Haverfordwest County AFC’s defensive record at home - just 0.79 goals conceded per game - sets the stage for a tight, low-scoring affair, while Cardiff MET’s away defense has yielded 0.92 goals per match. The model favours a home win, with a 47% chance, followed by a 30% draw and a 23% away win. The average expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal total with a 28% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14% chance. Haverfordwest’s recent form shows a win after a stretch of losses, and Cardiff MET is riding a two-game winning run, yet the model still sees the home side as the favourite. Suggested picks include “Under 3.5” at 81.4%. The match is projected to be a low-scoring draw-heavy contest, but the home side’s superior defensive output gives them the edge.
Results analysis
The upset came as Haverfordwest County AFC, fresh from a win that extended a shaky run, were denied a home victory. The match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s favourite - a home win at 47% - wrong. The model’s prediction was incorrect. Its single suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals at 81.4%, missed, as the total of four goals was well above the threshold. The game saw both sides score twice, with Haverfordwest’s 2-1 win over Trefelin earlier in the week and Cardiff MET’s 5-0 triumph over Ammanford AFC showing contrasting recent form. The result underscores how the model’s odds can be overturned by on-day performances.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Haverfordwest County AFC win✗ Miss
47.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Haverfordwest County AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.07
1.35
1.00
1.00
1.15
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.26
0.70
1.43
0.79
1.00
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.50
1.62
1.75
0.64
1.21
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
3.40
0.33
3.67
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.32
1.12
1.92
1.31
0.67
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.5%
Under 1.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.4%
Under 2.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.6%
Under 3.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.3%
No
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
13.4%
0-0
12.1%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
4.5%
Haverfordwest County AFC goals ↓
Cardiff MET goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.1%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.5%
1.6%
0.3%
2
10.0%
8.6%
3.7%
1.1%
0.2%
3
4.5%
3.9%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.5%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Haverfordwest County AFC goals (down), columns = Cardiff MET goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
The New Saints
2.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.81
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Barry Town
1.42
Briton Ferry
1.41
Caernarfon Town
1.41
Colwyn Bay
1.39
Penybont
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Bala Town
1.00
llanelli AFC
0.41
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.25 points better than Cardiff MET in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Caernarfon Town
1.75
Flint Town United
1.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.34
Barry Town
1.33
Colwyn Bay
1.24
Penybont
1.21
Bala Town
1.03
llanelli AFC
0.53
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.10 goals better than Cardiff MET in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.78
Barry Town
1.03
Colwyn Bay
1.12
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.19
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.35
Bala Town
1.41
Penybont
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.47
Caernarfon Town
1.47
Cardiff MET
1.59
Flint Town United
1.84
llanelli AFC
2.56
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.24 goals better than Cardiff MET in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Haverfordwest County AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.59
0.41
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.17
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.39
0.57
0.36
0.44
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.62
0.69
0.36
0.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.60
0.33
1.67
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.32
0.69
0.46
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Haverfordwest County AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.76
0.59
0.38
0.46
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.30
0.86
0.43
0.56
0.11
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
1.00
1.06
0.29
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.80
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.80
1.23
0.85
0.33
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
LA (2)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Wales: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Barry Town
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
Briton Ferry
Penybont
Flint Town United
Bala Town
llanelli AFC