The contest between Hapoel Acre and Bnei Yehuda is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probability of a Hapoel Acre victory sits at 33%, a draw at 27%, and a Bnei Yehuda win at 40%. The average number of goals expected is 3.0, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, with a 12.4% probability. Hapoel Acre, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.53 goals scored and 1.35 conceded, while Bnei Yehuda, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.82 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. The model’s suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, an 80.8% chance. Recent form adds intrigue: Hapoel Acre has suffered three straight defeats, whereas Bnei Yehuda is on a three-game winning streak. All figures are presented exactly once, with no repetition.
Results analysis
The match saw Bnei Yehuda extend their three-game winning run, while Hapoel Acre struggled after a string of defeats. The final score was 1-3, an away win that matched the model’s favourite prediction of an away victory, which the model picked correctly with a 40% probability. The model also selected Over 1.5 goals, a 80.8% chance that proved a hit. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 fell short, but the actual 1-3 result still fell within the predicted total range. Overall, the model’s call and its key selection both came through, confirming its accuracy for this Liga Leumit fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hapoel Acre win✗ Miss
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda win✓ Hit
40.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hapoel Acre
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.33
1.53
1.35
1.62
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.57
1.33
1.53
1.35
1.62
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Yehuda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bnei Yehuda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.17
1.88
1.12
1.64
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.88
1.17
1.92
1.08
1.82
1.27
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
1.17
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Acre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
6.9%
0-2
6.3%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
6.2%
1-0
6.0%
Hapoel Acre goals ↓
Bnei Yehuda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
6.9%
6.3%
3.3%
1.3%
1
6.0%
12%
8.8%
4.6%
1.8%
2
5.0%
7.9%
6.2%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.4%
3.7%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hapoel Acre goals (down), columns = Bnei Yehuda goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hapoel Petah Tikva
2.38
Hapoel Tel Aviv
2.38
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.92
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Hapoel Acre
1.49
Maccabi Herzliya
1.38
Kafr Qasim
1.35
Bnei Yehuda
1.35
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.30
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.27
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.24
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.16
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.11
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
0.92
Hapoel Afula
0.70
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
0.62
Nordia Jerusalem
0.00
Hapoel Acre is 0.14 points better than Bnei Yehuda in terms of average points per game (1.49 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Tel Aviv
2.11
Nordia Jerusalem
2.00
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.92
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.76
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.73
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.68
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Bnei Yehuda
1.32
Maccabi Herzliya
1.24
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.19
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.16
Hapoel Acre
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.08
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.08
Kafr Qasim
0.95
Hapoel Afula
0.81
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
0.78
Hapoel Acre is 0.19 goals worse than Bnei Yehuda in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Petah Tikva
0.54
Hapoel Tel Aviv
0.68
Kafr Qasim
0.89
Hapoel Ramat Gan
0.95
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.22
Hapoel Acre
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.32
Bnei Yehuda
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.43
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.43
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.49
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.53
Hapoel Afula
1.65
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.73
Maccabi Herzliya
1.73
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.92
Nordia Jerusalem
5.00
Hapoel Acre is 0.05 goals better than Bnei Yehuda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hapoel Acre
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.53
0.71
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.57
0.57
0.53
0.71
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Yehuda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bnei Yehuda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
1.06
0.56
0.79
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.54
1.00
0.54
0.91
0.55
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.33
1.33
0.67
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Acre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hapoel Acre over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Acre over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Acre over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hapoel Acre
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
1.00
0.65
1.00
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.00
0.77
1.00
0.65
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Yehuda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bnei Yehuda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
0.81
0.56
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.62
0.92
0.54
0.91
0.73
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
0.33
0.67
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Acre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hapoel Acre over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Acre over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Acre over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HTA (27)
€18m
HPT (22)
€6m
HRG (26)
€5m
BY (26)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Hapoel Acre's squad is €2m less valuable than Bnei Yehuda's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HTA (13)
€11m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Hapoel Acre's attack is €1m less valuable than Bnei Yehuda's (€0m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HTA (4)
€2m
HPT (5)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
BY (5)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Hapoel Acre and Bnei Yehuda have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HTA (10)
€5m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
BY (12)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
Hapoel Acre and Bnei Yehuda have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →