Hamrun Spartans are set to defend a tight, low-scoring game, with the model projecting a 46% chance of a home win, a 31% draw, and a 23% away win. The favoured result is a home victory. The expected total goals sit at 2.2, with the most likely total of two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.1% probability. Hamrun Spartans, playing at home against a weaker opponent, average 1.5 goals scored and 0.88 conceded, while Marsaxlokk, on the road to stronger teams, average 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 5.5 (97.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.1%), Under 4.5 (92.6%), and Home +2 handicap (91.9%). Hamrun Spartans have a 46% chance of winning, a 31% chance of a draw, and Marsaxlokk a 23% chance of victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hamrun Spartans win
45.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk win
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hamrun Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.97
1.76
0.76
1.15
1.23
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.75
0.88
2.25
0.50
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
1.00
1.50
0.88
1.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marsaxlokk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.10
1.57
1.07
1.12
1.12
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
1.36
1.50
1.75
0.86
1.14
vs Similar (19)
1.47
0.95
1.60
0.80
1.33
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.2%
Under 1.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.2%
Under 2.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.4%
Under 3.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.5%
No
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
13.2%
0-0
12.2%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.4%
1-2
5.7%
0-2
4.3%
Hamrun Spartans goals ↓
Marsaxlokk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.4%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.7%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.6%
8.5%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
3
4.3%
3.8%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hamrun Spartans goals (down), columns = Marsaxlokk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Hamrun Spartans is 0.26 points better than Marsaxlokk in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Hamrun Spartans is 0.32 goals better than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Hamrun Spartans is 0.50 goals better than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals conceded per game (0.65 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hamrun Spartans or Draw
76.3%
Avg Implied -
46%
31%
24%
covers Hamrun Spartans + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans or Marsaxlokk
69.3%
Avg Implied -
46%
31%
24%
covers Hamrun Spartans + Marsaxlokk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Marsaxlokk
54.4%
Avg Implied -
46%
31%
24%
covers Draw + Marsaxlokk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5
Over
73.5%
Under
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5
Over
38.3%
Under
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5
Over
58.9%
Under
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hamrun Spartans, so a minus line means Hamrun Spartans give that many goals of a start and Marsaxlokk receive them. At -1, Hamrun Spartans must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hamrun Spartans win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hamrun Spartans)
Hamrun Spartans -2
8.0%
Draw -2
14.0%
Marsaxlokk +2
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hamrun Spartans)
Hamrun Spartans -1
22.0%
Draw -1
23.6%
Marsaxlokk +1
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hamrun Spartans)
Hamrun Spartans +1
76.3%
Draw +1
15.4%
Marsaxlokk -1
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hamrun Spartans)
Hamrun Spartans +2
91.6%
Draw +2
6.3%
Marsaxlokk -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hamrun Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.65
0.29
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.38
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.54
0.75
0.38
0.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marsaxlokk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.93
0.43
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.64
1.25
0.75
0.57
0.57
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.47
0.80
0.30
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hamrun Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.12
0.47
0.77
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.50
1.62
0.25
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.46
0.75
0.50
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marsaxlokk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.64
0.64
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.73
0.25
1.00
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.47
0.80
0.50
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hamrun Spartans · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Semir Smajlagić20%
Mouad El Fanis20%
Ante Ćorić17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Ederson0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Jovan Čađenović0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Emerson0%
Matias Garcia0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ederson40%
Joseph Mbong40%
Vincenzo Polito40%
Matias Garcia25%
Emerson20%
Mouad El Fanis20%
Ognjen Bjeličić17%
Henry Bonello17%
Jovan Čađenović17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Semir Smajlagić0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jovan Čađenović17%
Rafael Compri17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Ederson0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Semir Smajlagić0%
Emerson0%
Matias Garcia0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
Mouad El Fanis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
N'Dri Koffi50%
Matias Garcia25%
Ederson20%
Semir Smajlagić20%
Serigne Saliou Thioune20%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Jovan Čađenović0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Mouad El Fanis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Hamrun Spartans's squad is €1m more valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€5m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Hamrun Spartans and Marsaxlokk have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans's midfield is €1m more valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Hamrun Spartans and Marsaxlokk have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Floriana
Valletta FC
Mosta
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Zabbar St. Patrick
Hibernians
Sliema Wanderers
Birzebbuga
Gzira United