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Hamrun Spartans vs Naxxar Lions Result & Analysis

Date: 19/04/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 3-0
Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
Vs
67%
21%
12%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Hamrun Spartans win✓ Hit
67.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions win✗ Miss
11.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D40W00D10W20W11D30W12L23L01LA·GZI03/02H·NAX07/02H·ZAB13/02A·HIB18/02H·MAR23/02H·FLO01/03H·BIR08/03A·MOS15/03A·MAR11/04H·GZI15/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.901.750.691.071.14
vs Stronger (1)0.002.000.002.00--
vs Similar (16)1.560.882.120.501.001.25
vs Weaker (13)1.380.851.570.711.171.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W04L11D42W21W00D11D21W01L11DH·MOS04/02A·HAM07/02H·SLI14/02H·GZI17/02A·TAR21/02H·BIR01/03A·MAR08/03H·HIB14/03H·FLO11/04H·VAL15/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.501.431.141.251.81
vs Stronger (7)1.141.860.751.501.672.33
vs Similar (23)1.391.391.701.001.151.69
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.6%
Under 2.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.5%
1-0
11.0%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-0 ✓
8.7%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.6%
4-0
4.5%
Hamrun Spartans goals ↓
Naxxar Lions goals →
01234
06.6%3.5%1.7%0.4%0.1%
111%10%3.6%0.9%0.2%
212%9.6%3.7%1.0%0.2%
38.7%6.7%2.6%0.7%0.1%
44.5%3.5%1.4%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hamrun Spartans goals (down), columns = Naxxar Lions goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Hamrun Spartans is 0.88 points better than Naxxar Lions in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.06).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Hamrun Spartans is 0.38 goals better than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.24).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Hamrun Spartans is 0.93 goals better than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals conceded per game (0.65 vs 1.58).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W00D00D00D01L10W01L12L00DA·GZI03/02H·NAX07/02H·ZAB13/02A·HIB18/02H·MAR23/02H·FLO01/03H·BIR08/03A·MOS15/03A·MAR11/04H·GZI15/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.430.560.310.500.57
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (16)0.560.440.500.380.620.50
vs Weaker (13)0.540.460.710.290.330.67
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W02L00D10W00D00D10W10W01L01LH·MOS04/02A·HAM07/02H·SLI14/02H·GZI17/02A·TAR21/02H·BIR01/03A·MAR08/03H·HIB14/03H·FLO11/04H·VAL15/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.570.500.500.810.62
vs Stronger (7)0.710.860.251.001.330.67
vs Similar (23)0.650.480.600.300.690.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W00D10W20W10W20W11D11D01LA·GZI03/02H·NAX07/02H·ZAB13/02A·HIB18/02H·MAR23/02H·FLO01/03H·BIR08/03A·MOS15/03A·MAR11/04H·GZI15/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.471.190.380.570.57
vs Stronger (1)0.002.000.002.00--
vs Similar (16)1.000.441.620.120.380.75
vs Weaker (13)0.850.380.860.430.830.33
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W02L11D32W21W00D01L11D00D10WH·MOS04/02A·HAM07/02H·SLI14/02H·GZI17/02A·TAR21/02H·BIR01/03A·MAR08/03H·HIB14/03H·FLO11/04H·VAL15/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.930.930.640.441.19
vs Stronger (7)0.431.000.500.500.331.67
vs Similar (23)0.740.911.100.700.461.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.9%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

Hamrun Spartans
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Semir Smajlagić20%
Mouad El Fanis20%
Ante Ćorić17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Ederson0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Jovan Čađenović0%
Domantas Å imkus0%
Emerson0%
Matias Garcia0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ederson40%
Joseph Mbong40%
Vincenzo Polito40%
Matias Garcia25%
Emerson20%
Mouad El Fanis20%
Ognjen Bjeličić17%
Henry Bonello17%
Jovan Čađenović17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Domantas Å imkus0%
Semir Smajlagić0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jovan Čađenović17%
Rafael Compri17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Ederson0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Domantas Å imkus0%
Semir Smajlagić0%
Emerson0%
Matias Garcia0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
Mouad El Fanis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
N'Dri Koffi50%
Matias Garcia25%
Ederson20%
Semir Smajlagić20%
Serigne Saliou Thioune20%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Jovan Čađenović0%
Domantas Å imkus0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Mouad El Fanis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Hamrun Spartans's squad is €4m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€5m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans and Naxxar Lions have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans's midfield is €2m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€3m vs €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Hamrun Spartans and Naxxar Lions have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
5
HS wins
1
Draws
0
NL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hamrun Spartans vs Naxxar Lions · H/A from HS
DateH/AGameScore
07/02/26HHS Vs Naxxar Lions4-0
26/10/25ANaxxar Lions Vs HS1-1
31/03/25HHS Vs Naxxar Lions4-0
27/09/24ANaxxar Lions Vs HS0-6
04/02/24HHS Vs Naxxar Lions4-1
23/09/23ANaxxar Lions Vs HS0-4

Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/26HHS Vs Gzira United0-1
11/04/26AMarsaxlokk Vs HS3-2
15/03/26AMosta Vs HS2-1
08/03/26HHS Vs Birkirkara3-0
01/03/26HHS Vs Floriana1-1
23/02/26HHS Vs Marsaxlokk2-0
18/02/26AHibernians Vs HS0-1
13/02/26HHS Vs Zabbar St. Patrick0-0
07/02/26HHS Vs Naxxar Lions4-0
03/02/26AGzira United Vs HS0-0

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/26HNL Vs Valletta FC1-1
11/04/26HNL Vs Floriana0-1
14/03/26HNL Vs Hibernians2-1
08/03/26AMarsaxlokk Vs NL1-1
01/03/26HNL Vs Birkirkara0-0
21/02/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs NL1-2
17/02/26HNL Vs Gzira United4-2
14/02/26HNL Vs Sliema Wanderers1-1
07/02/26AHamrun Spartans Vs NL4-0
04/02/26HNL Vs Mosta5-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL1.62
HomeDWDWL1.92
AwayDDWLL1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%58%35%
AVG goals2.122.212.04
Over 1.5 %66%67%65%
Over 2.5 %32%33%31%
Over 3.5 %18%17%19%
Scored1.221.500.96
Conceded0.900.711.08
BTTS32%29%35%
Clean Sheet50%54%46%
Corners8.838.679.00
Cards5.757.504.00
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLD1.18
HomeWDWLD1.45
AwayLLLWD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%27%
AVG goals2.782.502.97
Over 1.5 %78%70%83%
Over 2.5 %50%45%53%
Over 3.5 %30%20%37%
Scored1.201.301.13
Conceded1.581.201.83
BTTS52%50%53%
Clean Sheet18%25%13%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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