This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.80
1.00
1.47
1.80
2.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.95
0.60
1.80
1.60
2.10
vs Weaker (10)
2.00
1.50
1.80
0.80
2.20
2.20
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.8%
@ 1.65+5.4%
Under 2.5
38.2%
@ 2.14-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.8%
No
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.4%
1-0
7.4%
3-1
6.6%
2-2
5.7%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.7%
Hamilton goals ↓
Kelty Hearts goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
3.8%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
1
7.4%
11%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.4%
9.8%
5.7%
2.2%
0.7%
3
5.7%
6.6%
3.9%
1.5%
0.4%
4
2.9%
3.4%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hamilton goals (down), columns = Kelty Hearts goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Falkirk
2.50
Hamilton
2.06
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.47
Cove Rangers
1.36
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
0.39
Hamilton is 0.83 points better than Kelty Hearts in terms of average points per game (2.06 vs 1.22).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkirk
2.67
Hamilton
2.03
Alloa
1.67
Cove Rangers
1.61
Montrose
1.61
Annan Athletic
1.53
Kelty Hearts
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
1.06
Hamilton is 0.69 goals better than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.33).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.78
Hamilton
0.78
Queen of Sth
1.47
Alloa
1.53
Montrose
1.58
Stirling
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.89
Edinburgh City
2.72
Hamilton is 0.97 goals better than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.75).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
H
Hamilton
For 4.8 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 9.9 · Total 21.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
For 4.6 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
H
Hamilton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.7
10.2
3.6
4.0
3.2
20.5
20.9
20.1
vs Stronger (4)
9.2
11.0
7.5
4.2
5.0
3.5
25.2
28.0
22.5
vs Similar (31)
10.6
10.8
10.4
3.5
4.2
2.9
20.5
21.0
19.9
vs Weaker (15)
10.4
10.4
10.4
3.5
3.4
3.7
19.3
18.9
19.9
% over line
66%
68%
64%
50%
56%
44%
36%
36%
36%
% under line
34%
32%
36%
50%
44%
56%
64%
64%
64%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
10.7
11.6
3.6
3.7
3.5
21.7
21.6
21.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
11.1
11.3
11.0
3.6
3.5
3.7
22.2
21.8
22.6
vs Weaker (13)
11.0
9.0
13.3
3.7
4.1
3.2
20.2
21.0
19.2
% over line
64%
54%
75%
38%
38%
38%
52%
58%
46%
% under line
36%
46%
25%
62%
62%
62%
48%
42%
54%
This opponent (Hamilton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kelty Hearts
11.1
Falkirk
10.8
Hamilton
10.4
Stirling
10.3
Montrose
10.2
Cove Rangers
10.1
Annan Athletic
10.0
Queen of Sth
10.0
Edinburgh City
10.0
Alloa
9.7
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Annan Athletic
4.6
Falkirk
4.1
Montrose
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Queen of Sth
3.7
Kelty Hearts
3.6
Edinburgh City
3.6
Hamilton
3.6
Alloa
3.4
Cove Rangers
3.1
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Falkirk
21.8
Kelty Hearts
21.7
Montrose
21.0
Annan Athletic
20.9
Queen of Sth
20.9
Hamilton
20.5
Edinburgh City
20.3
Stirling
20.0
Alloa
19.1
Cove Rangers
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
66.4%
Under 9.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.6%
Under 3.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
44.4%
Under 21.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
H
Hamilton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.30
0.80
0.20
1.13
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.12
0.71
0.00
0.89
0.22
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.20
1.00
0.17
2.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.97
0.40
0.87
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.45
1.10
0.20
1.10
0.70
1.10
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.70
0.80
0.40
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hamilton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
H
Hamilton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.20
0.73
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.44
1.00
0.71
1.11
0.22
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.60
1.83
0.50
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.60
0.60
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.85
0.40
0.70
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.80
1.00
0.40
1.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hamilton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kelty Hearts
Falkirk
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Annan Athletic
Stirling
Edinburgh City