Haverfordwest County AFC are the favourites to win against Penybont, with recent form suggesting a difficult spell for the home side, having suffered three consecutive defeats. However, the model predicts a home win, with a 53% probability of Haverfordwest County AFC emerging victorious, compared to 22% for Penybont and 24% for a draw.
The expected total number of goals is 3.1, indicating a match with a relatively high scoring potential. The most likely correct score is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 11.4%.
Haverfordwest County AFC have struggled to score at home, with a strength tier of 5, and have conceded freely, with a strength tier of 2. In contrast, Penybont have performed reasonably well when scoring away, with a strength tier of 4, but have also conceded at a rate of 3.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 81.9%. The model also suggests a Home win, with a probability of 53%, a Draw, with a probability of 24%, and an Away win, with a probability of 22%.
In a major upset, Penybont secured a 3-0 win over Haverfordwest County AFC, extending their winning run to three matches. This result was a surprise, as the home side had been on a dismal run of four straight defeats, including a 0-3 loss to the away team just last time out. The model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect, with the pre-match probability of 54% suggesting a strong favourite. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks did come through, with Over 1.5 goals hitting at 82%.
Haverfordwest County AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.23 | 2.08 | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.35 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.56 | 1.15 | 2.27 | 0.91 | 1.06 | 1.31 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Penybont| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.50 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 1.53 | 2.27 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 3.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.12 | 1.20 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Penybont goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 11% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.5% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Haverfordwest County AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.46 | 0.24 | 0.65 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.44 | 0.52 | 0.73 | 0.36 | 0.25 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Penybont| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.77 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.44 | 0.64 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Haverfordwest County AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.67 | 1.46 | 0.62 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.11 | 0.63 | 1.55 | 0.55 | 0.81 | 0.69 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Penybont| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.87 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 3.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.68 | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.83 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82.0% | 1.32 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.33 | +13.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 07/10/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/08/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/02/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 03/12/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 23/08/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/04/24 | A | 1-0 |
Haverfordwest County AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 1-3 |
Penybont| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Barry Town | 6 | 18 | 100% | 3.0 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 4.0 | 83% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 2 | The New Saints | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 3.2 | 67% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.7 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 | Cardiff MET | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Caernarfon Town | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | - |
| 6 | Llandudno | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Penybont | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 2.5 | 83% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Colwyn Bay | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 9 | Airbus UK | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Cambrian & Clydach | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 2.7 | 83% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 6 | 3 | 17% | 0.5 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 2.3 | 83% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 13 | Ammanford AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | - |
| 14 | Flint Town United | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2.8 | 67% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 15 | Trefelin | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 17 | -15 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.8 | - |
| 16 | Holywell | 6 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 5.8 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 4.3 | - |