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Haverfordwest County AFC vs llanelli AFC Result & Analysis

Date: 26/12/2025
Time: 14:30
Final 3-0
Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Vs
68%
20%
12%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
llanelli AFC
llanelli AFC
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Haverfordwest County AFC win✓ Hit
68.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
llanelli AFC win✗ Miss
12.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L20W03L33D23L22D10W04L20W22DA·PEN07/10H·BAL10/10A·LLA17/10A·GAP25/10H·THE01/11A·CAE08/11H·COL15/11A·BAR28/11A·BAL05/12A·FLI20/12
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.901.531.600.932.20
vs Stronger (6)1.173.501.673.000.674.00
vs Similar (24)1.251.501.501.251.001.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (llanelli AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

llanelli AFCllanelli AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-613L04L30W04L01L13L11D06L12L12LH·CAR07/10A·FLI11/10H·HAV17/10H·THE24/10A·BAL31/10A·COL08/11H·CAE15/11H·BAR21/11H·GAP29/11A·CAR05/12
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.171.001.941.002.43
vs Stronger (4)1.002.751.502.500.503.00
vs Similar (24)0.962.210.832.081.082.33
vs Weaker (2)1.500.501.500.50--
Clean sheet %17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.5%
Under 2.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.3%
Under 3.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.4%
No
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.7%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.2%
1-0
8.4%
3-0 ✓
8.3%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
4.8%
0-0
4.8%
Haverfordwest County AFC goals ↓
llanelli AFC goals →
01234
04.8%2.8%1.6%0.5%0.1%
18.4%9.2%3.8%1.1%0.3%
211%9.7%4.4%1.3%0.3%
38.3%7.5%3.4%1.0%0.2%
44.8%4.4%2.0%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Haverfordwest County AFC goals (down), columns = llanelli AFC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.81
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Barry Town
1.42
Briton Ferry
1.41
Caernarfon Town
1.41
Colwyn Bay
1.39
Penybont
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Bala Town
1.00
llanelli AFC
0.41
Haverfordwest County AFC is 1.03 points better than llanelli AFC in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 0.41).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Caernarfon Town
1.75
Flint Town United
1.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.34
Barry Town
1.33
Colwyn Bay
1.24
Penybont
1.21
Bala Town
1.03
llanelli AFC
0.53
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.91 goals better than llanelli AFC in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 0.53).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.78
Barry Town
1.03
Colwyn Bay
1.12
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.19
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.35
Bala Town
1.41
Penybont
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.47
Caernarfon Town
1.47
Cardiff MET
1.59
Flint Town United
1.84
llanelli AFC
2.56
Haverfordwest County AFC is 1.21 goals better than llanelli AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 2.56).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L02L02L00D00D02L10W01LA·PEN07/10H·BAL10/10A·LLA17/10A·GAP25/10H·THE01/11A·CAE08/11H·COL15/11A·BAR28/11A·BAL05/12A·FLI20/12
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.730.670.400.271.07
vs Stronger (6)0.671.500.671.330.671.67
vs Similar (24)0.420.540.670.170.170.92
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (llanelli AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

llanelli AFCllanelli AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L10W01L01L12L10W03L11D10WH·CAR07/10A·FLI11/10H·HAV17/10H·THE24/10A·BAL31/10A·COL08/11H·CAE15/11H·BAR21/11H·GAP29/11A·CAR05/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.030.500.940.211.14
vs Stronger (4)0.000.750.000.500.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.421.120.581.080.251.17
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.500.50--
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
llanelli AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
llanelli AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
llanelli AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L20W02L31W21W22D10W02L10W21WA·PEN07/10H·BAL10/10A·LLA17/10A·GAP25/10H·THE01/11A·CAE08/11H·COL15/11A·BAR28/11A·BAL05/12A·FLI20/12
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.170.871.200.671.13
vs Stronger (6)0.502.001.001.670.002.33
vs Similar (24)0.830.960.831.080.830.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (llanelli AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

llanelli AFCllanelli AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L02L20W03L00D01L01L03L01L02LH·CAR07/10A·FLI11/10H·HAV17/10H·THE24/10A·BAL31/10A·COL08/11H·CAE15/11H·BAR21/11H·GAP29/11A·CAR05/12
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.130.501.000.791.29
vs Stronger (4)1.002.001.502.000.502.00
vs Similar (24)0.541.080.251.000.831.17
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
llanelli AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
llanelli AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
llanelli AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
LA (2)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC's squad is €1m more valuable than llanelli AFC's (€1m vs €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and llanelli AFC have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and llanelli AFC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and llanelli AFC have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
HCA wins
0
Draws
3
LA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Haverfordwest County AFC vs llanelli AFC · H/A from HCA
DateH/AGameScore
17/10/25Allanelli AFC Vs HCA3-0
26/09/25Allanelli AFC Vs HCA1-0
13/12/24HHCA Vs llanelli AFC0-2

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/12/25AFlint Town United Vs HCA2-2
05/12/25ABala Town Vs HCA0-2
28/11/25ABarry Town Vs HCA4-0
15/11/25HHCA Vs Colwyn Bay1-0
08/11/25ACaernarfon Town Vs HCA2-2
01/11/25HHCA Vs The New Saints2-3
25/10/25AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs HCA3-3
17/10/25Allanelli AFC Vs HCA3-0
10/10/25HHCA Vs Bala Town2-0
07/10/25APenybont Vs HCA2-1

llanelli AFCllanelli AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/12/25ACardiff MET Vs LA2-1
29/11/25HLA Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC1-2
21/11/25HLA Vs Barry Town0-6
15/11/25HLA Vs Caernarfon Town1-1
08/11/25AColwyn Bay Vs LA3-1
31/10/25ABala Town Vs LA1-0
24/10/25HLA Vs The New Saints0-4
17/10/25HLA Vs Haverfordwest County AFC3-0
11/10/25AFlint Town United Vs LA4-0
07/10/25HLA Vs Cardiff MET1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWD1.24
HomeLWWLW1.46
AwayDDLWD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%21%
AVG goals2.662.652.67
Over 1.5 %72%65%79%
Over 2.5 %48%46%50%
Over 3.5 %34%42%25%
Scored1.241.461.00
Conceded1.421.191.67
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet30%35%25%
Corners---
Cards---
llanelli AFC
llanelli AFC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.54
HomeWLDLL1.40
AwayLLLLL1.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%40%52%
AVG goals3.063.202.92
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %32%40%24%
Scored1.541.721.36
Conceded1.521.481.56
BTTS46%40%52%
Clean Sheet32%36%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3280
81%
2.5
8125+56
3.3
88%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.8
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3258
50%
1.8
6138+23
3.1
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.2
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
4946+3
2.8
71%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.4
-
4Barry TownBarry Town3347
36%
1.4
4434+10
2.4
64%
39%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
5Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3346
36%
1.4
4137+4
2.4
64%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.1
-
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3245
38%
1.4
5647+9
3.2
91%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.5
-
7Briton FerryBriton Ferry3245
38%
1.4
4647-1
2.9
81%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
8PenybontPenybont3445
35%
1.3
4149-8
2.6
68%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.4
-
9Cardiff METCardiff MET3238
25%
1.2
4351-8
2.9
88%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.6
-
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
25%
1.1
4859-11
3.3
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
11Bala TownBala Town3232
25%
1.0
3345-12
2.4
72%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
12llanelli AFCllanelli AFC3213
9%
0.4
1782-65
3.1
78%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Wales: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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