Haugesund faces Raufoss in a Norway: 1. Division match on August 9th. The recent form of the teams is a key storyline, with Haugesund coming off a win and Raufoss coming off a defeat. However, the model suggests an away win for Raufoss, with a 44% probability of victory, while Haugesund has a 30% chance of winning and a 26% chance of drawing.
The expected total goals in this match is 3.0, which indicates a potentially high-scoring encounter. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.2%. In terms of Haugesund's performance, they have scored 0.67 goals on average at home and conceded 2.0 goals, while Raufoss has scored 1.5 goals on average away and conceded 2.2 goals.
The model's selection is an Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.4% probability. The model also suggests a draw, with a 26% probability. The probabilities of a Haugesund win, draw, and Raufoss win are 30%, 26%, and 44%, respectively.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Haugesund's 7-2 thrashing of Raufoss extends their 2-game winning run. The model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 44%. Meanwhile, the model's pick of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 81.4%. The model's call on the favourite was also off, as Raufoss was the pre-match favourite. The final score far exceeded the expected total of 3 goals, and the most likely scores of 1-1, 1-2, and 2-1 were all missed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Haugesund win✓ Hit
30.3%
Avg Implied 70.0% · @ 1.31
Edge
-39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.35
Dafabet
1.34
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 16.5% · @ 5.54
Edge
+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.29
1xBet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.90
Dafabet
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
Raufoss win✗ Miss
43.6%
Avg Implied 13.4% · @ 6.83
Edge
+30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
7.82
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.39
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Haugesund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.50
0.87
2.53
1.13
2.47
vs Stronger (16)
0.88
2.56
1.00
2.67
0.71
2.43
vs Similar (14)
1.14
2.43
0.67
2.33
1.50
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raufoss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.90
1.00
1.43
1.50
2.31
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
2.13
0.50
1.38
0.86
3.00
vs Similar (15)
1.87
1.67
1.67
1.50
2.00
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.4%
@ 1.05-7.2%
Under 1.5
18.6%
@ 8.11+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.07
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Under
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
888Sport
9.00
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.9%
@ 1.22-17.8%
Under 2.5
42.1%
@ 3.82+17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.09
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.5%
@ 1.62-22.1%
Under 3.5
64.5%
@ 2.20+22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.71
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.62
888Sport
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Under
Betfair
2.38
Pinnacle
2.29
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.24
Bet365
2.20
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.1%
@ 1.42-3.9%
No
38.9%
@ 2.64+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
No
Betfair
2.80
William Hil
2.70
BetVictor
2.70
888Sport
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 11.98+8.4%
1-2
9.2%@ 19.42+6.9%
2-1
7.5%@ 8.40+2.2%
0-1
7.1%@ 33.35+5.7%
0-2
6.8%@ 50.74+5.9%
2-2
6.2%@ 13.19+2.8%
0-0
6.0%@ 33.22+4.7%
1-0
5.6%@ 13.79+2.3%
Haugesund goals ↓
Raufoss goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
7.1%
6.8%
3.7%
1.5%
1
5.6%
12%
9.2%
5.1%
2.1%
2
4.5%
7.5%
6.2%
3.4%
1.4%
3
2.0%
3.4%
2.8%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Haugesund goals (down), columns = Raufoss goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Haugesund is 1.64 points better than Raufoss in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Haugesund is 2.14 goals better than Raufoss in terms of goals scored per game (3.14 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Haugesund is 1.43 goals better than Raufoss in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Haugesund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.03
0.40
1.00
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
0.88
0.33
0.89
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.21
0.50
1.17
0.62
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raufoss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.50
0.71
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.67
0.25
0.62
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.87
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Haugesund over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Haugesund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.47
0.47
1.53
0.60
1.40
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
1.69
0.67
1.78
0.29
1.57
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.21
0.17
1.17
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raufoss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.13
0.50
0.71
0.75
1.50
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
1.47
0.25
0.75
0.43
2.29
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.80
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Haugesund over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.4%
1.05
Unibet
1.07
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-7.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Haugesund · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sory Diarra24%
Runar Espejord14%
Ilir Kukleci14%
Havard Karlsen10%
Claus Niyukuri9%
Emil Rohd8%
Julius Eskesen8%
Niko Hämäläinen8%
Ismaël Seone6%
Sander Innvær6%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Madiodio Dia4%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Morten Agnes Konradsen0%
Amund Wichne0%
Bruno Leite0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Parfait Bizoza0%
Miika Koskela0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miika Koskela38%
Bruno Leite29%
Martin Alvsaker25%
Julius Eskesen23%
Madiodio Dia22%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug18%
Niko Hämäläinen15%
Ilir Kukleci14%
Troy Nyhammer14%
Mikkel Fischer12%
Parfait Bizoza10%
Emil Rohd8%
Pyry Hannola8%
Oscar Krusnell7%
Morten Agnes Konradsen6%
Ismael Camara6%
Sory Diarra5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Claus Niyukuri4%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Amund Wichne0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Runar Espejord0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Sander Innvær0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jasper Silva Torkildsen33%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug9%
Claus Niyukuri9%
Niko Hämäläinen8%
Pyry Hannola8%
Anders Bondhus7%
Bruno Leite5%
Sory Diarra5%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Parfait Bizoza3%
Julius Eskesen0%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Morten Agnes Konradsen0%
Amund Wichne0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Runar Espejord0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Miika Koskela0%
Ilir Kukleci0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Sander Innvær0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Emil Rohd0%
Mikkel Hope0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Madiodio Dia0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Runar Espejord29%
Julius Eskesen15%
Morten Agnes Konradsen12%
Sory Diarra10%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug9%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Parfait Bizoza3%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Amund Wichne0%
Bruno Leite0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Niko Hämäläinen0%
Miika Koskela0%
Ilir Kukleci0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Claus Niyukuri0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Sander Innvær0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Emil Rohd0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Madiodio Dia0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Haugesund's squad is €6m more valuable than Raufoss's (€9m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Haugesund's attack is €2m more valuable than Raufoss's (€3m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Haugesund's midfield is €1m more valuable than Raufoss's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Haugesund's defence is €2m more valuable than Raufoss's (€4m vs €1m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
hodd
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Moss