Hamilton Academical’s recent unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 1-0 win over Cove Rangers, sets the tone for this encounter. The model rates a home win as the clear favourite, with an 82% probability, reflecting Hamilton’s strong home form - scoring 1.38 goals and conceding 1.12 against similar opposition - versus Queen of the South’s struggle on the road, where they average only 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The expected total goals is 3.7, and the single most likely scoreline is 3-0, carrying a 10.9% chance. The model’s pick is a Hamilton victory, and the overall probabilities are 82% for a home win, 12% for a draw, and 5% for an away win. Suggested selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.3%, Home +2 handicap at 98.5%, Under 7.5 at 96.3%, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.3%, Home over 0.5 goals at 95.1%, Home or Draw at 94.6%, Home +1 handicap at 94.6%, and Over 19.5 fouls at 92.3%. These picks reflect the model’s confidence in Hamilton’s dominance at home and Queen of the South’s defensive frailties away.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hamilton Academical win
82.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
12.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South win
5.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hamilton Academical
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.27
1.40
1.33
1.27
1.20
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.43
1.00
1.50
2.00
1.33
vs Similar (17)
1.06
1.24
1.38
1.12
0.78
1.33
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
1.17
2.00
1.67
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen of the South
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.91
1.68
0.91
1.45
0.91
1.91
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
2.15
0.43
2.00
1.17
2.33
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.60
2.33
0.33
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
18% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.3%
Under 1.5
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.2%
Under 2.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.5%
Under 3.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
10.9%
2-0
10.8%
4-0
8.2%
3-1
7.9%
2-1
7.9%
1-0
6.6%
4-1
6.0%
1-1
5.7%
Hamilton Academical goals ↓
Queen of the South goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
1
6.6%
5.7%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
2
11%
7.9%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
3
11%
7.9%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
4
8.2%
6.0%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hamilton Academical goals (down), columns = Queen of the South goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Hamilton Academical is 1.22 points better than Queen of the South in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Peterhead
1.33
Montrose
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Hamilton Academical is 1.14 goals better than Queen of the South in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Hamilton Academical is 0.06 goals worse than Queen of the South in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hamilton Academical
For 6.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 7.5 · Total 16.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Queen of the South
For 2.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hamilton Academical
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
12.0
9.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
16.0
23.0
9.0
vs Stronger (12)
9.0
-
9.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
9.0
-
9.0
vs Similar (32)
12.0
12.0
-
0.2
0.1
0.3
23.0
23.0
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
2%
0%
4%
50%
100%
0%
% under line
50%
0%
100%
98%
100%
96%
50%
0%
100%
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen of the South
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (25)
6.0
-
6.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
20.0
-
20.0
vs Stronger (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
6.0
-
6.0
0.6
0.0
0.8
20.0
-
20.0
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
100%
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.0%
Under 9.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.1%
Under 3.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
84.2%
Under 21.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hamilton Academical or Draw
94.6%
Avg Implied -
82%
12%
5%
covers Hamilton Academical + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical or Queen of the South
87.8%
Avg Implied -
82%
12%
5%
covers Hamilton Academical + Queen of the South
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Queen of the South
17.7%
Avg Implied -
82%
12%
5%
covers Draw + Queen of the South
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5
Over
95.1%
Under
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5
Over
80.4%
Under
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5
Over
58.1%
Under
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 3.5
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 0.5
Over
51.6%
Under
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 1.5
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 2.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hamilton Academical, so a minus line means Hamilton Academical give that many goals of a start and Queen of the South receive them. At -1, Hamilton Academical must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hamilton Academical win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hamilton Academical)
Hamilton Academical -2
43.3%
Draw -2
21.1%
Queen of the South +2
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hamilton Academical)
Hamilton Academical -1
64.5%
Draw -1
17.9%
Queen of the South +1
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hamilton Academical)
Hamilton Academical +1
94.6%
Draw +1
3.9%
Queen of the South -1
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hamilton Academical)
Hamilton Academical +2
98.5%
Draw +2
1.2%
Queen of the South -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hamilton Academical
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.27
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.35
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.22
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen of the South
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.05
0.36
0.82
0.64
1.27
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
1.31
0.29
1.14
0.83
1.50
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
32% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hamilton Academical
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.73
0.67
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.88
0.88
0.62
0.33
1.11
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen of the South
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.41
0.64
0.55
0.64
0.27
0.64
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.85
0.14
0.86
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.20
1.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
55% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (11)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Hamilton Academical and Queen of the South have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Hamilton Academical and Queen of the South have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (3)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Hamilton Academical and Queen of the South have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (7)
€1m
QOT (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Hamilton Academical and Queen of the South have a similar defence value (both €0m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
HA wins
0
Draws
0
QOT wins
Head-to-head
Hamilton Academical vs Queen of the South · H/A from HA
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
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Ross County
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
Peterhead
East Fife
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Airdrie United