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Hatayspor vs Vanspor FK Result & Analysis

Date: 01/05/2026
Time: 11:30
Final 3-1
Hatayspor
Hatayspor
Vs
16%
21%
63%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
Turkey: 1. Lig
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Hatayspor a 16% win probability against Vanspor FK in the Turkey: 1. Lig on 2026-05-01, with 21% for the draw and 63% for Vanspor FK. The model estimates around 3.3 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-2 the most likely scoreline (9.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (85%), Over 21.5 fouls (81%).

Results analysis

Hatayspor finished 3-1 against Vanspor FK (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 16% home win, 21% draw and 63% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (85%), Over 21.5 fouls (81%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hatayspor win✓ Hit
16.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vanspor FK win✗ Miss
62.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HataysporHatayspor

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L13L12L03L03L14L40W04L11D24LH·BOD28/02A·ÇOR07/03H·SIV11/03A·ERZ15/03H·AME22/03A·PEN03/04H·ADA07/04A·SAR11/04H·SAK18/04A·SER25/04
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.702.800.732.330.673.27
vs Stronger (24)0.463.040.502.670.423.42
vs Similar (6)1.671.831.671.001.672.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %3% (-27pp vs league)
This opponent (Vanspor FK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vanspor FKVanspor FK

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-603L11D10W12L00D03L61W01L21W13LH·ERZ28/02A·PEN06/03H·ADA10/03A·SAK15/03H·SAR22/03A·KEÇ04/04A·SER08/04H·MAN12/04A·ÜMR19/04H·İST25/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.271.441.001.641.57
vs Stronger (6)1.500.833.000.670.001.00
vs Similar (21)1.331.480.821.271.901.70
vs Weaker (3)3.000.672.500.004.002.00
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hatayspor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.2%
Under 1.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.4%
Under 2.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.3%
Under 3.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.7%
No
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.8%
1-1
9.6%
0-2
9.1%
1-3
7.3%
0-1
7.3%
0-3
6.8%
2-2
5.3%
2-1
4.7%
Hatayspor goals ↓
Vanspor FK goals →
01234
04.5%7.3%9.1%6.8%3.8%
13.0%9.6%9.8%7.3%4.1%
22.1%4.7%5.3%3.9%2.2%
30.7%1.7%1.9%1.4%0.8%
40.2%0.4%0.5%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hatayspor goals (down), columns = Vanspor FK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Erzurumspor FK
2.13
Amed
1.95
Çorum FK
1.90
Esenler Erokspor
1.90
Bodrum FK
1.71
Pendikspor
1.62
Bandırmaspor
1.58
Keçiörengücü
1.54
Manisa F.K.
1.45
İstanbulspor
1.37
Sarıyer
1.37
Sivasspor
1.35
Iğdır FK
1.32
Vanspor FK
1.29
Boluspor
1.26
Ümraniyespor
1.21
Serik Spor
1.03
Sakaryaspor
0.92
Hatayspor
0.37
Adana Demirspor
0.16
Hatayspor is 0.92 points worse than Vanspor FK in terms of average points per game (0.37 vs 1.29).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Erzurumspor FK
2.16
Amed
2.13
Esenler Erokspor
2.08
Keçiörengücü
1.87
Bodrum FK
1.80
Boluspor
1.61
Çorum FK
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.50
İstanbulspor
1.50
Pendikspor
1.49
Vanspor FK
1.37
Iğdır FK
1.37
Ümraniyespor
1.24
Bandırmaspor
1.24
Sakaryaspor
1.22
Sivasspor
1.19
Serik Spor
1.16
Sarıyer
1.16
Hatayspor
0.87
Adana Demirspor
0.58
Hatayspor is 0.50 goals worse than Vanspor FK in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 1.37).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Erzurumspor FK
0.71
Bandırmaspor
0.89
Pendikspor
0.90
Esenler Erokspor
0.95
Çorum FK
0.95
Bodrum FK
0.98
Amed
1.11
Keçiörengücü
1.13
Sarıyer
1.16
Sivasspor
1.16
Vanspor FK
1.24
Ümraniyespor
1.34
Iğdır FK
1.42
İstanbulspor
1.45
Manisa F.K.
1.47
Boluspor
1.50
Sakaryaspor
1.86
Serik Spor
1.97
Hatayspor
2.68
Adana Demirspor
4.45
Hatayspor is 1.45 goals worse than Vanspor FK in terms of goals conceded per game (2.68 vs 1.24).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Çorum FK
59%
Esenler Erokspor
58%
Boluspor
57%
Iğdır FK
56%
Erzurumspor FK
56%
Vanspor FK
55%
Amed
53%
Pendikspor
52%
Sivasspor
50%
Bodrum FK
49%
İstanbulspor
48%
Sarıyer
48%
Keçiörengücü
48%
Ümraniyespor
47%
Sakaryaspor
47%
Hatayspor
46%
Manisa F.K.
46%
Bandırmaspor
45%
Serik Spor
41%
Adana Demirspor
38%
Hatayspor is 8.9 percentage points worse than Vanspor FK in terms of average possession (46% vs 55%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

HataysporHatayspor

For 2.5 · Against 5.5 · Total 8.0

🚩 Corners

140542272213153984113269474461212148A·SERH·SAKA·SARH·ADAA·PENH·AMEA·ERZH·SIVA·ÇORH·BOD
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.2 · Total 4.0

🟨 Cards

705123131522121241226244733254A·SERH·SAKA·SARH·ADAA·PENH·AMEA·ERZH·SIVA·ÇORH·BOD
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 12.5 · Total 26.1

⚠️ Fouls

35016111322149812151315151381791312121427352320283021262526A·SERH·SAKA·SARH·ADAA·PENH·AMEA·ERZH·SIVA·ÇORH·BOD
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Vanspor FKVanspor FK

For 5.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.8

🚩 Corners

120833471576365261021775117812911812812H·İSTA·ÜMRH·MANA·SERA·KEÇH·SARA·SAKH·ADAA·PENH·ERZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.4

🟨 Cards

9013112342334361111224137579224H·İSTA·ÜMRH·MANA·SERA·KEÇH·SARA·SAKH·ADAA·PENH·ERZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 14.1 · Total 27.8

⚠️ Fouls

330151812811991515161219161714101815151433202024313133243329H·İSTA·ÜMRH·MANA·SERA·KEÇH·SARA·SAKH·ADAA·PENH·ERZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

HataysporHatayspor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.08.49.44.84.55.123.625.022.5
vs Stronger (41)8.98.29.54.74.84.623.825.922.0
vs Similar (9)9.39.59.25.63.07.623.020.824.8
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line42%43%41%66%61%70%60%65%56%
% under line58%57%59%34%39%30%40%35%44%
This opponent (Vanspor FK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vanspor FKVanspor FK

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (37)8.48.97.95.24.95.528.427.629.3
vs Stronger (10)7.37.27.45.15.44.827.826.629.0
vs Similar (24)8.89.38.35.55.06.029.028.129.9
vs Weaker (3)8.710.55.03.03.03.025.727.023.0
% over line35%42%28%73%79%67%92%89%94%
% under line65%58%72%27%21%33%8%11%6%
This opponent (Hatayspor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Sivasspor
9.4
Bandırmaspor
9.3
Iğdır FK
9.2
Adana Demirspor
9.2
Bodrum FK
9.1
Amed
9.1
Ümraniyespor
9.0
Çorum FK
9.0
Hatayspor
9.0
Serik Spor
8.9
Esenler Erokspor
8.7
Pendikspor
8.6
Manisa F.K.
8.6
Erzurumspor FK
8.5
Sakaryaspor
8.5
Vanspor FK
8.4
İstanbulspor
8.4
Keçiörengücü
8.3
Boluspor
8.1
Sarıyer
8.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Sakaryaspor
5.4
Çorum FK
5.2
Pendikspor
5.2
Sarıyer
5.2
Vanspor FK
5.2
Sivasspor
5.2
Erzurumspor FK
5.1
Boluspor
5.1
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Amed
5.0
Keçiörengücü
5.0
Hatayspor
4.8
Manisa F.K.
4.8
Bandırmaspor
4.7
Iğdır FK
4.7
İstanbulspor
4.7
Ümraniyespor
4.4
Serik Spor
4.4
Bodrum FK
4.1
Adana Demirspor
3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Vanspor FK
28.4
Pendikspor
26.6
Boluspor
25.9
Sakaryaspor
25.8
Erzurumspor FK
24.2
Keçiörengücü
24.2
Bodrum FK
24.0
Ümraniyespor
23.7
Hatayspor
23.6
Bandırmaspor
23.6
Sivasspor
23.5
Manisa F.K.
23.4
İstanbulspor
23.4
Sarıyer
23.4
Serik Spor
23.2
Iğdır FK
23.2
Çorum FK
23.0
Esenler Erokspor
22.7
Amed
22.1
Adana Demirspor
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
30.3%
Under 9.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.6%
Under 3.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
80.9%
Under 21.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls80.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (35)
€18m
IF (38)
€14m
EF (29)
€13m
MF (27)
€12m
SIV (25)
€11m
AME (26)
€11m
İST (37)
€11m
ÇF (32)
€10m
SS (44)
€10m
VF (31)
€10m
EE (25)
€10m
PEN (23)
€9m
BAN (29)
€9m
HAT (38)
€8m
ÜMR (26)
€8m
BOL (28)
€8m
SAK (30)
€8m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
AD (30)
€3m
Hatayspor's squad is €1m less valuable than Vanspor FK's (€8m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (14)
€9m
ÇF (13)
€6m
SIV (7)
€5m
VF (13)
€5m
SAK (12)
€5m
AME (8)
€4m
IF (14)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (12)
€4m
EE (9)
€4m
BAN (10)
€4m
EF (10)
€4m
HAT (15)
€4m
ÜMR (6)
€3m
SS (16)
€3m
PEN (7)
€3m
BOL (8)
€3m
SAR (7)
€2m
KEÇ (8)
€2m
AD (11)
€1m
Hatayspor's attack is €1m less valuable than Vanspor FK's (€4m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€4m
EF (5)
€4m
BF (8)
€3m
AME (7)
€3m
VF (6)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (6)
€2m
PEN (6)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
HAT (8)
€2m
BOL (8)
€2m
SS (10)
€2m
İST (8)
€2m
BAN (5)
€2m
SAK (6)
€2m
KEÇ (6)
€1m
ÇF (5)
€1m
EE (5)
€1m
SAR (4)
€1m
AD (5)
€0m
Hatayspor and Vanspor FK have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (13)
€6m
IF (15)
€5m
SS (18)
€5m
EF (14)
€5m
İST (17)
€5m
MF (10)
€5m
EE (11)
€5m
SIV (12)
€4m
AME (11)
€4m
BOL (12)
€3m
PEN (10)
€3m
ÇF (14)
€3m
ÜMR (13)
€3m
BAN (14)
€3m
HAT (15)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
VF (12)
€2m
SAK (12)
€2m
AD (14)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
Hatayspor and Vanspor FK have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Hatayspor vs Vanspor FK · H/A from HAT
DateH/AGameScore
27/12/25AVanspor FK Vs HAT4-0

HataysporHatayspor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26ASerik Spor Vs HAT4-2
18/04/26HHAT Vs Sakaryaspor1-1
11/04/26ASarıyer Vs HAT4-0
07/04/26HHAT Vs Adana Demirspor4-0
03/04/26APendikspor Vs HAT4-1
22/03/26HHAT Vs Amed0-3
15/03/26AErzurumspor FK Vs HAT3-0
11/03/26HHAT Vs Sivasspor1-2
07/03/26AÇorum FK Vs HAT3-1
28/02/26HHAT Vs Bodrum FK1-3

Vanspor FKVanspor FK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HVF Vs İstanbulspor1-3
19/04/26AÜmraniyespor Vs VF1-2
12/04/26HVF Vs Manisa F.K.0-1
08/04/26ASerik Spor Vs VF1-6
04/04/26AKeçiörengücü Vs VF3-0
22/03/26HVF Vs Sarıyer0-0
15/03/26ASakaryaspor Vs VF2-1
10/03/26HVF Vs Adana Demirspor1-0
06/03/26APendikspor Vs VF1-1
28/02/26HVF Vs Erzurumspor FK0-3

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Hatayspor
Hatayspor
Turkey: 1. Lig
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL0.48
HomeLLLWD0.61
AwayLLLLL0.37
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %10%13%7%
AVG goals3.723.433.96
Over 1.5 %92%91%93%
Over 2.5 %76%70%81%
Over 3.5 %54%48%59%
Scored1.061.131.00
Conceded2.662.302.96
BTTS58%57%59%
Clean Sheet4%4%4%
Corners8.988.439.44
Cards4.844.485.15
Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
Turkey: 1. Lig
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.32
HomeLWDLL1.47
AwayDLLWW1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%42%28%
AVG goals2.572.262.89
Over 1.5 %68%58%78%
Over 2.5 %51%47%56%
Over 3.5 %27%26%28%
Scored1.381.321.44
Conceded1.190.951.44
BTTS49%37%61%
Clean Sheet27%37%17%
Corners8.418.897.89
Cards5.194.895.50

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Erzurumspor FKErzurumspor FK3881
61%
2.1
8227+55
2.9
92%
45%
24%
8.4
37%
4.5
67%
22.6
50%
13
4452.20.7
56%
2Çorum FKÇorum FK4280
57%
1.9
6740+27
2.5
74%
45%
31%
9.5
55%
5.0
78%
23.0
60%
10
6131.61.0
59%
3Esenler EroksporEsenler Erokspor3974
54%
1.9
8137+44
3.0
82%
54%
38%
8.6
33%
5.0
79%
23.2
64%
10
4152.10.9
58%
4AmedAmed3874
55%
1.9
8142+39
3.2
87%
58%
32%
9.2
34%
4.8
67%
22.1
50%
11
4342.11.1
53%
5Bodrum FKBodrum FK4170
49%
1.7
7440+34
2.8
76%
46%
34%
8.7
37%
4.1
59%
24.3
71%
18
9361.81.0
49%
6PendiksporPendikspor3963
41%
1.6
5835+23
2.4
79%
33%
18%
8.3
36%
5.4
76%
27.2
90%
9
3231.50.9
52%
7KeçiörengücüKeçiörengücü3960
41%
1.5
7344+29
3.0
72%
59%
38%
8.1
31%
4.6
68%
23.5
74%
6
2131.91.1
48%
8BandırmasporBandırmaspor3860
42%
1.6
4734+13
2.1
68%
34%
16%
9.3
47%
4.5
61%
22.1
55%
9
4231.20.9
45%
9Manisa F.K.Manisa F.K.3855
42%
1.4
5756+1
3.0
76%
55%
34%
8.8
39%
5.1
76%
23.4
61%
12
4351.51.5
46%
10İstanbulsporİstanbulspor3852
34%
1.4
5755+2
2.9
71%
58%
45%
8.4
42%
4.6
62%
22.7
58%
11
4251.51.4
48%
11SarıyerSarıyer3852
39%
1.4
4444+0
2.3
71%
53%
16%
8.0
32%
5.1
68%
23.3
58%
5
2121.21.2
48%
12SivassporSivasspor3750
35%
1.4
4443+1
2.4
65%
41%
22%
9.4
46%
4.8
69%
23.8
59%
11
5241.21.2
50%
13Iğdır FKIğdır FK3850
34%
1.3
5254-2
2.8
82%
53%
24%
8.9
45%
5.2
75%
22.8
58%
14
4451.41.4
56%
14Vanspor FKVanspor FK3849
34%
1.3
5247+5
2.6
68%
53%
29%
8.4
34%
5.2
74%
28.3
92%
10
5321.41.2
55%
15BolusporBoluspor3848
37%
1.3
6157+4
3.1
82%
53%
37%
8.4
39%
5.1
69%
26.3
71%
8
3231.61.5
57%
16ÜmraniyesporÜmraniyespor3846
34%
1.2
4751-4
2.6
68%
45%
29%
8.6
29%
4.4
57%
22.9
61%
8
3231.21.3
47%
17Serik SporSerik Spor3839
29%
1.0
4475-31
3.1
74%
63%
42%
8.9
39%
4.4
68%
23.4
55%
10
3251.22.0
41%
18SakaryasporSakaryaspor3734
22%
0.9
4569-24
3.1
89%
51%
38%
8.7
32%
5.5
75%
25.2
70%
8
5221.21.9
47%
19HataysporHatayspor3814
5%
0.4
33102-69
3.6
95%
76%
53%
8.2
32%
5.1
68%
24.7
68%
8
4230.92.7
46%
20Adana DemirsporAdana Demirspor386
3%
0.2
22169-147
5.0
97%
95%
79%
8.7
34%
3.2
38%
20.1
34%
3
1020.64.4
38%
Turkey: 1. Lig 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →

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