The model favours an away win, with Celtic holding a 46% chance of triumph against Heart of Midlothian’s 27% home win probability and a 26% draw likelihood. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.3% probability. Heart of Midlothian, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 3.0 conceded, while Celtic, away against a weaker side, averages 2.5 scored and 0.83 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 83%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.2%, Over 8.5 corners at 77%, Over 19.5 fouls at 74.5%, Under 25.5 fouls at 72.7% and Over 2.5 cards at 71.5%. The recent form notes that Hearts have remained unbeaten in their last five matches, and Celtic come off a win.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Celtic, fell short of the model’s 46% chance of victory. Heart Of Midlothian, unbeaten in their last five, seized the moment to win 3-1, proving the model’s pick was wrong. The match delivered on every suggested selection: Under 5.5 cards hit at 83%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.2%, Over 8.5 corners at 77%, Over 19.5 fouls at 74.5%, Under 25.5 fouls at 72.7%, and Over 2.5 cards at 71.5%. The final score of 3-1 confirmed a home triumph, leaving the model’s confidence in the away win unfulfilled.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian winâś“ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.19
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.58
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Celtic winâś— Miss
46.2%
Avg Implied 44.5% · @ 2.10
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
0.83
2.13
0.87
2.20
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (10)
1.70
0.90
1.86
0.71
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (17)
2.65
0.59
2.57
0.71
2.70
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
0.83
2.27
0.87
2.13
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.40
1.00
2.50
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.48
0.72
2.46
0.62
2.50
0.83
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.1%
@ 1.72+2.0%
Under 2.5
43.9%
@ 2.03-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.2%
No
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
7.8%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.0%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
1-0
5.6%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
Celtic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
7.8%
7.5%
4.2%
1.8%
1
5.6%
12%
9.4%
5.3%
2.2%
2
4.2%
7.0%
5.9%
3.3%
1.4%
3
1.7%
2.9%
2.5%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = Celtic goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Partick
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Livingston
0.55
Arbroath
0.50
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.05 points worse than Celtic in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 2.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Livingston
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
Partick
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Dunfermline
0.75
Arbroath
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.16 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arbroath
0.50
Dunfermline
0.75
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Partick
1.00
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Livingston
1.97
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.18 goals better than Celtic in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Arbroath
50%
Dunfermline
50%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Livingston
45%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Heart Of Midlothian is 12.1 percentage points worse than Celtic in terms of average possession (53% vs 66%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.80
0.40
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.50
0.71
0.29
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.41
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.47
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.00
0.80
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.20
0.44
1.15
0.31
1.25
0.58
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.30
1.33
0.47
1.33
0.13
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.40
1.14
0.43
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (17)
1.65
0.18
1.57
0.29
1.70
0.10
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.33
1.27
0.40
1.13
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.28
0.28
1.31
0.31
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
ARB (15)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €94m less valuable than Celtic's (€22m vs €116m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
ARB (3)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €44m less valuable than Celtic's (€12m vs €56m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €16m less valuable than Celtic's (€4m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
ARB (7)
€0m
Heart Of Midlothian's defence is €35m less valuable than Celtic's (€6m vs €41m).
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rangers
Motherwell
Hibernian
Falkirk
Dundee Utd
Dundee
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
Livingston
Partick
Dunfermline
Arbroath