Heart Of Midlothian’s recent draw against Rapid Vienna signals a cautious but resilient home side, while ST Johnstone return from a defeat to ST Mirren with a modest away record. The model sees a Home win as the most likely outcome, with a 58% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 14% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 2.1, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Hearts, with a 16.7% chance. Hearts’ home form shows they average 2.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker opposition, while Johnstone’s away form is less prolific. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.6% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.4%), Under 6.5 (99.3% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.4% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (97.8% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 goals (97.4% with an 8% edge) and Home +2 handicap (96.2% with a 6% edge).
Results analysis
Heart Of Midlothian’s unbeaten run extended as they secured a 2-1 home win over ST Johnstone, matching the model’s predicted outcome. The model had named a Home win with a 58% probability, and it proved correct. Every suggested pick from the model’s selection set turned out to hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5%, Under 6.5 at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8%, Under 5.5 at 97.8%, Away under 2.5 goals at 97.4%, and Home +2 handicap at 96.2%. The final score of 2-1 confirmed the model’s accuracy across all its predictions.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian win✓ Hit
57.8%
Avg Implied 54.8% · @ 1.71
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
Dafabet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.83
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.14
Betano
4.05
Dafabet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
BetVictor
3.90
ST Johnstone win✗ Miss
14.1%
Avg Implied 20.8% · @ 4.52
Edge
-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.70
Pinnacle
4.64
BetVictor
4.60
Betano
4.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.27
1.94
0.76
1.31
1.92
vs Stronger (8)
1.38
2.50
1.40
1.40
1.33
4.33
vs Similar (14)
1.86
0.86
2.00
0.50
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.75
2.50
0.50
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.63
2.20
0.73
1.13
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.67
0.59
2.29
0.79
1.00
0.38
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.2%
@ 1.22-12.7%
Under 1.5
35.8%
@ 4.06+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.21
Superbet
4.10
BetVictor
4.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.2%
@ 1.73-18.3%
Under 2.5
63.8%
@ 2.08+18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.77
SBO
1.76
Superbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.0%
@ 2.81-16.5%
Under 3.5
83.0%
@ 1.41+16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Pinnacle
2.87
Betano
2.87
Under
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.4%
@ 1.69-17.7%
No
62.6%
@ 2.07+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Bet365
1.70
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
No
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.15
William Hil
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.7%@ 7.29+10.5%
2-0
13.5%@ 8.44+8.2%
0-0
12.8%@ 11.93+9.1%
1-1
12.2%@ 6.81+5.6%
2-1 ✓
8.4%@ 7.50+2.5%
3-0
6.8%@ 12.90+3.3%
0-1
6.2%@ 12.83+2.7%
3-1
4.3%@ 12.05+0.5%
Heart Of Midlothian goals ↓
ST Johnstone goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
6.2%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
1
17%
12%
3.5%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
8.4%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
3
6.8%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
0.0%
4
2.6%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heart Of Midlothian goals (down), columns = ST Johnstone goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Heart Of Midlothian is 1.06 points better than ST Johnstone in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.77 goals better than ST Johnstone in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Heart Of Midlothian is 0.66 goals better than ST Johnstone in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heart Of Midlothian
For 5.2 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 13.3 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Johnstone
For 6.8 · Against 3.6 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 12.2 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.9
10.5
4.2
3.3
5.2
24.7
24.0
25.4
vs Stronger (11)
10.4
10.4
10.4
4.6
3.7
5.8
23.8
24.6
23.0
vs Similar (23)
10.0
9.8
10.2
4.7
3.8
5.9
25.6
25.2
26.2
vs Weaker (16)
10.2
9.4
10.9
3.3
2.3
4.1
23.6
20.4
25.9
% over line
61%
59%
64%
58%
38%
79%
66%
59%
73%
% under line
39%
41%
36%
42%
62%
21%
34%
41%
27%
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.9
9.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
21.3
23.9
18.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
9.7
9.9
9.6
1.4
1.5
1.4
21.9
23.9
19.6
vs Weaker (4)
8.0
-
8.0
0.5
0.0
0.7
13.0
-
13.0
% over line
44%
50%
38%
22%
28%
16%
50%
62%
38%
% under line
56%
50%
62%
78%
72%
84%
50%
38%
62%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Celtic
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Rangers
10.1
Aberdeen
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.0
Dundee
9.9
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Motherwell
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Hibernian
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Rangers
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.1
Falkirk
4.1
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.8
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.3
Motherwell
25.8
Aberdeen
25.5
Falkirk
25.3
Kilmarnock
24.4
Heart Of Midlothian
24.1
Hibernian
23.2
ST Johnstone
22.1
ST Mirren
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.8
Dundee
21.6
Celtic
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.0%
@ 1.88+3.5%
Under 9.5
47.0%
@ 1.84-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.87
Superbet
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
Unibet
1.82
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.7%
@ 1.57-3.3%
Under 3.5
44.3%
@ 2.26+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.46
Under
Unibet
2.43
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.15
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
67.3%
Under 21.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Heart Of Midlothian or Draw✓ Hit
85.9%
Avg Implied 79.1% · @ 1.18
Edge
+6.7%
58%
28%
14%
covers Heart Of Midlothian + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Heart Of Midlothian or ST Johnstone✓ Hit
72.0%
Avg Implied 76.0% · @ 1.23
Edge
-4.1%
58%
28%
14%
covers Heart Of Midlothian + ST Johnstone
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Draw or ST Johnstone✗ Miss
42.2%
Avg Implied 44.8% · @ 2.09
Edge
-2.7%
58%
28%
14%
covers Draw + ST Johnstone
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.15
SBO
2.11
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Betano
2.10
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.1%
@ 1.13-4.1%
Under
21.9%
@ 5.22+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Under
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Superbet
5.15
Unibet
5.10
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.8%
@ 1.72-9.8%
Under
55.2%
@ 2.07+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.16
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Betano
2.05
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.6%
@ 3.21-9.5%
Under
80.4%
@ 1.31+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.34
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Unibet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 6.80-6.9%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.08+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.80
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Superbet
1.08
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
46.5%
@ 1.45-17.6%
Under
53.5%
@ 2.60+17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.62
Betano
2.60
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 3.25-15.8%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.31+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
Betfair
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
Under
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 8.49-8.5%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.05+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.50
1xBet
8.30
Marathonbet
8.30
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
ST Johnstone over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.4%
@ 20.67-4.3%
Under
99.6%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Heart Of Midlothian, so a minus line means Heart Of Midlothian give that many goals of a start and ST Johnstone receive them. At -1, Heart Of Midlothian must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Heart Of Midlothian win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Heart Of Midlothian)Actual: ST Johnstone
Heart Of Midlothian -2
12.9%
@ 5.59-3.1%
Draw -2
18.3%
@ 4.83-0.2%
ST Johnstone +2
68.7%
@ 1.37+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.35
Unibet
5.30
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Handicap -1 (Heart Of Midlothian)Actual: Draw
Heart Of Midlothian -1
31.3%
@ 2.81-0.6%
Draw -1
26.6%
@ 3.54+1.3%
ST Johnstone +1
42.2%
@ 2.09-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.88
Superbet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Away
Unibet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
Superbet
2.07
Handicap +1 (Heart Of Midlothian)Actual: Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian +1
85.9%
@ 1.18+9.5%
Draw +1
10.3%
@ 6.09-4.5%
ST Johnstone -1
3.8%
@ 10.12-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Superbet
5.85
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Handicap +2 (Heart Of Midlothian)Actual: Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian +2
96.2%
@ 1.04+6.4%
Draw +2
3.1%
@ 13.67-3.7%
ST Johnstone -2
0.7%
@ 28.00-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
11.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
22.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.59
0.18
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.00
0.40
0.40
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.43
0.75
0.12
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.33
1.13
0.40
0.27
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.30
1.14
0.43
0.23
0.15
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.9%
@ 1.33+2.6%
Under 0.5
27.1%
@ 3.14-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
William Hil
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.0%
@ 2.53+0.2%
Under 1.5
63.0%
@ 1.47-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
Betano
2.62
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Under
Superbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.8%
@ 6.06-1.5%
Under 2.5
86.2%
@ 1.10+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.10
William Hil
6.00
Under
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
60.3%
@ 1.69+5.2%
Under
39.7%
@ 2.08-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.14
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Unibet
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
23.4%
@ 4.32+2.0%
Under
76.6%
@ 1.18-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.33
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 10.88-1.6%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
30.2%
@ 2.50-6.9%
Under
69.8%
@ 1.48+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Under
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 8.66-5.4%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.04+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.50
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 35.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
35.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
1.35
0.59
0.62
0.92
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.43
1.25
0.38
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.30
1.07
0.33
0.87
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.96
0.30
1.14
0.36
0.77
0.23
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.6%
@ 1.19+2.6%
Under 0.5
19.4%
@ 4.24-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Under
Betano
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
1xBet
4.25
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
49.9%
@ 1.93+1.5%
Under 1.5
50.1%
@ 1.81-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.97
Unibet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Under
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.5%
@ 3.88-2.4%
Under 2.5
78.5%
@ 1.22+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.10
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Marathonbet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
67.0%
@ 1.46+3.6%
Under
33.0%
@ 2.54-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Under
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.50
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
34.7%
@ 3.15+5.2%
Under
65.3%
@ 1.31-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
Under
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 7.80+0.3%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.05-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.30
Superbet
8.10
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
35.1%
@ 2.04-10.4%
Under
64.9%
@ 1.70+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 6.26-7.3%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.08+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.55
1xBet
6.40
Superbet
6.40
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 16.88-4.5%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.8%
1.03
Superbet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.02
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.4%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Pinnacle
1.16
10Bet
1.15
+11.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.2%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Superbet
1.08
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.5%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.8%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
87.0%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
+15.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.2%
1.10
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
85.9%
1.18
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
William Hil
1.20
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
85.9%
1.18
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.0%
1.41
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
+16.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.4%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.3%
1.35
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+10.9%
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.5%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.1%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.6%
1.18
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
-2.0%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
75.4%
1.21
Superbet
1.21
-
-
-
-
+2.0%
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.9%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.0%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.8%
1.30
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
+0.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Wilson60%
Josh McPake40%
C. Miller29%
Tom Renaud25%
L. Mendy25%
P. Kabore17%
O. McEntee14%
Cláudio Braga14%
Tomas Magnusson0%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
J. McCart0%
B. Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
H. Milne0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
S. Guendouz0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
S. Kerjota0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Milne33%
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
P. Kabore33%
Tomas Magnusson17%
O. McEntee14%
Cláudio Braga14%
Jordi Altena14%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
J. McCart0%
C. Miller0%
B. Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
S. Guendouz0%
Rogers Mato0%
J. Wilson0%
S. Kerjota0%
L. Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josh McPake40%
Rogers Mato33%
B. Spittal29%
Cláudio Braga29%
S. Kerjota20%
J. McCart17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
C. Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
H. Milne0%
O. McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
S. Guendouz0%
P. Kabore0%
J. Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
L. Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga57%
L. Mendy25%
Tomas Magnusson0%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
J. McCart0%
C. Miller0%
B. Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
H. Milne0%
O. McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
S. Guendouz0%
P. Kabore0%
Rogers Mato0%
J. Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
S. Kerjota0%
ST Johnstone
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Fowler50%
Ruari Paton25%
Cheick Diabate25%
K. Fotheringham25%
J. Holt0%
S. Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
L. Smith0%
J. Gullan0%
R. McAlear0%
M. Tait0%
T. Steward0%
Z. Mitchell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
L. Smith33%
S. Stanton25%
J. Gullan25%
Cheick Diabate25%
Z. Mitchell25%
J. Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Ruari Paton0%
R. McAlear0%
K. Fotheringham0%
M. Tait0%
T. Steward0%
Josh Fowler0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Tait33%
S. Stanton25%
J. Gullan25%
Josh Fowler25%
J. Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
L. Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
R. McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
K. Fotheringham0%
T. Steward0%
Z. Mitchell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Stanton25%
J. Gullan25%
Ruari Paton25%
J. Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
L. Smith0%
R. McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
K. Fotheringham0%
M. Tait0%
T. Steward0%
Z. Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Heart Of Midlothian's squad is €17m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€22m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's attack is €10m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€12m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Heart Of Midlothian's midfield is €3m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€4m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Heart Of Midlothian's defence is €4m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€6m vs €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
ST Mirren
Motherwell
Dundee
Rangers
Hibernian
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Falkirk
Kilmarnock