This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
3.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.83
0.60
3.33
0.60
2.33
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
2.00
0.50
1.67
0.67
2.33
0.33
vs Weaker (24)
3.04
0.62
3.75
0.58
2.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.7%
@ 1.33-12.3%
Under 2.5
41.3%
@ 3.25+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.3%
Under 3.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2 ✓
11.7%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
9.7%
1-1
9.6%
0-3
8.6%
1-3
7.2%
0-0
5.6%
0-4
4.8%
Heerenveen goals ↓
Ajax goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
9.7%
12%
8.6%
4.8%
1
3.1%
9.6%
9.7%
7.2%
4.0%
2
1.6%
3.6%
4.0%
3.0%
1.6%
3
0.5%
1.0%
1.1%
0.8%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heerenveen goals (down), columns = Ajax goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ajax
2.44
PSV Eindhoven
2.38
Feyenoord
2.09
Twente
2.00
AZ Alkmaar
1.79
Vitesse
1.50
Utrecht
1.38
Heerenveen
1.21
Cambuur
1.15
NEC Nijmegen
1.12
Waalwijk
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.06
Groningen
1.06
Sparta Rotterdam
1.03
Fortuna Sittard
1.03
Heracles
1.00
Willem II
0.97
PEC Zwolle
0.79
Heerenveen is 1.24 points worse than Ajax in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 2.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
2.88
PSV Eindhoven
2.53
Feyenoord
2.24
AZ Alkmaar
1.88
Twente
1.62
Cambuur
1.56
Utrecht
1.50
Vitesse
1.24
Groningen
1.21
Waalwijk
1.18
NEC Nijmegen
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.09
Heerenveen
1.09
Fortuna Sittard
1.06
Heracles
0.97
Willem II
0.94
Sparta Rotterdam
0.88
PEC Zwolle
0.76
Heerenveen is 1.79 goals worse than Ajax in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 2.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.56
Feyenoord
1.00
Twente
1.09
PSV Eindhoven
1.24
AZ Alkmaar
1.29
Utrecht
1.35
Sparta Rotterdam
1.41
Heracles
1.44
Heerenveen
1.47
Vitesse
1.50
GO Ahead Eagles
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
PEC Zwolle
1.53
NEC Nijmegen
1.53
Groningen
1.62
Willem II
1.68
Fortuna Sittard
1.97
Cambuur
2.06
Heerenveen is 0.91 goals worse than Ajax in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 0.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heerenveen
For 4.5 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 8.5 · Total 17.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajax
For 7.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.4 · Against 10.0 · Total 18.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heerenveen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.6
11.5
2.8
2.6
3.0
19.0
18.4
19.6
vs Stronger (13)
11.8
12.4
11.0
2.3
1.6
3.2
16.4
15.1
17.8
vs Similar (23)
10.3
8.7
11.5
2.7
2.5
2.8
19.9
20.1
19.7
vs Weaker (14)
11.6
11.2
12.0
3.4
3.6
3.2
20.0
19.2
21.0
% over line
60%
56%
64%
32%
28%
36%
26%
32%
20%
% under line
40%
44%
36%
68%
72%
64%
74%
68%
80%
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.6
10.3
2.4
2.3
2.6
20.5
19.9
21.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
8.9
10.6
6.0
2.5
1.4
4.3
22.2
19.6
26.7
vs Weaker (42)
10.7
10.6
10.9
2.4
2.5
2.3
20.2
19.9
20.4
% over line
60%
59%
61%
22%
15%
30%
40%
37%
43%
% under line
40%
41%
39%
78%
85%
70%
60%
63%
57%
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Heerenveen
11.0
Utrecht
10.5
Ajax
10.4
Feyenoord
10.2
PEC Zwolle
10.1
PSV Eindhoven
10.1
Heracles
9.7
AZ Alkmaar
9.6
GO Ahead Eagles
9.5
Sparta Rotterdam
9.5
Vitesse
9.3
Cambuur
9.2
Fortuna Sittard
9.2
Groningen
9.2
Twente
9.1
Waalwijk
9.1
Willem II
9.0
NEC Nijmegen
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NEC Nijmegen
4.4
Vitesse
4.0
GO Ahead Eagles
3.4
Utrecht
3.3
AZ Alkmaar
3.3
Twente
3.3
Feyenoord
3.3
Heracles
3.2
Sparta Rotterdam
3.0
Groningen
3.0
Cambuur
3.0
Fortuna Sittard
3.0
Waalwijk
3.0
PEC Zwolle
2.9
Willem II
2.9
Heerenveen
2.8
PSV Eindhoven
2.6
Ajax
2.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Vitesse
25.9
PEC Zwolle
22.8
Fortuna Sittard
22.7
Cambuur
22.2
Twente
22.2
Groningen
22.2
NEC Nijmegen
22.1
Feyenoord
22.1
Heracles
22.0
Waalwijk
21.6
Willem II
21.4
AZ Alkmaar
21.3
Utrecht
21.2
Sparta Rotterdam
20.7
Ajax
20.5
PSV Eindhoven
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
19.6
Heerenveen
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
50.0%
Under 9.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.1%
Under 3.5
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
33.6%
Under 21.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heerenveen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.69
0.69
0.29
0.29
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.57
1.33
0.67
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.59
0.22
1.00
0.38
0.12
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
1.25
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.20
1.67
0.20
1.33
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (24)
1.71
0.12
1.92
0.08
1.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
83% (+59pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heerenveen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.56
0.62
0.64
1.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.71
0.33
1.00
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.71
0.56
0.44
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
1.00
0.75
0.75
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.40
1.67
0.40
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.67
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.33
0.50
1.83
0.50
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heerenveen · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jacob Trenskow50%
Luca Oyen33%
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Oyen33%
Dirk Wanner Proper25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Vente25%
Sam Kersten25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Ajax · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Davy Klaassen57%
Tolu Arokodare50%
Julian Brandt43%
Mika Godts33%
Kasper Dolberg25%
Owen Wijndal25%
Marcos Leonardo25%
Anton Gaaei25%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen17%
Youri Baas17%
Steven Berghuis14%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Jorthy Mokio12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Caio Henrique0%
Maarten Paes0%
Lucas Rosa0%
Youri Regeer0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lucas Rosa40%
Youri Regeer29%
Anton Gaaei25%
Jorthy Mokio25%
Aaron Bouwman25%
Davy Klaassen14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Marcos Leonardo12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Kasper Dolberg0%
Julian Brandt0%
Caio Henrique0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Steven Berghuis0%
Maarten Paes0%
Tolu Arokodare0%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen0%
Youri Baas0%
Oscar Gloukh0%
Mika Godts0%
Dies Janse0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mika Godts67%
Steven Berghuis43%
Tolu Arokodare33%
Caio Henrique29%
Lucas Rosa20%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen17%
Youri Regeer14%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Jorthy Mokio12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Kasper Dolberg0%
Julian Brandt0%
Davy Klaassen0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Maarten Paes0%
Marcos Leonardo0%
Youri Baas0%
Anton Gaaei0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mika Godts67%
Kasper Dolberg50%
Steven Berghuis43%
Marcos Leonardo38%
Anton Gaaei25%
Jorthy Mokio25%
Tolu Arokodare17%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Julian Brandt0%
Caio Henrique0%
Davy Klaassen0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Maarten Paes0%
Lucas Rosa0%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen0%
Youri Regeer0%
Youri Baas0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
Abdellah Ouazane0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
HER (28)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
Heerenveen's squad is €123m less valuable than Ajax's (€50m vs €173m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
CAM (10)
€3m
Heerenveen's attack is €71m less valuable than Ajax's (€24m vs €95m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
Heerenveen's midfield is €8m less valuable than Ajax's (€6m vs €15m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
WI (12)
€5m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
Heerenveen's defence is €43m less valuable than Ajax's (€20m vs €63m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Twente
AZ Alkmaar
Vitesse
Utrecht
Cambuur
Waalwijk
NEC Nijmegen
Groningen
GO Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard
Heracles
Willem II
PEC Zwolle