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Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET Result & Analysis

Date: 21/02/2025
Time: 19:45
Final 1-0
Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Vs
58%
25%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Haverfordwest County AFC are tipped to win, with a 58% chance of taking the match home, 25% for a draw and 17% for a Cardiff MET win. The average goal count sits at 2.6, and the model expects a 2-goal total with a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.1% chance. Haverfordwest, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.62 goals scored and 0.62 conceded, while Cardiff MET away from home averages 1.42 scored and 1.17 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 74.8% probability (missed) and Under 3.5 with a 73.1% probability (hit). The model’s selection of a home win is the favoured result, and the overall shape of the match points to a tight contest with a likely 1-1 draw in the scoreline, but the odds favour Haverfordwest.

Results analysis

Haverfordwest County AFC edged Cardiff MET 1-0, a result that fits the model’s pick of a home win with a 58% probability, and the call proved correct. The win extends Haverfordwest’s recent form, their first of five matches, while Cardiff continues a two-game winning streak. The model’s suggested picks were mixed: the Over 1.5 selection, with a 74.8% chance, missed, whereas the Under 3.5, at 73.1%, hit. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was close, but the actual 1-0 outcome matched the model’s 26% most likely total of two goals. Overall, the predictions were largely accurate, with only the over-goals pick falling short.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Haverfordwest County AFC win✓ Hit
57.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET win✗ Miss
16.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D01L02L20W10W51W11D32W00D11DH·BAL23/11A·PEN03/12H·LLA13/12A·NEW26/12H·ABE01/01H·BRI04/01A·BAR14/01H·BAL25/01A·PEN01/02A·CAE08/02
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.631.400.601.070.67
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.000.501.002.00
vs Similar (26)1.350.581.620.621.080.54
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L30W12L20W13L22D02L21W13L21WH·THE16/11H·ABE23/11A·BAR10/12H·FLI14/12H·BRI26/12A·PEN31/12H·THE14/01H·PEN24/01A·THE01/02H·BAL08/02
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.571.381.691.291.43
vs Stronger (5)0.403.200.333.330.503.00
vs Similar (25)1.521.241.621.311.421.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.7%
Under 2.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.8%
No
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-0 ✓
11.7%
2-0
11.3%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.4%
3-0
6.7%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.1%
Haverfordwest County AFC goals ↓
Cardiff MET goals →
01234
08.4%5.1%2.7%0.8%0.2%
112%12%4.7%1.3%0.3%
211%9.7%4.2%1.2%0.3%
36.7%5.7%2.4%0.7%0.1%
42.9%2.5%1.1%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Haverfordwest County AFC goals (down), columns = Cardiff MET goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.44
Penybont
2.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.64
Barry Town
1.58
Caernarfon Town
1.49
Cardiff MET
1.41
Flint Town United
1.31
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.31
Bala Town
1.12
Briton Ferry
1.00
Newtown AFC
0.81
Aberystwyth Town
0.66
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.22 points better than Cardiff MET in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.41).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.78
Penybont
1.75
Barry Town
1.73
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Flint Town United
1.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.47
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.29
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.27
Bala Town
1.15
Newtown AFC
1.12
Aberystwyth Town
0.88
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.02 goals worse than Cardiff MET in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.29).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.82
The New Saints
0.97
Penybont
1.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.09
Bala Town
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.35
Caernarfon Town
1.60
Barry Town
1.70
Flint Town United
1.94
Briton Ferry
2.03
Newtown AFC
2.03
Aberystwyth Town
2.22
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.53 goals better than Cardiff MET in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.35).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D01L10W10W11D11D11D00D11DH·BAL23/11A·PEN03/12H·LLA13/12A·NEW26/12H·ABE01/01H·BRI04/01A·BAR14/01H·BAL25/01A·PEN01/02A·CAE08/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.370.600.400.400.33
vs Stronger (3)0.330.670.000.501.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.500.350.690.380.310.31
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D10W00D11D01L01L00D11D10WH·THE16/11H·ABE23/11A·BAR10/12H·FLI14/12H·BRI26/12A·PEN31/12H·THE14/01H·PEN24/01A·THE01/02H·BAL08/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.630.500.750.710.50
vs Stronger (5)0.401.400.331.330.501.50
vs Similar (25)0.640.480.540.620.750.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L01L10W00D40W00D21W00D00DH·BAL23/11A·PEN03/12H·LLA13/12A·NEW26/12H·ABE01/01H·BRI04/01A·BAR14/01H·BAL25/01A·PEN01/02A·CAE08/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.270.800.200.670.33
vs Stronger (3)0.000.330.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.850.230.920.230.770.23
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W02L20W02L21W01L21W02L11DH·THE16/11H·ABE23/11A·BAR10/12H·FLI14/12H·BRI26/12A·PEN31/12H·THE14/01H·PEN24/01A·THE01/02H·BAL08/02
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.930.880.940.570.93
vs Stronger (5)0.001.800.002.000.001.50
vs Similar (25)0.880.761.080.690.670.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.8%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.573.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
2
HCA wins
4
Draws
1
CM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET · H/A from HCA
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/24HHCA Vs Cardiff MET1-0
26/08/24ACardiff MET Vs HCA0-0
28/11/23HHCA Vs Cardiff MET1-1
26/09/23ACardiff MET Vs HCA1-1
06/05/23ACardiff MET Vs HCA0-0
16/12/22ACardiff MET Vs HCA2-0
27/09/22HHCA Vs Cardiff MET1-0

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/25ACaernarfon Town Vs HCA1-1
01/02/25APenybont Vs HCA0-0
25/01/25HHCA Vs Bala Town3-2
14/01/25ABarry Town Vs HCA1-1
04/01/25HHCA Vs Briton Ferry5-1
01/01/25HHCA Vs Aberystwyth Town1-0
26/12/24ANewtown AFC Vs HCA0-2
13/12/24HHCA Vs llanelli AFC0-2
03/12/24APenybont Vs HCA1-0
23/11/24HHCA Vs Bala Town0-0

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/25HCM Vs Bala Town2-1
01/02/25AThe New Saints Vs CM3-1
24/01/25HCM Vs Penybont2-1
14/01/25HCM Vs The New Saints0-2
31/12/24APenybont Vs CM2-2
26/12/24HCM Vs Briton Ferry1-3
14/12/24HCM Vs Flint Town United2-0
10/12/24ABarry Town Vs CM2-1
23/11/24HCM Vs Aberystwyth Town3-0
16/11/24HCM Vs The New Saints1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWDD1.60
HomeDLWWW1.76
AwayLWDDD1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%48%36%
AVG goals2.002.321.68
Over 1.5 %60%60%60%
Over 2.5 %28%36%20%
Over 3.5 %14%28%0%
Scored1.241.560.92
Conceded0.760.760.76
BTTS40%40%40%
Clean Sheet40%44%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLW1.34
HomeWLLWW1.44
AwayWLLDL1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%40%36%
AVG goals3.063.202.92
Over 1.5 %84%92%76%
Over 2.5 %68%76%60%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.301.481.12
Conceded1.761.721.80
BTTS62%68%56%
Clean Sheet14%12%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3278
81%
2.4
8931+58
3.8
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.81.0
-
2PenybontPenybont3264
59%
2.0
5632+24
2.8
69%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.81.0
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3354
42%
1.6
4227+15
2.1
58%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.30.8
-
4Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3552
43%
1.5
5956+3
3.3
86%
66%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.71.6
-
5Barry TownBarry Town3352
45%
1.6
5756+1
3.4
91%
67%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.7
-
6Cardiff METCardiff MET3448
38%
1.4
4446-2
2.6
74%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.4
-
7GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3242
38%
1.3
4735+12
2.6
69%
47%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.1
-
8Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3242
41%
1.3
4862-14
3.4
91%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.9
-
9Bala TownBala Town3337
24%
1.1
3844-6
2.5
70%
45%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.3
-
10Briton FerryBriton Ferry3232
28%
1.0
4665-19
3.5
78%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.0
-
11Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3226
19%
0.8
3665-29
3.2
84%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3221
19%
0.7
2871-43
3.1
81%
66%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
Wales: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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