Haverfordwest County AFC, fresh from a 2-1 victory over Trefelin, will face Cardiff MET, who are riding a two-game winning streak that ended with a 5-0 thrashing of Ammanford AFC. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.2 goals expected and a 22% chance of exactly three goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.1% probability. Home advantage is clear: the model favours a home win, with a 51% chance, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 25%. Haverfordwest’s home form shows they score and concede 1.33 goals on average against similar opposition, while Cardiff MET’s away form sees them net 1.67 and concede 2.33. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.6% probability.
Results analysis
Haverfordwest County AFC’s recent win extends their five-match run, while Cardiff MET arrive on a two-game winning streak. The final score was 1-0, a home win that matched the model’s pick and its 51% probability. The expected total of 3.2 goals was far above the actual total of one, a clear under-shooting. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at 83.6%, missed. All other selections are settled, with the only outcome being the correct home win call. The match delivered a tidy 1-0 result, confirming the model’s prediction.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Haverfordwest County AFC win✓ Hit
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Haverfordwest County AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
1.75
1.00
1.33
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
1.67
1.33
1.33
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
2.00
1.50
1.75
1.67
2.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
3.50
1.50
3.50
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
1.40
1.50
0.00
1.67
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.6%
Under 2.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.3%
Under 3.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.4%
No
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.5%
1-0 ✓
6.9%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
5.2%
Haverfordwest County AFC goals ↓
Cardiff MET goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
4.3%
3.4%
1.4%
0.5%
1
6.9%
11%
6.5%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.6%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.8%
6.1%
3.9%
1.7%
0.5%
4
2.3%
2.9%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Haverfordwest County AFC goals (down), columns = Cardiff MET goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
The New Saints
2.59
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Penybont
1.81
Cardiff MET
1.61
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Bala Town
1.33
Newtown AFC
1.32
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Caernarfon Town
1.22
Aberystwyth Town
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Airbus UK
0.06
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.16 points worse than Cardiff MET in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.50
Bala Town
1.61
Penybont
1.59
Caernarfon Town
1.59
Newtown AFC
1.59
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.47
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.41
Flint Town United
1.28
Aberystwyth Town
1.28
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Cardiff MET
1.24
Airbus UK
0.56
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.23 goals better than Cardiff MET in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.72
Penybont
1.00
Bala Town
1.24
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.48
Pontypridd Town
1.62
Flint Town United
1.66
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Newtown AFC
1.74
Aberystwyth Town
2.28
Airbus UK
3.12
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.16 goals better than Cardiff MET in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Haverfordwest County AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.86
0.50
0.75
1.33
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.60
0.50
0.00
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
71% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Haverfordwest County AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
0.86
0.75
0.50
0.67
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar defence value (both €1m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
HCA wins
0
Draws
0
CM wins
Head-to-head
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET · H/A from HCA
Wales: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Penybont
Newtown AFC
Bala Town
Pontypridd Town
Caernarfon Town
Aberystwyth Town
Flint Town United
Airbus UK