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HB Koge vs Esbjerg Result & Analysis

Date: 28/02/2025
Time: 17:30
Final 0-2
HB Koge
HB Koge
Vs
27%
22%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Esbjerg
Esbjerg
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

HB Koge winâś— Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg winâś“ Hit
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L20W30W41W01L11D10W00D15L21WH·FC 26/09A·ROS29/09A·ODE04/10H·HOB18/10H·KOL25/10A·VEN02/11H·HVI10/11A·AC 24/11H·HIL02/12A·FC 23/02
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.801.362.141.441.50
vs Stronger (5)1.602.201.003.332.500.50
vs Similar (23)1.431.741.601.801.311.69
vs Weaker (2)0.501.500.002.001.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EsbjergEsbjerg

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D40W03L12L02L32W20W21W02L01LH·HIL29/09A·B 904/10H·FC 19/10A·ODE26/10H·AAL30/10H·HOB03/11H·ROS10/11A·HIL24/11A·VEN01/12H·KOL22/02
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.221.611.641.552.751.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)2.001.701.501.602.501.80
vs Weaker (3)3.671.003.001.004.001.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%21%3%07%117%221%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.9%
Under 1.5
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
72.8%
Under 2.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.3%
Under 3.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
71.5%
No
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.7%
1-2
8.7%
2-2
6.9%
1-3
6.4%
2-1
6.3%
0-2 âś“
5.5%
2-3
5.1%
0-1
4.2%
HB Koge goals ↓
Esbjerg goals →
01234
03.1%4.2%5.5%4.0%2.2%
12.8%8.7%8.7%6.4%3.5%
22.9%6.3%6.9%5.1%2.8%
31.5%3.3%3.6%2.7%1.5%
40.6%1.3%1.4%1.1%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HB Koge goals (down), columns = Esbjerg goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Odense
2.03
FC Fredericia
2.00
Hillerød
1.62
AC Horsens
1.59
Kolding IF
1.56
Hvidovre
1.41
Esbjerg
1.28
Hobro
1.22
B 93
1.09
HB Koge
1.06
Vendsyssel FF
0.94
Roskilde
0.81
HB Koge is 0.22 points worse than Esbjerg in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.28).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Odense
2.16
FC Fredericia
2.03
Hillerød
1.75
Esbjerg
1.62
AC Horsens
1.53
B 93
1.31
Hobro
1.22
Roskilde
1.16
Kolding IF
1.12
HB Koge
1.12
Vendsyssel FF
1.09
Hvidovre
1.03
HB Koge is 0.50 goals worse than Esbjerg in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kolding IF
0.88
FC Fredericia
0.94
Hvidovre
1.09
Odense
1.09
Hillerød
1.19
AC Horsens
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.53
Hobro
1.59
Esbjerg
1.75
HB Koge
1.78
B 93
1.91
Roskilde
1.91
HB Koge is 0.03 goals worse than Esbjerg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.75).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HB KogeHB Koge

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W20W31W00D10W00D00D11D11DH·FC 26/09A·ROS29/09A·ODE04/10H·HOB18/10H·KOL25/10A·VEN02/11H·HVI10/11A·AC 24/11H·HIL02/12A·FC 23/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.870.571.000.500.75
vs Stronger (5)1.001.200.671.671.500.50
vs Similar (23)0.430.780.600.700.310.85
vs Weaker (2)0.501.000.002.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EsbjergEsbjerg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W01L12L01L10W10W20W01L01LH·HIL29/09A·B 904/10H·FC 19/10A·ODE26/10H·AAL30/10H·HOB03/11H·ROS10/11A·HIL24/11A·VEN01/12H·KOL22/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.960.780.640.641.250.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.950.800.600.601.301.00
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.001.001.000.50
Clean sheet %39% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HB KogeHB Koge

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L10W10W10W01L01L10W00D04L10WH·FC 26/09A·ROS29/09A·ODE04/10H·HOB18/10H·KOL25/10A·VEN02/11H·HVI10/11A·AC 24/11H·HIL02/12A·FC 23/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.930.791.140.940.75
vs Stronger (5)0.601.000.331.671.000.00
vs Similar (23)1.000.961.001.101.000.85
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EsbjergEsbjerg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W02L00D01L22D10W01L01L00DH·HIL29/09A·B 904/10H·FC 19/10A·ODE26/10H·AAL30/10H·HOB03/11H·ROS10/11A·HIL24/11A·VEN01/12H·KOL22/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.260.831.000.911.500.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.050.900.901.001.200.80
vs Weaker (3)2.670.332.000.003.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.589.9%-------âś“ Hit
Over 2.572.8%-------âś— Miss
BTTS Yes71.5%-------âś— Miss

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ODE (24)
€17m
AH (27)
€10m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
VF (3)
€1m
HB Koge's squad is €2m less valuable than Esbjerg's (€5m vs €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ODE (9)
€8m
AH (9)
€4m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
HB Koge's attack is €1m less valuable than Esbjerg's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
ODE (6)
€3m
AH (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
HB Koge and Esbjerg have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ODE (9)
€7m
AH (12)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
VF (0)
€0m
HB Koge and Esbjerg have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
HK wins
0
Draws
1
ESB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

HB Koge vs Esbjerg · H/A from HK
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/24AEsbjerg Vs HK4-1

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/02/25AFC Fredericia Vs HK1-2
02/12/24HHK Vs Hillerød1-5
24/11/24AAC Horsens Vs HK0-0
10/11/24HHK Vs Hvidovre1-0
02/11/24AVendsyssel FF Vs HK1-1
25/10/24HHK Vs Kolding IF0-1
18/10/24HHK Vs Hobro4-1
04/10/24AOdense Vs HK0-3
29/09/24ARoskilde Vs HK0-2
26/09/24HHK Vs FC Copenhagen0-2

EsbjergEsbjerg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/02/25HESB Vs Kolding IF0-1
01/12/24AVendsyssel FF Vs ESB2-0
24/11/24AHillerød Vs ESB1-2
10/11/24HESB Vs Roskilde2-0
03/11/24HESB Vs Hobro3-2
30/10/24HESB Vs Aalborg0-2
26/10/24AOdense Vs ESB2-1
19/10/24HESB Vs FC Fredericia0-3
04/10/24AB 93 Vs ESB0-4
29/09/24HESB Vs Hillerød1-1

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

HB Koge
HB Koge
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLW1.04
HomeLWLWL1.08
AwayWWDDW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%33%23%
AVG goals3.203.333.08
Over 1.5 %80%75%85%
Over 2.5 %54%54%54%
Over 3.5 %42%50%35%
Scored1.281.291.27
Conceded1.922.041.81
BTTS52%42%62%
Clean Sheet22%21%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Esbjerg
Esbjerg
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.74
HomeLLWWL1.45
AwayWWLWL2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %57%45%67%
AVG goals3.833.184.42
Over 1.5 %91%82%100%
Over 2.5 %74%55%92%
Over 3.5 %48%36%58%
Scored2.221.642.75
Conceded1.611.551.67
BTTS61%55%67%
Clean Sheet13%9%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1OdenseOdense3265
56%
2.0
6935+34
3.2
88%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
8372.21.1
-
2FC FredericiaFC Fredericia3264
62%
2.0
6530+35
3.0
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
2332.00.9
-
3HillerødHillerød3252
44%
1.6
5638+18
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.81.2
-
4AC HorsensAC Horsens3251
47%
1.6
4948+1
3.0
78%
59%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.51.5
-
5Kolding IFKolding IF3250
44%
1.6
3628+8
2.0
53%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.10.9
-
6HvidovreHvidovre3245
38%
1.4
3335-2
2.1
53%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.1
-
7EsbjergEsbjerg3241
41%
1.3
5256-4
3.4
88%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.61.8
-
8HobroHobro3239
31%
1.2
3951-12
2.8
78%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.21.6
-
9B 93B 933235
28%
1.1
4261-19
3.2
78%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
10HB KogeHB Koge3234
28%
1.1
3657-21
2.9
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.8
-
11Vendsyssel FFVendsyssel FF3230
22%
0.9
3549-14
2.6
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.5
-
12RoskildeRoskilde3226
22%
0.8
3761-24
3.1
88%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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