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Haverfordwest County AFC vs Penybont Result & Analysis

Date: 17/10/2023
Time: 18:45
Final 3-2
Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Vs
34%
29%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Haverfordwest County AFC win✓ Hit
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Penybont win✗ Miss
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L11D22D21W04L15L13L11D30W02LA·PEN18/08H·CAE26/08A·BAR29/08A·COL02/09H·NEW09/09A·THE16/09H·GAP23/09A·CAR26/09H·ABE30/09A·PON07/10
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.301.571.001.061.56
vs Stronger (4)0.752.251.000.000.673.00
vs Similar (24)1.171.211.421.170.921.25
vs Weaker (2)4.000.504.000.004.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W00D00D12L01L32W21W10W24L14LH·HAV18/08A·PON25/08H·CAR29/08A·BAL02/09H·COL09/09H·CAE16/09A·ABE22/09H·BAR26/09A·GAP30/09H·THE07/10
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.101.751.381.210.79
vs Stronger (5)1.002.201.333.330.500.50
vs Similar (22)1.500.951.831.001.100.90
vs Weaker (3)2.330.332.000.002.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.5%
Under 2.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.5%
0-1
8.4%
0-0
8.3%
2-1
7.9%
1-0
7.8%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
5.8%
Haverfordwest County AFC goals ↓
Penybont goals →
01234
08.3%8.4%6.6%3.0%1.0%
17.8%14%8.5%3.9%1.3%
25.8%7.9%5.4%2.5%0.9%
32.5%3.4%2.3%1.1%0.4%
40.8%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Haverfordwest County AFC goals (down), columns = Penybont goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.88
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.84
Bala Town
1.59
Penybont
1.53
Caernarfon Town
1.38
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.18
Barry Town
1.00
Pontypridd Town
0.97
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Colwyn Bay
0.78
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.19 points worse than Penybont in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 1.53).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.66
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.19
Caernarfon Town
1.68
Penybont
1.53
Newtown AFC
1.48
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.22
Bala Town
1.19
Barry Town
1.12
Colwyn Bay
1.06
Cardiff MET
1.06
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Pontypridd Town
0.72
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.31 goals worse than Penybont in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.53).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.56
Bala Town
0.97
Penybont
1.18
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.25
Pontypridd Town
1.28
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.55
Barry Town
1.69
Aberystwyth Town
1.78
Cardiff MET
1.97
Colwyn Bay
2.06
Caernarfon Town
2.09
Haverfordwest County AFC is 0.07 goals worse than Penybont in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.18).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D02L00D02L01L01L00D00D01LA·PEN18/08H·CAE26/08A·BAR29/08A·COL02/09H·NEW09/09A·THE16/09H·GAP23/09A·CAR26/09H·ABE30/09A·PON07/10
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.600.500.500.310.69
vs Stronger (4)0.000.750.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.420.580.500.580.330.58
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D02L00D11D00D10W02L10WH·HAV18/08A·PON25/08H·CAR29/08A·BAL02/09H·COL09/09H·CAE16/09A·ABE22/09H·BAR26/09A·GAP30/09H·THE07/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.400.750.380.290.43
vs Stronger (5)0.200.800.331.000.000.50
vs Similar (22)0.590.360.920.250.200.50
vs Weaker (3)0.670.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D20W21W02L14L12L11D30W01LA·PEN18/08H·CAE26/08A·BAR29/08A·COL02/09H·NEW09/09A·THE16/09H·GAP23/09A·CAR26/09H·ABE30/09A·PON07/10
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.701.070.500.750.88
vs Stronger (4)0.751.501.000.000.672.00
vs Similar (24)0.750.620.920.580.580.67
vs Weaker (2)3.000.003.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D00D10W01L21W21W00D22D04LH·HAV18/08A·PON25/08H·CAR29/08A·BAL02/09H·COL09/09H·CAE16/09A·ABE22/09H·BAR26/09A·GAP30/09H·THE07/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.701.001.000.930.36
vs Stronger (5)0.801.401.002.330.500.00
vs Similar (22)0.910.590.920.750.900.40
vs Weaker (3)1.670.332.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards86.8%--------
Over 1.575.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners73.0%--------
Under 3.572.4%-------✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards72.3%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Penybont have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Penybont have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Penybont have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Haverfordwest County AFC and Penybont have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
HCA wins
0
Draws
2
PEN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Penybont · H/A from HCA
DateH/AGameScore
18/08/23APenybont Vs HCA2-0
02/12/22HHCA Vs Penybont2-1
30/08/22APenybont Vs HCA3-2

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23APontypridd Town Vs HCA2-0
30/09/23HHCA Vs Aberystwyth Town3-0
26/09/23ACardiff MET Vs HCA1-1
23/09/23HHCA Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC1-3
16/09/23AThe New Saints Vs HCA5-1
09/09/23HHCA Vs Newtown AFC0-4
02/09/23AColwyn Bay Vs HCA1-2
29/08/23ABarry Town Vs HCA2-2
26/08/23HHCA Vs Caernarfon Town1-1
18/08/23APenybont Vs HCA2-0

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23HPEN Vs The New Saints1-4
30/09/23AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs PEN4-2
26/09/23HPEN Vs Barry Town1-0
22/09/23AAberystwyth Town Vs PEN1-2
16/09/23HPEN Vs Caernarfon Town3-2
09/09/23HPEN Vs Colwyn Bay0-1
02/09/23ABala Town Vs PEN2-1
29/08/23HPEN Vs Cardiff MET0-0
25/08/23APontypridd Town Vs PEN0-0
18/08/23HPEN Vs Haverfordwest County AFC2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWL1.33
HomeDDLLW1.83
AwayDWLDL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %37%52%23%
AVG goals2.712.782.65
Over 1.5 %80%78%81%
Over 2.5 %51%57%46%
Over 3.5 %31%39%23%
Scored1.311.611.04
Conceded1.411.171.62
BTTS57%57%58%
Clean Sheet27%39%15%
Corners11.6713.508.00
Cards4.675.503.00
Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.71
HomeDLWWL1.83
AwayWDLWL1.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%52%41%
AVG goals2.562.912.18
Over 1.5 %71%78%64%
Over 2.5 %47%52%41%
Over 3.5 %27%35%18%
Scored1.491.701.27
Conceded1.071.220.91
BTTS53%61%45%
Clean Sheet38%30%45%
Corners8.507.0010.00
Cards7.003.0011.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3292
94%
2.9
11718+99
4.2
81%
72%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.70.6
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3259
56%
1.8
7043+27
3.5
84%
72%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.3
-
3PenybontPenybont3452
44%
1.5
5240+12
2.7
71%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.51.2
-
4Bala TownBala Town3251
41%
1.6
3831+7
2.2
59%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.0
-
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3447
38%
1.4
5771-14
3.8
91%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.72.1
-
6Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3344
39%
1.3
4951-2
3.0
79%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
7Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3243
34%
1.3
3940-1
2.5
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.2
-
8Cardiff METCardiff MET3339
30%
1.2
3565-30
3.0
79%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.0
-
9Barry TownBarry Town3232
22%
1.0
3654-18
2.8
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.7
-
10Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3231
25%
1.0
2341-18
2.0
56%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
11Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3227
22%
0.8
2757-30
2.6
69%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3225
22%
0.8
3466-32
3.1
72%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.1
-
Wales: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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