Haverfordwest County AFC are the clear favourites, the model assigning an 81 % chance to a home win, a 12 % draw and only 7 % to a Holywell victory. The 4.2 expected total goals and a 25 % probability of a 6+ scoreline underscore a high-scoring affair, yet the most likely exact score is 3-0, with an 8.5 % chance. Haverfordwest’s home form shows 1.92 goals scored and 1.08 conceded against similar opposition, while Holywell, on the road, averages 1.78 goals scored and 2.22 conceded. The model’s selections mirror this imbalance: Away under 3.5 goals (98.3 %), Home +2 handicap (97.7 %), Home over 0.5 goals (96.2 %), Under 7.5 (93.5 %), Home or Draw (93.0 %), Home +1 handicap (93.0 %), Over 1.5 (92.8 %) and Away under 2.5 goals (92.6 %). Both sides have recently endured five defeats, with Haverfordwest losing 0-3 to Cambrian & Clydach and Holywell falling 1-3 to Barry Town, adding to the narrative that Haverfordwest’s home advantage and offensive edge will likely prevail.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Haverfordwest County AFC win
82.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
11.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Holywell win
6.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Haverfordwest County AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.30
1.71
1.21
1.00
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.38
1.23
1.82
1.09
1.07
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
2.00
2.79
1.57
1.62
2.38
vs Stronger (11)
2.55
1.36
3.17
0.83
1.80
2.00
vs Similar (15)
2.27
2.20
2.86
2.00
1.75
2.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
3.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (31%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
94.8%
Under 1.5
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
83.7%
Under 2.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
67.4%
Under 3.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
8.0%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
7.0%
2-1
6.8%
4-0
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
5-1
5.0%
5-0
4.7%
Haverfordwest County AFC goals ↓
Holywell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
1
3.2%
4.2%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
2
6.3%
6.8%
3.6%
1.3%
0.3%
3
7.5%
8.0%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
4
6.6%
7.0%
3.8%
1.3%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Haverfordwest County AFC goals (down), columns = Holywell goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.50 points better than Holywell in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Haverfordwest County AFC is 1.17 goals worse than Holywell in terms of goals scored per game (0.33 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Haverfordwest County AFC is 2.33 goals better than Holywell in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 4.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Haverfordwest County AFC or Draw
93.2%
Avg Implied -
82%
11%
7%
covers Haverfordwest County AFC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC or Holywell
89.0%
Avg Implied -
82%
11%
7%
covers Haverfordwest County AFC + Holywell
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Holywell
17.8%
Avg Implied -
82%
11%
7%
covers Draw + Holywell
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5
Over
97.1%
Under
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5
Over
86.8%
Under
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5
Over
68.5%
Under
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 3.5
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 0.5
Over
65.6%
Under
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 1.5
Over
28.9%
Under
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 2.5
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Haverfordwest County AFC, so a minus line means Haverfordwest County AFC give that many goals of a start and Holywell receive them. At -1, Haverfordwest County AFC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Haverfordwest County AFC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Haverfordwest County AFC)
Haverfordwest County AFC -2
47.5%
Draw -2
19.0%
Holywell +2
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Haverfordwest County AFC)
Haverfordwest County AFC -1
66.5%
Draw -1
15.7%
Holywell +1
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Haverfordwest County AFC)
Haverfordwest County AFC +1
93.2%
Draw +1
4.5%
Holywell -1
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Haverfordwest County AFC)
Haverfordwest County AFC +2
97.7%
Draw +2
1.7%
Holywell -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Haverfordwest County AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.50
0.57
0.19
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.58
0.64
0.55
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.87
1.50
0.71
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
0.36
1.83
0.00
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.20
1.43
1.29
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Haverfordwest County AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
1.21
0.64
0.81
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.65
1.18
0.55
0.87
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
1.29
0.86
0.94
1.38
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
1.00
1.33
0.83
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.00
1.43
0.71
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC's squad is €1m more valuable than Holywell's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Holywell have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Holywell have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Holywell have a similar defence value (both €1m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
HCA wins
0
Draws
0
HOL wins
Head-to-head
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Holywell · H/A from HCA
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin