Haverfordwest County AFC are set to host Cardiff MET in a match that the model predicts will be high-scoring, with an expected 3.3 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a draw that carries a 10.3% chance. The model favours a home win, giving Haverfordwest a 57% chance of victory, a 23% chance of a draw, and Cardiff a 20% chance of triumph. Haverfordwest’s home form shows they average 1.73 goals scored and 1.18 conceded against similar opposition, while Cardiff, on the road, averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.7% probability. Recent form tells a story: Haverfordwest come off a win after a string of losses, whereas Cardiff are riding a two-game winning streak. This blend of attacking potential and defensive solidity points to a lively encounter, with the model’s selection for the match result firmly favouring a home win.
Results analysis
The match ended in a 1-1 draw, a shock for the pre-match favourite, Haverfordwest County AFC, who were tipped to win with a 57% probability. The model’s call was wrong. Haverfordwest, fresh from a win, had been on a rough run of four defeats, while Cardiff MET, riding a two-game winning streak, had been in better form. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals at 84.7%, was correct, as the match produced two goals. The most likely scoreline, 1-1, matched the actual result, confirming the 22% probability for the 3-goal total. The outcome defied expectations, leaving the favourite on the back foot.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Haverfordwest County AFC win✗ Miss
56.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET win✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Haverfordwest County AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.23
1.85
1.00
1.12
1.41
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.32
1.20
1.73
1.18
1.00
1.21
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
0.50
4.00
0.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.50
1.38
1.12
1.29
1.93
vs Stronger (5)
2.00
3.00
2.00
2.33
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.09
1.26
1.08
0.83
1.09
1.73
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.5%
Under 2.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.3%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.2%
1-0
6.9%
3-1
6.8%
2-2
5.8%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.6%
Haverfordwest County AFC goals ↓
Cardiff MET goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
3.6%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
1
6.9%
10%
5.6%
2.2%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.8%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.7%
6.8%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
4
3.0%
3.5%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Haverfordwest County AFC goals (down), columns = Cardiff MET goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
The New Saints
2.88
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.84
Bala Town
1.59
Penybont
1.53
Caernarfon Town
1.38
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.18
Barry Town
1.00
Pontypridd Town
0.97
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Colwyn Bay
0.78
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.16 points better than Cardiff MET in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.66
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.19
Caernarfon Town
1.68
Penybont
1.53
Newtown AFC
1.48
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.22
Bala Town
1.19
Barry Town
1.12
Colwyn Bay
1.06
Cardiff MET
1.06
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Pontypridd Town
0.72
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.16 goals better than Cardiff MET in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.56
Bala Town
0.97
Penybont
1.18
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.25
Pontypridd Town
1.28
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.55
Barry Town
1.69
Aberystwyth Town
1.78
Cardiff MET
1.97
Colwyn Bay
2.06
Caernarfon Town
2.09
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.72 goals better than Cardiff MET in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Haverfordwest County AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.69
0.46
0.47
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.64
0.73
0.55
0.50
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.56
0.44
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.00
0.67
1.67
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.48
0.50
0.17
0.36
0.82
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Haverfordwest County AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
1.15
0.54
0.65
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.56
1.00
0.64
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
0.81
0.69
0.86
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.00
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.78
0.58
0.67
0.73
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Wales: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Penybont
Bala Town
Caernarfon Town
Newtown AFC
Barry Town
Pontypridd Town
Aberystwyth Town
Colwyn Bay