Haugesund’s recent 3-0 win over Egersund fuels the model’s confidence that they will secure the home win, the single most likely outcome. The model rates a 62% chance for a home victory, 19% for a draw and 20% for a Strommen win. The expected total of 4.3 goals signals a high-scoring affair, with the most probable total being 6 + goals at 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1, carrying an 8% chance.
At home, Haugesund averages 1.75 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against similarly-matched opponents, while Strommen, on the road, averages 2.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s suggested picks reflect this offensive tilt: Home over 0.5 goals (93.4%), Over 1.5 (93.2%), Under 7.5 (93.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.7%), Home +2 handicap (90.9%), Under 6.5 (85.9%), Home or Away (81.5%), and Home or Draw (80.1%). All selections are presented with their exact probabilities, and no other outcomes are assigned win probabilities.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Haugesund win
57.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Strommen win
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Haugesund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.37
1.38
2.25
1.36
2.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
2.62
1.00
2.50
0.80
2.80
vs Similar (17)
1.71
2.18
1.75
2.00
1.67
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Strommen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strommen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.38
1.92
1.86
2.29
3.00
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
4.00
5.00
4.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.70
1.70
1.50
1.83
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
5.00
1.50
-
-
5.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
15% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.6%
Under 1.5
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
78.5%
Under 2.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
59.8%
Under 3.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
74.4%
No
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.2%
1-1
7.0%
3-1
7.0%
2-2
6.6%
3-2
5.6%
1-2
5.1%
2-0
5.1%
4-1
4.5%
Haugesund goals ↓
Strommen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
1.9%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
1
3.3%
7.0%
5.1%
2.7%
1.1%
2
5.1%
8.2%
6.6%
3.5%
1.4%
3
4.4%
7.0%
5.6%
3.0%
1.2%
4
2.8%
4.5%
3.6%
1.9%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Haugesund goals (down), columns = Strommen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Haugesund is 0.48 points better than Strommen in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Haugesund is 1.14 goals better than Strommen in terms of goals scored per game (3.14 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Haugesund is 0.26 goals better than Strommen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Haugesund or Draw
77.5%
Avg Implied -
58%
20%
23%
covers Haugesund + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Haugesund or Strommen
80.3%
Avg Implied -
58%
20%
23%
covers Haugesund + Strommen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Strommen
42.2%
Avg Implied -
58%
20%
23%
covers Draw + Strommen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Haugesund over/under 0.5
Over
92.3%
Under
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 1.5
Over
72.5%
Under
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 2.5
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 3.5
Over
25.6%
Under
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 0.5
Over
79.9%
Under
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 1.5
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 2.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 3.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Haugesund, so a minus line means Haugesund give that many goals of a start and Strommen receive them. At -1, Haugesund must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Haugesund win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Haugesund)
Haugesund -2
21.5%
Draw -2
16.8%
Strommen +2
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Haugesund)
Haugesund -1
38.3%
Draw -1
19.5%
Strommen +1
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Haugesund)
Haugesund +1
77.5%
Draw +1
11.9%
Strommen -1
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Haugesund)
Haugesund +2
89.4%
Draw +2
6.6%
Strommen -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Haugesund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.81
0.88
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.77
0.38
0.75
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (17)
0.88
1.06
1.25
1.00
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Strommen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strommen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.85
1.00
0.71
1.29
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.80
0.83
0.83
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
54% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Haugesund over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Haugesund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.43
0.56
1.38
0.79
1.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.85
0.62
1.75
0.20
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
1.12
0.50
1.00
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Strommen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strommen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.54
0.92
1.14
1.00
2.00
0.83
vs Stronger (1)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.90
0.67
1.00
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
1.00
-
-
3.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Haugesund over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Haugesund · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sory Diarra24%
Runar Espejord14%
Ilir Kukleci14%
Havard Karlsen10%
Claus Niyukuri9%
Emil Rohd8%
Julius Eskesen8%
Niko Hämäläinen8%
Ismaël Seone6%
Sander Innvær6%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Madiodio Dia4%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Morten Agnes Konradsen0%
Amund Wichne0%
Bruno Leite0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Parfait Bizoza0%
Miika Koskela0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miika Koskela38%
Bruno Leite29%
Martin Alvsaker25%
Julius Eskesen23%
Madiodio Dia22%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug18%
Niko Hämäläinen15%
Ilir Kukleci14%
Troy Nyhammer14%
Mikkel Fischer12%
Parfait Bizoza10%
Emil Rohd8%
Pyry Hannola8%
Oscar Krusnell7%
Morten Agnes Konradsen6%
Ismael Camara6%
Sory Diarra5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Claus Niyukuri4%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Amund Wichne0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Runar Espejord0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Sander Innvær0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jasper Silva Torkildsen33%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug9%
Claus Niyukuri9%
Niko Hämäläinen8%
Pyry Hannola8%
Anders Bondhus7%
Bruno Leite5%
Sory Diarra5%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Parfait Bizoza3%
Julius Eskesen0%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Morten Agnes Konradsen0%
Amund Wichne0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Runar Espejord0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Miika Koskela0%
Ilir Kukleci0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Sander Innvær0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Emil Rohd0%
Mikkel Hope0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Madiodio Dia0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Runar Espejord29%
Julius Eskesen15%
Morten Agnes Konradsen12%
Sory Diarra10%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug9%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Parfait Bizoza3%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Amund Wichne0%
Bruno Leite0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Niko Hämäläinen0%
Miika Koskela0%
Ilir Kukleci0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Claus Niyukuri0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Sander Innvær0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Emil Rohd0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Madiodio Dia0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Haugesund's squad is €7m more valuable than Strommen's (€9m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Haugesund's attack is €2m more valuable than Strommen's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Haugesund's midfield is €2m more valuable than Strommen's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Haugesund's defence is €3m more valuable than Strommen's (€4m vs €1m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Stabaek
hodd
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Raufoss
Moss