Heart of Midlothian are favourites to win this match, with a recent-form note that they bounced back from four straight defeats with a win. The overall shape of the match is likely to be a high-scoring encounter, with an expected total of 3.0 goals and over 1.5 goals being the model's selection with an 81.5% probability.
The model predicts a home win as the most likely result, with a 61% chance of Heart of Midlothian taking the three points. There's a 23% chance of the match ending in a draw and a 16% chance of Dundee Utd winning. The most likely correct score is 1-1, with a 10.7% probability.
Heart of Midlothian have been strong at home, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per match and conceding just 0.2. Dundee Utd have been less impressive away from home, scoring 1.0 goal per match but conceding 1.88.
The model suggests Over 1.5 goals as its selection, with a 5% edge. The model's other selections are Home win (61%), Draw (23%), and Away win (16%).
Results analysis
The win extends their run as Heart Of Midlothian secured a convincing 4-0 victory over Dundee Utd. This result confirms the expected outcome as the final score exceeded the predicted total of 3.0 goals. The model's selection, a home win, proved correct with a probability of 71%. The model's call was correct, as they had predicted the home team to win.
The model's selections largely came in, with the 'Over 1.5' total goals hitting with an 80.7% probability. The 'Home win' selection also hit, with a 70.8% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian winâś“ Hit
70.8%
Avg Implied 57.0% · @ 1.64
Edge
+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.70
Dafabet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Drawâś— Miss
19.3%
Avg Implied 23.6% · @ 3.98
Edge
-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.11
Superbet
4.10
Dafabet
4.10
Betano
4.00
Dundee Utd winâś— Miss
9.9%
Avg Implied 19.5% · @ 4.81
Edge
-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Dafabet
4.90
SBO
4.84
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.17
1.50
0.64
1.25
1.62
vs Stronger (8)
1.50
2.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
3.50
vs Similar (14)
1.50
0.71
1.67
0.33
1.38
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.62
1.25
0.25
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.33
1.62
0.75
1.14
2.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
2.00
1.67
0.67
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.30
1.50
0.83
1.18
1.82
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.7%
@ 1.22+3.7%
Under 1.5
19.3%
@ 4.07-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Unibet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Pinnacle
4.12
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.3%
@ 1.72+2.5%
Under 2.5
42.7%
@ 2.09-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
888Sport
1.73
Under
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.15
SBO
2.14
Pinnacle
2.13
Betfair
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.9%
@ 2.79+1.4%
Under 3.5
65.1%
@ 1.41-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.89
Betfair
2.88
888Sport
2.88
Betano
2.82
BetVictor
2.80
Under
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.5%
@ 1.73-6.3%
No
52.5%
@ 2.01+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
888Sport
1.75
William Hil
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
No
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.8%@ 7.77+7.0%
1-0
10.5%@ 7.08+4.2%
3-0
9.6%@ 11.85+5.8%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.52+3.4%
1-1
9.2%@ 7.21+3.0%
3-1
7.1%@ 11.71+3.2%
0-0
5.9%@ 11.81+2.1%
4-0 âś“
5.4%@ 22.81+3.4%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
Dundee Utd goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
2.9%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
1
11%
9.2%
3.1%
0.8%
0.1%
2
13%
9.4%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
9.6%
7.1%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
4
5.4%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = Dundee Utd goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.92 points better than Dundee Utd in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.47 goals better than Dundee Utd in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.68 goals better than Dundee Utd in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Heart Of Midlothian is 11.1 percentage points better than Dundee Utd in terms of average possession (53% vs 42%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.14
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.36
0.67
0.00
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.50
0.31
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.52
0.50
0.33
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.36
1.00
0.33
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.38
1.00
0.25
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.77
1.12
0.44
0.71
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.00
1.33
0.33
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.78
1.00
0.50
0.73
1.09
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.7%
1.22
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+3.7%
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.2%
1.32
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.28
-
-
-
+9.8%
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.4%
1.61
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Betano
1.57
+14.1%
âś“ Hit
Home win
70.8%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.70
Dafabet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
+13.8%
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Wilson60%
Josh McPake40%
C. Miller29%
Tom Renaud25%
L. Mendy25%
P. Kabore17%
O. McEntee14%
Cláudio Braga14%
Tomas Magnusson0%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
J. McCart0%
B. Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
H. Milne0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
S. Guendouz0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
S. Kerjota0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Milne33%
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
P. Kabore33%
Tomas Magnusson17%
O. McEntee14%
Cláudio Braga14%
Jordi Altena14%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
J. McCart0%
C. Miller0%
B. Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
S. Guendouz0%
Rogers Mato0%
J. Wilson0%
S. Kerjota0%
L. Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josh McPake40%
Rogers Mato33%
B. Spittal29%
Cláudio Braga29%
S. Kerjota20%
J. McCart17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
C. Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
H. Milne0%
O. McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
S. Guendouz0%
P. Kabore0%
J. Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
L. Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga57%
L. Mendy25%
Tomas Magnusson0%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
J. McCart0%
C. Miller0%
B. Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
H. Milne0%
O. McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
S. Guendouz0%
P. Kabore0%
Rogers Mato0%
J. Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
S. Kerjota0%
Dundee Utd
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emmanuel Agyei25%
J. Randall20%
William Ferry20%
L. Rose20%
Z. Sapsford20%
Vicko Ĺ evelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
M. Merghem0%
N. Farrugia0%
Dylan Tait0%
J. Rawlins0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
D. Bennie0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vicko Ĺ evelj67%
D. Bennie40%
Abdoulaye Yoro33%
Dylan Tait25%
William Ferry20%
B. Esselink20%
L. Rose20%
Z. Sapsford20%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
M. Merghem0%
N. Farrugia0%
J. Rawlins0%
J. Randall0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Merghem25%
J. Randall20%
William Ferry20%
Vicko Ĺ evelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
N. Farrugia0%
Dylan Tait0%
J. Rawlins0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
L. Rose0%
Z. Sapsford0%
D. Bennie0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Merghem25%
Dylan Tait25%
D. Bennie20%
Vicko Ĺ evelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
N. Farrugia0%
J. Rawlins0%
J. Randall0%
William Ferry0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
L. Rose0%
Z. Sapsford0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €11m more valuable than Dundee Utd's (€22m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €9m more valuable than Dundee Utd's (€12m vs €4m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €1m more valuable than Dundee Utd's (€4m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Heart Of Midlothian's defence is €1m more valuable than Dundee Utd's (€6m vs €4m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
ST Mirren
Motherwell
Dundee
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Aberdeen
Falkirk
Kilmarnock