PythiaFootballBETA
Heerenveen's recent form has been a concern, coming off a defeat in their last match against Utrecht, where they conceded 3 goals. However, their home form against stronger opponents suggests a different story, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding 1.5.
In contrast, Ajax has been on a 2-game winning run, scoring an average of 2.08 goals when away to weaker opponents. Their away form is impressive, conceding only 1.38 goals on average. This high-scoring match is expected, with a predicted total of 3.3 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11%.
The model's selection is the away win, with a probability of 38%. The home win percentage is 37%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 38%. The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 85.3%.
A surprise result in the Netherlands: Eredivisie as Heerenveen held Ajax to a 0-0 draw, extending their winless run. The actual result was a draw, contrary to the predicted outcome. The pre-match favourite, Ajax, failed to come through, as their predicted probability of winning stood at 38%. However, the model's selection, an away win, was incorrect, as the actual result did not favour the model's call. The model's selection of an away win had a 38% probability. The suggested picks included an Over 1.5 goal margin, which had an 85.3% probability but ultimately missed, while the most likely score was a 1-1 draw with a 22% probability.
Heerenveen| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.83 | 1.63 | 2.25 | 1.42 | 1.56 | 1.78 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.33 | 2.11 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| vs Similar (16) | 2.12 | 1.38 | 2.50 | 1.17 | 1.90 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.80 | 1.60 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
Ajax| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.50 | 1.60 | 1.33 | 2.13 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.80 | 1.00 | 2.25 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 2.24 | 1.29 | 1.90 | 1.10 | 2.55 | 1.45 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| Ajax goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 11% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
HeerenveenAjaxHeerenveen| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 21.0 | 20.3 | 21.6 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 9.7 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 21.1 | 19.2 | 22.2 |
| vs Similar (28) | 10.3 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 21.2 | 20.9 | 21.5 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 9.3 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 19.7 | 19.0 | 20.0 |
| % over line | 52% | 57% | 48% | 32% | 39% | 26% | 42% | 35% | 48% |
| % under line | 48% | 43% | 52% | 68% | 61% | 74% | 58% | 65% | 52% |
Ajax| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 22.1 | 24.0 | 20.2 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 9.5 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 25.1 | 25.4 | 24.7 |
| vs Weaker (36) | 10.0 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 20.9 | 23.4 | 18.4 |
| % over line | 50% | 44% | 56% | 44% | 36% | 52% | 56% | 76% | 36% |
| % under line | 50% | 56% | 44% | 56% | 64% | 48% | 44% | 24% | 64% |
Heerenveen| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.78 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.67 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.88 | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.60 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Ajax| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.13 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.22 | 0.56 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 1.43 | 0.38 | 1.30 | 0.30 | 1.55 | 0.45 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+39pp vs league) | |||||
Heerenveen| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.90 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 0.94 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.20 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Ajax| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.07 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.78 | 1.44 | 0.60 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 0.81 | 0.90 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 87.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 85.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 77.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 75.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 19/01/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 11/08/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 11/02/24 | H | 3-2 | |
| 05/11/23 | A | 4-1 | |
| 12/03/23 | H | 2-4 | |
| 10/09/22 | A | 5-0 | |
| 11/05/22 | A | 5-0 |
Heerenveen| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 2-1 |
Ajax| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 84 | 79% | 2.5 | 101 | 45 | +56 | 4.3 | 97% | 85% | 59% | 11.6 | 79% | 3.4 | 29% | 18.6 | 21% | 323 | 139 | 77 | 108 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 34 | 65 | 56% | 1.9 | 70 | 44 | +26 | 3.4 | 85% | 59% | 38% | 10.6 | 56% | 3.6 | 45% | 21.6 | 50% | 216 | 78 | 51 | 87 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 53% |
| 3 | Ajax | 36 | 60 | 42% | 1.7 | 65 | 42 | +23 | 3.0 | 94% | 56% | 39% | 10.0 | 53% | 3.7 | 44% | 22.4 | 58% | 260 | 119 | 53 | 87 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 4 |  NEC Nijmegen | 34 | 59 | 47% | 1.7 | 77 | 53 | +24 | 3.8 | 97% | 74% | 56% | 10.1 | 53% | 4.1 | 47% | 24.1 | 65% | 62 | 27 | 26 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 57% |
| 5 |  Twente | 34 | 58 | 44% | 1.7 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 2.9 | 85% | 50% | 32% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.6 | 38% | 20.6 | 41% | 84 | 26 | 13 | 45 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 6 |  Utrecht | 36 | 57 | 44% | 1.6 | 59 | 45 | +14 | 2.9 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 9.9 | 58% | 3.4 | 46% | 21.9 | 47% | 88 | 30 | 24 | 34 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 52 | 41% | 1.5 | 58 | 51 | +7 | 3.2 | 82% | 65% | 44% | 10.3 | 56% | 3.6 | 39% | 21.6 | 50% | 205 | 100 | 43 | 62 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 36 | 51 | 39% | 1.4 | 59 | 58 | +1 | 3.2 | 94% | 69% | 39% | 10.6 | 61% | 3.1 | 37% | 20.4 | 42% | 49 | 22 | 6 | 20 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 9 |  Groningen | 35 | 48 | 40% | 1.4 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 2.7 | 89% | 54% | 23% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.5 | 45% | 20.8 | 51% | 32 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 10 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 43 | 35% | 1.3 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 3.0 | 76% | 53% | 38% | 11.2 | 68% | 4.1 | 68% | 20.7 | 44% | 32 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 11 |  Fortuna Sittard | 34 | 39 | 32% | 1.1 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 3.3 | 88% | 68% | 38% | 11.1 | 59% | 3.6 | 42% | 23.9 | 65% | 22 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 45% |
| 12 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 34 | 38 | 24% | 1.1 | 54 | 53 | +1 | 3.1 | 85% | 62% | 47% | 11.6 | 71% | 3.5 | 39% | 19.1 | 24% | 36 | 17 | 6 | 14 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 13 |  Excelsior | 34 | 38 | 29% | 1.1 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 2.9 | 82% | 62% | 29% | 9.3 | 44% | 3.3 | 40% | 21.0 | 41% | 19 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  Telstar | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 3.1 | 88% | 59% | 38% | 11.1 | 65% | 3.5 | 41% | 21.6 | 47% | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 3.4 | 85% | 62% | 44% | 9.7 | 50% | 3.5 | 47% | 23.3 | 68% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 45% |
| 16 |  FC Volendam | 34 | 32 | 24% | 0.9 | 35 | 55 | -20 | 2.6 | 85% | 59% | 18% | 10.3 | 62% | 3.8 | 50% | 21.8 | 50% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 17 |  NAC Breda | 35 | 32 | 20% | 0.9 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 2.7 | 71% | 49% | 26% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.7 | 69% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 18 |  Heracles | 34 | 19 | 15% | 0.6 | 35 | 85 | -50 | 3.5 | 91% | 71% | 38% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.9 | 53% | 24.8 | 74% | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 45% |