Hayq’s recent four-game winning streak and a 4-3 victory over Ararat-Armenia II set the tone for a strong home outing, while Lernayin Artsakh’s last match ended in a 1-3 loss to Mika, leaving them on a shaky run. The model therefore rates a home win as the clear favourite, assigning a 77% probability to that outcome. Home advantage is amplified by Hayq’s home form against weaker opponents, where they average 2.7 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, whereas Lernayin Artsakh’s away form against stronger sides yields just 0.43 goals scored and 2.43 conceded. The expected total goals hover at 3.4, with the most likely total being three goals at a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Hayq, with an 11.8% probability. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.3%, Home +2 handicap at 97.7%, Home +1 handicap at 92.3%, Home or Draw at 92.3%, Home over 0.5 goals at 92.7%, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.9%, Under 7.5 at 97.8%, Under 6.5 at 94.5%, and Under 7.5 goals at 97.8%. The probabilities for a home win, draw and away win are 77%, 16% and 8% respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hayq win
76.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh win
7.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hayq
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.80
2.20
0.73
1.73
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.30
1.00
1.20
1.00
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
2.30
0.70
2.70
0.60
1.90
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.60
0.88
2.38
0.86
2.86
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
2.77
0.71
2.71
0.50
2.83
vs Similar (14)
1.14
2.71
1.12
2.25
1.17
3.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hayq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.6%
Under 1.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.3%
Under 2.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.3%
Under 3.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.8%
3-0
10.3%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.4%
3-1
7.7%
1-1
7.5%
4-0
6.7%
4-1
5.1%
Hayq goals ↓
Lernayin Artsakh goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
1.9%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
1
8.4%
7.5%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
2
12%
8.9%
3.3%
0.8%
0.2%
3
10%
7.7%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
4
6.7%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hayq goals (down), columns = Lernayin Artsakh goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Hayq is 1.47 points better than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of average points per game (2.27 vs 0.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Hayq is 1.21 goals better than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of goals scored per game (1.97 vs 0.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Hayq is 1.65 goals better than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 2.45).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hayq or Draw
92.3%
Avg Implied -
77%
16%
8%
covers Hayq + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hayq or Lernayin Artsakh
84.2%
Avg Implied -
77%
16%
8%
covers Hayq + Lernayin Artsakh
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh
23.5%
Avg Implied -
77%
16%
8%
covers Draw + Lernayin Artsakh
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hayq over/under 0.5
Over
92.7%
Under
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 1.5
Over
73.5%
Under
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 2.5
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 3.5
Over
26.7%
Under
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hayq, so a minus line means Hayq give that many goals of a start and Lernayin Artsakh receive them. At -1, Hayq must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hayq win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hayq)
Hayq -2
34.2%
Draw -2
21.7%
Lernayin Artsakh +2
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hayq)
Hayq -1
55.9%
Draw -1
20.7%
Lernayin Artsakh +1
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hayq)
Hayq +1
92.3%
Draw +1
5.5%
Lernayin Artsakh -1
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hayq)
Hayq +2
97.7%
Draw +2
1.8%
Lernayin Artsakh -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hayq
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.23
1.33
0.13
0.93
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.30
0.60
0.20
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
1.25
0.20
1.70
0.10
0.80
0.30
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.56
0.94
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.00
0.29
0.71
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.00
0.88
1.25
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Hayq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hayq over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hayq
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.87
0.60
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.70
0.60
0.80
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (20)
1.05
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.10
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.63
0.31
1.44
0.50
1.86
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.77
0.43
2.00
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.71
0.25
1.00
1.00
2.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hayq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hayq over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Hayq and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Hayq and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Hayq and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Hayq and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat II