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Haverfordwest County AFC vs Briton Ferry Result & Analysis

Date: 04/01/2025
Time: 14:30
Final 5-1
Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Vs
55%
27%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Briton Ferry
Briton Ferry
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Haverfordwest County AFC win✓ Hit
55.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry win✗ Miss
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D41W12L11D00D01L02L20W10WH·TRE19/10H·CAE26/10H·FLI02/11A·THE10/11A·AMM16/11H·BAL23/11A·PEN03/12H·LLA13/12A·NEW26/12H·ABE01/01
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.531.060.501.070.57
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.000.501.002.00
vs Similar (26)1.150.461.210.501.080.42
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L40W01L12L31W12L21W25L31W00DA·GAP27/10H·ABE02/11H·CAE09/11A·MOL16/11H·THE20/11A·FLI23/11H·NEW03/12A·THE22/12A·CAR26/12H·BAR31/12
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.631.601.471.871.80
vs Stronger (3)2.332.673.001.002.003.50
vs Similar (24)1.461.711.081.751.831.67
vs Weaker (3)3.330.004.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.9%
Under 2.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-0
12.3%
2-0
11.2%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.3%
3-0
6.2%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.3%
Haverfordwest County AFC goals ↓
Briton Ferry goals →
01234
09.3%5.8%2.9%0.8%0.2%
112%13%4.9%1.4%0.3%
211%9.5%4.1%1.2%0.2%
36.2%5.3%2.2%0.6%0.1%
42.6%2.2%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Haverfordwest County AFC goals (down), columns = Briton Ferry goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.44
Penybont
2.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.64
Barry Town
1.58
Caernarfon Town
1.49
Cardiff MET
1.41
Flint Town United
1.31
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.31
Bala Town
1.12
Briton Ferry
1.00
Newtown AFC
0.81
Aberystwyth Town
0.66
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.64 points better than Briton Ferry in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.00).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.78
Penybont
1.75
Barry Town
1.73
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Flint Town United
1.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.47
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.29
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.27
Bala Town
1.15
Newtown AFC
1.12
Aberystwyth Town
0.88
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.16 goals worse than Briton Ferry in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.44).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.82
The New Saints
0.97
Penybont
1.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.09
Bala Town
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.35
Caernarfon Town
1.60
Barry Town
1.70
Flint Town United
1.94
Briton Ferry
2.03
Newtown AFC
2.03
Aberystwyth Town
2.22
Haverfordwest County AFC is 1.21 goals better than Briton Ferry in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 2.03).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D21W11D10W00D00D01L10W10WH·TRE19/10H·CAE26/10H·FLI02/11A·THE10/11A·AMM16/11H·BAL23/11A·PEN03/12H·LLA13/12A·NEW26/12H·ABE01/01
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.270.500.310.290.21
vs Stronger (3)0.330.670.000.501.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.380.230.570.290.170.17
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L20W01L02L31W00D00D13L11D00DA·GAP27/10H·ABE02/11H·CAE09/11A·MOL16/11H·THE20/11A·FLI23/11H·NEW03/12A·THE22/12A·CAR26/12H·BAR31/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.830.870.600.871.07
vs Stronger (3)2.001.673.001.001.502.00
vs Similar (24)0.620.830.500.670.751.00
vs Weaker (3)1.670.002.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D20W01L01L00D01L01L10W00DH·TRE19/10H·CAE26/10H·FLI02/11A·THE10/11A·AMM16/11H·BAL23/11A·PEN03/12H·LLA13/12A·NEW26/12H·ABE01/01
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.270.560.190.790.36
vs Stronger (3)0.000.330.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.770.230.640.210.920.25
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W00D10W00D12L21W12L20W00DA·GAP27/10H·ABE02/11H·CAE09/11A·MOL16/11H·THE20/11A·FLI23/11H·NEW03/12A·THE22/12A·CAR26/12H·BAR31/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.800.730.871.000.73
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.000.000.501.50
vs Similar (24)0.830.880.581.081.080.67
vs Weaker (3)1.670.002.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.5%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.572.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Briton Ferry have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Briton Ferry have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Briton Ferry have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Briton Ferry have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
HCA wins
0
Draws
0
BF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Briton Ferry · H/A from HCA
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/24ABriton Ferry Vs HCA1-2

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/01/25HHCA Vs Aberystwyth Town1-0
26/12/24ANewtown AFC Vs HCA0-2
13/12/24HHCA Vs llanelli AFC0-2
03/12/24APenybont Vs HCA1-0
23/11/24HHCA Vs Bala Town0-0
16/11/24AAmmanford AFC Vs HCA1-1
10/11/24AThe New Saints Vs HCA2-1
02/11/24HHCA Vs Flint Town United4-1
26/10/24HHCA Vs Caernarfon Town0-0
19/10/24HHCA Vs Trethomas Bluebirds0-0

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/12/24HBF Vs Barry Town0-0
26/12/24ACardiff MET Vs BF1-3
22/12/24AThe New Saints Vs BF5-2
03/12/24HBF Vs Newtown AFC2-1
23/11/24AFlint Town United Vs BF2-1
20/11/24HBF Vs The New Saints3-1
16/11/24AMold Alexandra Vs BF2-1
09/11/24HBF Vs Caernarfon Town0-1
02/11/24HBF Vs Aberystwyth Town4-0
27/10/24AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs BF2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWW1.50
HomeDWDLW1.58
AwayWLDLW1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%42%38%
AVG goals2.082.231.92
Over 1.5 %62%62%62%
Over 2.5 %32%38%25%
Over 3.5 %16%27%4%
Scored1.161.350.96
Conceded0.920.880.96
BTTS38%35%42%
Clean Sheet40%46%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Briton Ferry
Briton Ferry
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD1.72
HomeWLWWD2.00
AwayLLLLW1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%62%46%
AVG goals3.783.753.81
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %80%75%85%
Over 3.5 %52%54%50%
Scored2.182.292.08
Conceded1.601.461.73
BTTS66%62%69%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3278
81%
2.4
8931+58
3.8
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.81.0
-
2PenybontPenybont3264
59%
2.0
5632+24
2.8
69%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.81.0
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3354
42%
1.6
4227+15
2.1
58%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.30.8
-
4Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3552
43%
1.5
5956+3
3.3
86%
66%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.71.6
-
5Barry TownBarry Town3352
45%
1.6
5756+1
3.4
91%
67%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.7
-
6Cardiff METCardiff MET3448
38%
1.4
4446-2
2.6
74%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.4
-
7GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3242
38%
1.3
4735+12
2.6
69%
47%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.1
-
8Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3242
41%
1.3
4862-14
3.4
91%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.9
-
9Bala TownBala Town3337
24%
1.1
3844-6
2.5
70%
45%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.3
-
10Briton FerryBriton Ferry3232
28%
1.0
4665-19
3.5
78%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.0
-
11Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3226
19%
0.8
3665-29
3.2
84%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3221
19%
0.7
2871-43
3.1
81%
66%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
Wales: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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