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Hapoel Acre vs Bnei Yehuda Result & Analysis

Date: 23/02/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 2-1
Hapoel Acre
Hapoel Acre
Vs
32%
27%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bnei Yehuda
Bnei Yehuda
Israel: Liga Leumit
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Hapoel Acre and Bnei Yehuda is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home chances sit at 32%, a draw at 27%, and the visitors at 41%. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13% chance. Hapoel Acre, at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Bnei Yehuda, on the road against a comparable side, nets 1.57 and concedes 1.64. The model’s single suggested pick is Over 1.5, with a 78.2% probability, and it was hit in the last match. Recent form shows Hapoel Acre struggling after three straight defeats, while Bnei Yehuda comes off a three-game winning streak. All probabilities are expressed as percentages and every selection is listed.

Results analysis

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win at 41%, failed to materialise, and Hapoel Acre snatched a 2-1 home victory. The model’s call was wrong, but its single suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with a 78.2% probability. The final score of 2-1 confirmed a home win, contradicting the 41% away win expectation. Hapoel Acre’s recent form, after three straight defeats, was a stark contrast to Bnei Yehuda’s three-game winning run. The model’s prediction of a 2-goal total, the most likely scoreline of 1-1, and the 25% probability for the most likely total were all missed. The outcome underlined the unpredictability of this fixture.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hapoel Acre win✓ Hit
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda win✗ Miss
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Hapoel AcreHapoel Acre

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D21W31W21W11D22D41W11D03L22DH·IHU18/12A·HAP22/12H·KAF29/12H·IRO05/01A·IRO12/01H·HAP22/01A·MAC02/02H·SEK06/02H·HAP09/02A·HAP19/02
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.331.331.531.601.13
vs Stronger (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Similar (29)1.481.311.331.531.641.07
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Yehuda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bnei YehudaBnei Yehuda

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D01L41W01L10W21W31W13L21WH·HAP18/12A·MAC25/12H·IHU29/12H·HAP05/01A·KAF12/01H·IRO19/01A·IRO02/02H·HAP06/02A·MAC09/02H·SEK16/02
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.472.001.361.441.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.881.582.251.501.571.64
vs Weaker (4)0.500.750.500.500.501.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Acre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.3%
Under 2.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-2
8.9%
0-1
7.9%
2-1 ✓
7.7%
0-0
7.2%
0-2
6.8%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
5.8%
Hapoel Acre goals ↓
Bnei Yehuda goals →
01234
07.2%7.9%6.8%3.4%1.3%
16.7%13%8.9%4.4%1.7%
25.2%7.7%5.8%2.9%1.1%
32.2%3.4%2.5%1.3%0.5%
40.7%1.1%0.8%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Acre goals (down), columns = Bnei Yehuda goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
2.05
Ironi Tiberias
1.95
Bnei Yehuda
1.95
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.70
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.35
Hapoel Acre
1.35
Maccabi Herzliya
1.35
Kafr Qasim
1.27
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.24
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.19
Hapoel Afula
1.16
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.16
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.13
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.08
Tira
1.00
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
0.54
Hapoel Acre is 0.59 points worse than Bnei Yehuda in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.95).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bnei Yehuda
1.92
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.84
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.78
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.73
Ironi Tiberias
1.68
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.68
Hapoel Acre
1.46
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.27
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.27
Kafr Qasim
1.19
Hapoel Afula
1.19
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.16
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.00
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.00
Hapoel Kfar Saba
0.95
Tira
0.00
Hapoel Acre is 0.46 goals worse than Bnei Yehuda in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tira
0.00
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.62
Ironi Tiberias
0.92
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.05
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.22
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.24
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.30
Hapoel Acre
1.32
Kafr Qasim
1.35
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.38
Hapoel Afula
1.46
Maccabi Herzliya
1.65
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.68
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.70
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.73
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.51
Hapoel Acre is 0.11 goals worse than Bnei Yehuda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.22).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Hapoel AcreHapoel Acre

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L11D10W22D11D10W01L10WH·IHU18/12A·HAP22/12H·KAF29/12H·IRO05/01A·IRO12/01H·HAP22/01A·MAC02/02H·SEK06/02H·HAP09/02A·HAP19/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.570.730.800.530.33
vs Stronger (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Similar (29)0.620.590.730.800.500.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Yehuda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bnei YehudaBnei Yehuda

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D31W00D10W10W11D12L01LH·HAP18/12A·MAC25/12H·IHU29/12H·HAP05/01A·KAF12/01H·IRO19/01A·IRO02/02H·HAP06/02A·MAC09/02H·SEK16/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.771.140.930.750.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.040.881.251.080.860.71
vs Weaker (4)0.250.000.500.000.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Acre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Acre over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Acre over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Acre over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Hapoel AcreHapoel Acre

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W30W10W01L00D30W01L02L12LH·IHU18/12A·HAP22/12H·KAF29/12H·IRO05/01A·IRO12/01H·HAP22/01A·MAC02/02H·SEK06/02H·HAP09/02A·HAP19/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.770.600.731.070.80
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (29)0.860.720.600.731.140.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Yehuda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bnei YehudaBnei Yehuda

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L10W01L00D11D20W01L20WH·HAP18/12A·MAC25/12H·IHU29/12H·HAP05/01A·KAF12/01H·IRO19/01A·IRO02/02H·HAP06/02A·MAC09/02H·SEK16/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.700.860.430.690.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.850.691.000.420.710.93
vs Weaker (4)0.250.750.000.500.501.00
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Acre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Acre over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Acre over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Acre over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IKS (22)
€7m
HRG (26)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
BY (26)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Hapoel Acre's squad is €2m less valuable than Bnei Yehuda's (€1m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Hapoel Acre's attack is €1m less valuable than Bnei Yehuda's (€0m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IKS (3)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
BY (5)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Hapoel Acre and Bnei Yehuda have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IKS (11)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
BY (12)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
MKJ (4)
€0m
Hapoel Acre and Bnei Yehuda have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
3
HA wins
1
Draws
0
BY wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hapoel Acre vs Bnei Yehuda · H/A from HA
DateH/AGameScore
17/11/23ABnei Yehuda Vs HA3-4
07/04/23HHA Vs Bnei Yehuda2-2
14/02/23ABnei Yehuda Vs HA1-3
24/10/22HHA Vs Bnei Yehuda1-0

Hapoel AcreHapoel Acre

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/02/24AHapoel Ramat HaSharon Vs HA2-2
09/02/24HHA Vs Hapoel Ramat Gan0-3
06/02/24HHA Vs Sektzia Nes Tziona1-1
02/02/24AMaccabi Herzliya Vs HA1-4
22/01/24HHA Vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm2-2
12/01/24AIroni Tiberias Vs HA1-1
05/01/24HHA Vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona2-1
29/12/23HHA Vs Kafr Qasim3-1
22/12/23AHapoel Kfar Saba Vs HA1-2
18/12/23HHA Vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram1-1

Bnei YehudaBnei Yehuda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/02/24HBY Vs Sektzia Nes Tziona2-1
09/02/24AMaccabi Herzliya Vs BY3-1
06/02/24HBY Vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm3-1
02/02/24AIroni Tiberias Vs BY1-2
19/01/24HBY Vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona1-0
12/01/24AKafr Qasim Vs BY1-0
05/01/24HBY Vs Hapoel Kfar Saba4-1
29/12/23HBY Vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram0-1
25/12/23AMaccabi Kabilio Jaffa Vs BY0-0
18/12/23HBY Vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hapoel Acre
Hapoel Acre
Israel: Liga Leumit
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLD1.30
HomeWWDDL1.36
AwayDWDWD1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals2.562.602.52
Over 1.5 %68%72%64%
Over 2.5 %48%52%44%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.341.281.40
Conceded1.221.321.12
BTTS62%64%60%
Clean Sheet18%20%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Bnei Yehuda
Bnei Yehuda
Israel: Liga Leumit
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW1.66
HomeLWWWW1.88
AwayDDLWL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%60%40%
AVG goals3.143.482.80
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %58%64%52%
Over 3.5 %38%44%32%
Scored1.702.001.40
Conceded1.441.481.40
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ironi Kiryat ShmonaIroni Kiryat Shmona3776
65%
2.1
6623+43
2.4
68%
43%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3121.80.6
-
2Ironi TiberiasIroni Tiberias3772
54%
1.9
6234+28
2.6
78%
43%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.70.9
-
3Bnei YehudaBnei Yehuda3772
59%
1.9
7145+26
3.1
78%
65%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
4Hapoel Nazareth IllitHapoel Nazareth Illit3763
49%
1.7
6239+23
2.7
76%
49%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
5Maccabi Kabilio JaffaMaccabi Kabilio Jaffa3751
38%
1.4
6862+6
3.5
89%
68%
49%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.81.7
-
6Hapoel AcreHapoel Acre3750
32%
1.4
5449+5
2.8
70%
49%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.3
-
7Hapoel Ramat HaSharonHapoel Ramat HaSharon3750
35%
1.4
6464+0
3.5
86%
68%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
8Maccabi HerzliyaMaccabi Herzliya3750
35%
1.4
4361-18
2.8
81%
54%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.6
-
9Kafr QasimKafr Qasim3747
32%
1.3
4450-6
2.5
65%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.4
-
10Hapoel Umm al-FahmHapoel Umm al-Fahm3746
30%
1.2
4751-4
2.6
84%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11Hapoel Ramat GanHapoel Ramat Gan3744
30%
1.2
4743+4
2.4
59%
43%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.2
-
12Hapoel AfulaHapoel Afula3743
30%
1.2
4454-10
2.6
76%
41%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.5
-
13Hapoel Rishon LeZionHapoel Rishon LeZion3743
30%
1.2
3748-11
2.3
76%
38%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.01.3
-
14Hapoel Kfar SabaHapoel Kfar Saba3843
26%
1.1
3647-11
2.2
55%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0010.91.2
-
15Sektzia Nes TzionaSektzia Nes Tziona3740
27%
1.1
4463-19
2.9
81%
49%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
16Ihud Bnei ShfaramIhud Bnei Shfaram3720
14%
0.5
3793-56
3.5
81%
70%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.5
-
17TiraTira11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Israel: Liga Leumit 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →

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