The clash between Haverfordwest County AFC and Briton Ferry is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 41% for a Haverfordwest victory, 28% for a draw and 31% for a Briton Ferry win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a moderate scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.3% chance. Haverfordwest, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.82 goals scored and 1.09 conceded, while Briton Ferry, on the road, averages 1.31 scored and 1.38 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.4%) and Under 5.5 (94.1%). Haverfordwest’s recent form, a win after four losses, and Briton Ferry’s return from two defeats add further intrigue.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Haverfordwest County AFC win
40.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry win
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Haverfordwest County AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.30
1.71
1.21
1.00
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.38
1.23
1.82
1.09
1.07
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Briton Ferry
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.50
1.13
1.67
1.20
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.23
1.54
1.15
1.69
1.31
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.3%
Under 2.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.4%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.1%
0-1
7.0%
2-2
5.6%
Haverfordwest County AFC goals ↓
Briton Ferry goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
7.0%
5.2%
2.2%
0.7%
1
8.4%
13%
7.6%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.1%
8.9%
5.6%
2.3%
0.7%
3
3.4%
4.3%
2.7%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Haverfordwest County AFC goals (down), columns = Briton Ferry goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.67 points worse than Briton Ferry in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.50 goals worse than Briton Ferry in terms of goals scored per game (0.33 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.33 goals worse than Briton Ferry in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Haverfordwest County AFC or Draw
68.7%
Avg Implied -
41%
28%
31%
covers Haverfordwest County AFC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC or Briton Ferry
72.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
28%
31%
covers Haverfordwest County AFC + Briton Ferry
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Briton Ferry
59.2%
Avg Implied -
41%
28%
31%
covers Draw + Briton Ferry
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5
Over
76.9%
Under
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5
Over
43.1%
Under
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5
Over
71.6%
Under
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5
Over
35.8%
Under
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Haverfordwest County AFC, so a minus line means Haverfordwest County AFC give that many goals of a start and Briton Ferry receive them. At -1, Haverfordwest County AFC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Haverfordwest County AFC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Haverfordwest County AFC)
Haverfordwest County AFC -2
7.8%
Draw -2
12.5%
Briton Ferry +2
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Haverfordwest County AFC)
Haverfordwest County AFC -1
20.3%
Draw -1
20.5%
Briton Ferry +1
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Haverfordwest County AFC)
Haverfordwest County AFC +1
68.7%
Draw +1
17.4%
Briton Ferry -1
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Haverfordwest County AFC)
Haverfordwest County AFC +2
86.1%
Draw +2
9.2%
Briton Ferry -2
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Haverfordwest County AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.50
0.57
0.19
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.58
0.64
0.55
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Briton Ferry
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.58
0.62
0.69
0.62
0.46
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.7%
Under 0.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.9%
Under 1.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.3%
Under 2.5
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Haverfordwest County AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
1.21
0.64
0.81
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.65
1.18
0.55
0.87
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Briton Ferry
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.53
0.87
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.96
0.54
1.00
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.7%
Under 0.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.4%
Under 1.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.3%
Under 2.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.1%
Under
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Briton Ferry have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Briton Ferry have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Briton Ferry have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Briton Ferry have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell