Heerenveen’s recent 0-2 loss to PEC Zwolle leaves them looking defensive, while AZ Alkmaar’s four-game winning streak, highlighted by a 5-2 triumph over GO Ahead Eagles, fuels confidence on the road. The model favours an away win, with a 58% chance for AZ, a 23% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of a Heerenveen victory. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a lively contest, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6% probability. Heerenveen, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, whereas AZ, facing a weaker opponent away, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.8%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.4%) and Away under 3.5 goals (93.7%). These picks reflect a low-scoring, tightly contested match with AZ as the clear favourite.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heerenveen win
20.1%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.79
Edge
-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.91
10Bet
3.85
Dafabet
3.85
Draw
23.0%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 4.04
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.20
Dafabet
4.20
1xBet
4.16
Betano
4.15
Pinnacle
4.14
AZ Alkmaar win
56.9%
Avg Implied 52.2% · @ 1.79
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.84
Dafabet
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heerenveen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.63
1.69
1.15
1.59
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.25
0.67
1.33
1.40
2.80
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.43
1.89
1.11
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AZ Alkmaar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.20
2.53
1.12
1.23
1.31
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
1.75
1.38
1.67
1.33
1.80
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
2.10
1.10
2.71
1.07
0.86
1.14
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.0%
@ 1.11+0.1%
Under 1.5
16.0%
@ 5.78-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Under
Unibet
6.25
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Pinnacle
5.82
10Bet
5.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.2%
@ 1.42-3.5%
Under 2.5
37.8%
@ 2.73+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.41
Under
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.80
10Bet
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Betano
2.75
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.0%
@ 2.10-4.9%
Under 3.5
60.0%
@ 1.71+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
1xBet
2.14
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Unibet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Both teams to score
Yes
60.8%
@ 1.43-3.9%
No
39.2%
@ 2.62+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
No
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.66
Unibet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%@ 8.11+5.0%
1-2
9.8%@ 8.03+4.2%
0-2
8.5%@ 11.08+4.4%
0-1
7.3%@ 10.83+3.1%
1-3
6.7%@ 11.43+2.7%
0-3
5.8%@ 15.36+2.8%
2-2
5.7%@ 10.88+1.5%
2-1
5.6%@ 12.00+1.8%
Heerenveen goals ↓
AZ Alkmaar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
7.3%
8.5%
5.8%
3.0%
1
3.7%
11%
9.8%
6.7%
3.4%
2
2.7%
5.6%
5.7%
3.9%
2.0%
3
1.1%
2.2%
2.2%
1.5%
0.8%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heerenveen goals (down), columns = AZ Alkmaar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Heerenveen is 0.11 points worse than AZ Alkmaar in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Heerenveen is 0.07 goals worse than AZ Alkmaar in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Heerenveen is 0.11 goals worse than AZ Alkmaar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Heerenveen is 2.0 percentage points worse than AZ Alkmaar in terms of average possession (51% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heerenveen
For 5.1 · Against 6.1 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 8.4 · Total 17.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
For 7.0 · Against 4.7 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heerenveen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.8
10.6
2.9
3.0
2.8
20.0
19.4
20.6
vs Stronger (13)
10.1
10.4
9.9
2.7
1.8
3.2
19.5
18.0
20.4
vs Similar (34)
10.4
9.5
11.2
3.1
3.5
2.6
20.5
19.9
21.1
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
12.0
7.5
2.0
1.0
2.5
17.3
18.0
17.0
% over line
54%
57%
52%
32%
35%
30%
36%
30%
41%
% under line
46%
43%
48%
68%
65%
70%
64%
70%
59%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.7
10.0
3.6
3.6
3.7
22.6
22.3
23.0
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
10.0
11.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
15.0
19.0
11.0
vs Similar (13)
9.0
8.5
9.4
4.1
4.2
4.0
25.4
25.2
25.6
vs Weaker (35)
10.9
11.4
10.3
3.5
3.4
3.5
22.1
21.6
22.6
% over line
60%
63%
57%
42%
44%
39%
56%
56%
57%
% under line
40%
37%
43%
58%
56%
61%
44%
44%
43%
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.9%
@ 1.53+0.3%
Under 9.5
39.1%
@ 2.35-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.53
Betfair
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Under
Betano
2.42
Betfair
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Unibet
2.20
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
38.5%
@ 1.93-9.7%
Under 3.5
61.5%
@ 1.80+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.80
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
39.6%
Under 21.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Heerenveen or Draw
57.8%
Avg Implied 47.1% · @ 1.99
Edge
+10.7%
20%
23%
57%
covers Heerenveen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.06
SBO
2.03
Betano
2.00
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Heerenveen or AZ Alkmaar
72.6%
Avg Implied 77.4% · @ 1.21
Edge
-4.8%
20%
23%
57%
covers Heerenveen + AZ Alkmaar
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Draw or AZ Alkmaar
69.6%
Avg Implied 75.5% · @ 1.24
Edge
-5.9%
20%
23%
57%
covers Draw + AZ Alkmaar
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5
Over
72.0%
@ 1.27-1.0%
Under
28.0%
@ 3.43+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.64
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Heerenveen over/under 1.5
Over
36.4%
@ 2.32-3.8%
Under
63.6%
@ 1.56+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.39
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.35
Unibet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
BetVictor
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Heerenveen over/under 2.5
Over
13.7%
@ 5.31-3.9%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.13+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.40
Unibet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Heerenveen over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
@ 12.12-3.8%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5
Over
78.4%
@ 1.09-6.9%
Under
21.6%
@ 6.31+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Under
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.45
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.25
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5
Over
45.3%
@ 1.54-15.5%
Under
54.7%
@ 2.39+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.59
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
BetVictor
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.45
BetVictor
2.38
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.38
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5
Over
19.9%
@ 2.70-14.5%
Under
80.1%
@ 1.42+14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
1xBet
2.71
Under
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
AZ Alkmaar over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
@ 5.42-10.2%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.12+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.45
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Heerenveen, so a minus line means Heerenveen give that many goals of a start and AZ Alkmaar receive them. At -1, Heerenveen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Heerenveen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Heerenveen)
Heerenveen -2
4.6%
@ 17.50-0.7%
Draw -2
9.0%
@ 10.75+0.4%
AZ Alkmaar +2
86.5%
@ 1.06+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
20.00
Bet365
19.00
Unibet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Draw
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (Heerenveen)
Heerenveen -1
13.5%
@ 7.86+2.1%
Draw -1
16.9%
@ 5.80+1.4%
AZ Alkmaar +1
69.6%
@ 1.24-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
Unibet
5.75
10Bet
5.50
Away
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Handicap +1 (Heerenveen)
Heerenveen +1
57.8%
@ 1.98+12.8%
Draw +1
20.6%
@ 3.83-2.8%
AZ Alkmaar -1
21.6%
@ 2.83-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.04
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Bet365
1.91
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Away
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.84
10Bet
2.80
Betfair
2.80
Unibet
2.70
Handicap +2 (Heerenveen)
Heerenveen +2
78.4%
@ 1.37+12.6%
Draw +2
13.0%
@ 5.12-4.6%
AZ Alkmaar -2
8.6%
@ 5.41-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Away
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heerenveen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.69
0.62
0.53
0.82
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.38
0.33
1.33
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.52
0.78
0.44
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
1.00
0.24
0.31
0.54
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.25
0.33
0.00
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (21)
0.76
0.38
1.14
0.29
0.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
73% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.9%
@ 1.21-5.3%
Under 0.5
29.1%
@ 3.88+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Under
William Hil
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.90
1xBet
3.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.2%
@ 2.09-10.5%
Under 1.5
65.8%
@ 1.69+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.07
Under
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
William Hil
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 4.39-8.6%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.17+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Betano
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.8%
@ 2.04-1.7%
Under
56.2%
@ 1.71+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.09
Unibet
2.07
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
Under
1xBet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.4%
@ 6.21-4.5%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.09+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.55
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.25
1xBet
6.10
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
@ 12.00-6.2%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.5%
@ 1.58-9.6%
Under
50.5%
@ 2.28+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.34
Unibet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.20
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.5%
@ 3.73-11.3%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.23+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.85
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.70
1xBet
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
@ 9.58-6.6%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.03+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heerenveen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.90
1.00
0.54
1.06
1.18
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.33
0.00
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (21)
1.14
0.90
1.11
0.67
1.17
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.83
1.53
0.88
0.92
0.77
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.12
1.33
1.33
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.33
0.71
1.57
0.79
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.8%
@ 1.12-4.3%
Under 0.5
21.2%
@ 5.51+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Under
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.60
10Bet
5.60
Betano
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.3%
@ 1.64-11.6%
Under 1.5
54.7%
@ 2.17+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Betano
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Under
Unibet
2.23
Betano
2.22
10Bet
2.20
William Hil
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.2%
@ 2.93-12.5%
Under 2.5
80.8%
@ 1.35+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
1xBet
2.93
Betano
2.90
Under
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.33
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.8%
@ 1.72-2.0%
Under
48.2%
@ 2.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.74
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.95
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.3%
@ 4.53-5.1%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.17+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.3%
@ 9.75-6.3%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.2%
@ 1.39-7.0%
Under
39.8%
@ 2.83+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Under
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.80
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.8%
@ 2.74-12.9%
Under
79.2%
@ 1.39+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.80
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.72
10Bet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.7%
@ 6.55-9.4%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.07+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.05
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.2%
Under 6.5
97.5%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Unibet
1.02
-
+5.5%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+6.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+3.8%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
+9.4%
Under 5.5
93.4%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
+8.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.0%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
+10.2%
Under 5.5 cards
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
+4.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.17
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+8.6%
Under 25.5 fouls
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.23
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+11.3%
Away +2 handicap
86.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-
+0.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
86.3%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.12
+3.9%
Under 4.5
84.7%
1.28
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+11.7%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.17
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
-
+5.1%
Over 1.5
84.0%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
+0.1%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.35
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.33
+12.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
80.1%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
+14.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.39
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
-
+12.9%
Under 4.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
1.12
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
-4.3%
Home +2 handicap
78.4%
1.37
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
+12.6%
Away over 0.5 goals
78.4%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
-6.9%
Under 23.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
1.21
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-4.8%
Over 8.5 corners
72.6%
1.28
Unibet
1.34
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
+0.3%
Home over 0.5 goals
72.0%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
-1.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.21
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
William Hil
1.20
-5.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heerenveen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jacob Trenskow50%
Luca Oyen33%
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Oyen33%
Dirk Wanner Proper25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Vente25%
Sam Kersten25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
AZ Alkmaar
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ro-Zangelo Daal50%
Calvin Stengs25%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Weslley Patati25%
Lewis Schouten25%
Dave Kwakman25%
Mexx Meerdink25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslley Patati25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Calvin Stengs50%
Kees Smit50%
Mateo Chávez50%
Dave Kwakman25%
Jari De Busser0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Weslley Patati0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Weslley Patati50%
Dave Kwakman50%
Mexx Meerdink50%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Ro-Zangelo Daal25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Mateo Chávez0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Heerenveen's squad is €85m less valuable than AZ Alkmaar's (€50m vs €136m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Heerenveen's attack is €37m less valuable than AZ Alkmaar's (€24m vs €61m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Heerenveen's midfield is €15m less valuable than AZ Alkmaar's (€6m vs €21m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Heerenveen's defence is €33m less valuable than AZ Alkmaar's (€20m vs €54m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur