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.4%), Under 6.5 (94.2%), Over 19.5 fouls (93.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (93.2%) and Home or Draw (93.1%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hamilton Academical win
78.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
14.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Montrose win
6.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hamilton Academical
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.27
1.40
1.33
1.27
1.20
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.43
1.00
1.50
2.00
1.33
vs Similar (17)
1.06
1.24
1.38
1.12
0.78
1.33
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
1.17
2.00
1.67
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montrose
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.80
1.60
1.60
1.27
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.09
2.27
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
1.56
1.40
1.80
1.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.0%
Under 2.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.1%
Under 3.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.2%
No
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.1%
3-0
10.8%
2-1
8.6%
1-0
8.4%
3-1
7.7%
4-0
7.2%
1-1
7.1%
4-1
5.2%
Hamilton Academical goals ↓
Montrose goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
1.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
1
8.4%
7.1%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
2
12%
8.6%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
11%
7.7%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
4
7.2%
5.2%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hamilton Academical goals (down), columns = Montrose goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Hamilton Academical is 1.33 points better than Montrose in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Hamilton Academical is 1.17 goals better than Montrose in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Hamilton Academical is 0.36 goals better than Montrose in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hamilton Academical
For 6.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 7.5 · Total 16.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Montrose
For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hamilton Academical
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
12.0
9.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
16.0
23.0
9.0
vs Stronger (12)
9.0
-
9.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
9.0
-
9.0
vs Similar (32)
12.0
12.0
-
0.2
0.1
0.3
23.0
23.0
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
2%
0%
4%
50%
100%
0%
% under line
50%
0%
100%
98%
100%
96%
50%
0%
100%
This opponent (Montrose) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montrose
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.1
9.1
2.4
2.3
2.5
23.9
22.0
25.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
9.3
9.7
8.8
2.6
2.6
2.5
24.9
23.5
26.6
vs Weaker (11)
8.1
6.0
9.8
1.8
1.2
2.3
20.1
15.0
24.0
% over line
36%
35%
38%
40%
29%
50%
73%
65%
81%
% under line
64%
65%
62%
60%
71%
50%
27%
35%
19%
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.6%
Under 9.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
51.3%
Under 3.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
86.0%
Under 21.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hamilton Academical or Draw
93.1%
Avg Implied -
78%
15%
7%
covers Hamilton Academical + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical or Montrose
85.1%
Avg Implied -
78%
15%
7%
covers Hamilton Academical + Montrose
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Montrose
21.7%
Avg Implied -
78%
15%
7%
covers Draw + Montrose
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5
Over
93.2%
Under
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5
Over
74.8%
Under
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5
Over
50.2%
Under
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 3.5
Over
28.2%
Under
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 0.5
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hamilton Academical, so a minus line means Hamilton Academical give that many goals of a start and Montrose receive them. At -1, Hamilton Academical must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hamilton Academical win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hamilton Academical)
Hamilton Academical -2
36.3%
Draw -2
21.8%
Montrose +2
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hamilton Academical)
Hamilton Academical -1
58.1%
Draw -1
20.2%
Montrose +1
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hamilton Academical)
Hamilton Academical +1
93.1%
Draw +1
4.9%
Montrose -1
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hamilton Academical)
Hamilton Academical +2
98.1%
Draw +2
1.6%
Montrose -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hamilton Academical
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.27
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.35
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.22
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montrose
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.67
0.90
0.50
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.67
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hamilton Academical
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.73
0.67
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.88
0.88
0.62
0.33
1.11
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montrose
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.13
0.80
1.00
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.67
1.24
0.80
1.00
0.55
1.45
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.89
0.80
1.00
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (11)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Hamilton Academical and Montrose have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Hamilton Academical and Montrose have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (3)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Hamilton Academical and Montrose have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (7)
€1m
QOT (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Hamilton Academical and Montrose have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
Peterhead
East Fife
Cove Rangers
Airdrie United
Queen of the South