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HB Koge vs Naestved Result & Analysis

Date: 09/09/2022
Time: 17:00
Final 1-1
HB Koge
HB Koge
Vs
52%
26%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Naestved
Naestved
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

HB Koge winâś— Miss
52.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś“ Hit
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naestved winâś— Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D12L13L20W40W01L24L21WH·HOB24/07H·VEN31/07A·SON06/08A·HIL11/08H·NYK16/08A·HVI19/08H·FC 27/08A·VEJ03/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.381.751.501.251.25
vs Stronger (1)1.003.00--1.003.00
vs Similar (6)1.671.002.001.331.330.67
vs Weaker (1)1.002.001.002.00--
Clean sheet %38% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaestvedNaestved

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-622D10W20W00D06L30W11D30WH·HVI24/07A·FC 29/07H·HOB07/08A·FRE12/08A·VEJ17/08H·NYK21/08A·SON26/08H·VEN04/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.122.500.500.501.75
vs Stronger (3)0.672.33--0.672.33
vs Similar (4)1.750.502.330.670.000.00
vs Weaker (1)3.000.003.000.00--
Clean sheet %62% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.3%
Under 1.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.6%
Under 3.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 âś“
12.1%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
8.9%
2-0
8.9%
0-0
6.7%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
5.8%
2-2
5.4%
HB Koge goals ↓
Naestved goals →
01234
06.7%5.1%3.4%1.3%0.3%
18.9%12%6.1%2.2%0.6%
28.9%9.8%5.4%2.0%0.5%
35.2%5.8%3.2%1.2%0.3%
42.3%2.6%1.4%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HB Koge goals (down), columns = Naestved goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vejle
2.09
Hvidovre
1.81
Sonderjyske
1.75
Vendsyssel FF
1.44
FC Fredericia
1.41
HB Koge
1.38
Naestved
1.34
FC Helsingor
1.31
Hillerød
1.28
Hobro
1.19
Fremad Amager
1.06
Nykobing FC
0.72
HB Koge is 0.03 points better than Naestved in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.34).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hvidovre
2.03
Vejle
1.91
Sonderjyske
1.88
FC Fredericia
1.75
Naestved
1.56
HB Koge
1.56
Vendsyssel FF
1.50
FC Helsingor
1.47
Nykobing FC
1.34
Fremad Amager
1.19
Hillerød
1.16
Hobro
1.03
HB Koge and Naestved are level in goals scored per game (both 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vejle
0.94
Hvidovre
1.28
Hobro
1.31
Vendsyssel FF
1.34
Sonderjyske
1.41
Naestved
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Hillerød
1.59
HB Koge
1.59
FC Helsingor
1.75
Fremad Amager
1.88
Nykobing FC
2.28
HB Koge is 0.09 goals worse than Naestved in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HB KogeHB Koge

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D02L10W10W00D12L00DH·HOB24/07H·VEN31/07A·SON06/08A·HIL11/08H·NYK16/08A·HVI19/08H·FC 27/08A·VEJ03/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.620.750.750.250.50
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (6)0.500.330.670.670.330.00
vs Weaker (1)1.001.001.001.00--
Clean sheet %62% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaestvedNaestved

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L10W20W00D04L20W01L10WH·HVI24/07A·FC 29/07H·HOB07/08A·FRE12/08A·VEJ17/08H·NYK21/08A·SON26/08H·VEN04/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.880.881.500.500.251.25
vs Stronger (3)0.331.67--0.331.67
vs Similar (4)1.250.501.670.670.000.00
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %62% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HB KogeHB Koge

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L11D10W30W01L12L21WH·HOB24/07H·VEN31/07A·SON06/08A·HIL11/08H·NYK16/08A·HVI19/08H·FC 27/08A·VEJ03/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.751.000.751.000.75
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (6)1.170.671.330.671.000.67
vs Weaker (1)0.001.000.001.00--
Clean sheet %38% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaestvedNaestved

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D00D02L10W10W20WH·HVI24/07A·FC 29/07H·HOB07/08A·FRE12/08A·VEJ17/08H·NYK21/08A·SON26/08H·VEN04/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.620.251.000.000.250.50
vs Stronger (3)0.330.67--0.330.67
vs Similar (4)0.500.000.670.000.000.00
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %88% (+61pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.3%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (26)
€13m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
HOB (23)
€7m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
VF (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
SON (6)
€3m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (7)
€3m
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (13)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
VF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
HK wins
0
Draws
0
NAE wins

Head-to-head

HB Koge vs Naestved · H/A from HK
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/22AVejle Vs HK1-2
27/08/22HHK Vs FC Helsingor2-4
19/08/22AHvidovre Vs HK1-0
16/08/22HHK Vs Nykobing FC4-0
11/08/22AHillerød Vs HK0-2
06/08/22ASonderjyske Vs HK3-1
31/07/22HHK Vs Vendsyssel FF1-2
24/07/22HHK Vs Hobro0-0

NaestvedNaestved

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/22HNAE Vs Vendsyssel FF3-0
26/08/22ASonderjyske Vs NAE1-1
21/08/22HNAE Vs Nykobing FC3-0
17/08/22AVejle Vs NAE6-0
12/08/22AFremad Amager Vs NAE0-0
07/08/22HNAE Vs Hobro2-0
29/07/22AFC Fredericia Vs NAE0-1
24/07/22HNAE Vs Hvidovre2-2

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

HB Koge
HB Koge
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLW1.25
HomeDLWL1.00
AwayLWLW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%25%50%
AVG goals2.883.252.50
Over 1.5 %75%75%75%
Over 2.5 %62%75%50%
Over 3.5 %38%50%25%
Scored1.501.751.25
Conceded1.381.501.25
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet38%50%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Naestved
Naestved
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDW1.88
HomeDWWW2.50
AwayWDLD1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%75%25%
AVG goals2.623.002.25
Over 1.5 %75%100%50%
Over 2.5 %50%75%25%
Over 3.5 %25%25%25%
Scored1.502.500.50
Conceded1.120.501.75
BTTS25%25%25%
Clean Sheet62%75%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VejleVejle3267
62%
2.1
6130+31
2.8
75%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3241.90.9
-
2HvidovreHvidovre3258
53%
1.8
6541+24
3.3
81%
69%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.3
-
3SonderjyskeSonderjyske3256
50%
1.8
6045+15
3.3
78%
66%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3361.91.4
-
4Vendsyssel FFVendsyssel FF3246
41%
1.4
4843+5
2.8
75%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.3
-
5FC FredericiaFC Fredericia3245
41%
1.4
5648+8
3.2
78%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
2331.81.5
-
6HB KogeHB Koge3244
41%
1.4
5051-1
3.2
72%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.61.6
-
7NaestvedNaestved3243
34%
1.3
5048+2
3.1
84%
56%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
8FC HelsingorFC Helsingor3242
41%
1.3
4756-9
3.2
72%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
9HillerødHillerød3241
38%
1.3
3751-14
2.8
81%
41%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.6
-
10HobroHobro3238
28%
1.2
3342-9
2.3
69%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.01.3
-
11Fremad AmagerFremad Amager3234
31%
1.1
3860-22
3.1
69%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
12Nykobing FCNykobing FC3223
19%
0.7
4373-30
3.6
91%
66%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.3
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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