Heerenveen’s recent draw against Willem II leaves them only marginally better than the average at home, scoring 0.67 goals and conceding 1.33, while Feyenoord, unbeaten in five matches, thrives on the road, averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.38 conceded against weaker opponents. The model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, with a 67% probability, followed by a 19% chance of a draw and a 14% chance of a home win. The expected total goals is 3.5, with the most likely total being three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-2 for Feyenoord, a 9.6% probability. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Under 6.5 (96.4%), Under 5.5 (91.1%), Away +2 handicap (91.0%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.9%), Under 5.5 cards (88.0%) and Away under 3.5 goals (87.6%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heerenveen win
15.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord win
64.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Heerenveen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.63
1.69
1.15
1.59
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.25
0.67
1.33
1.40
2.80
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.43
1.89
1.11
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feyenoord
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.53
2.27
1.53
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.00
2.50
vs Weaker (25)
2.16
1.44
2.58
1.50
1.77
1.38
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.2%
Under 1.5
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.1%
Under 2.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.2%
Under 3.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.7%
1-1
9.2%
0-2
9.0%
1-3
7.5%
0-3
7.0%
0-1
6.9%
2-2
5.2%
2-1
4.5%
Heerenveen goals ↓
Feyenoord goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
6.9%
9.0%
7.0%
4.1%
1
2.8%
9.2%
9.7%
7.5%
4.4%
2
1.9%
4.5%
5.2%
4.0%
2.4%
3
0.7%
1.6%
1.9%
1.5%
0.8%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heerenveen goals (down), columns = Feyenoord goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Heerenveen is 0.50 points worse than Feyenoord in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Heerenveen is 0.42 goals worse than Feyenoord in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 2.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Heerenveen is 0.32 goals worse than Feyenoord in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Heerenveen is 1.9 percentage points worse than Feyenoord in terms of average possession (51% vs 53%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Heerenveen or Draw
48.9%
Avg Implied -
15%
20%
64%
covers Heerenveen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen or Feyenoord
74.9%
Avg Implied -
15%
20%
64%
covers Heerenveen + Feyenoord
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Feyenoord
76.2%
Avg Implied -
15%
20%
64%
covers Draw + Feyenoord
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5
Over
69.7%
Under
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5
Over
33.5%
Under
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 0.5
Over
83.9%
Under
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 1.5
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 2.5
Over
27.6%
Under
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 3.5
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Heerenveen, so a minus line means Heerenveen give that many goals of a start and Feyenoord receive them. At -1, Heerenveen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Heerenveen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Heerenveen)
Heerenveen -2
3.1%
Draw -2
6.8%
Feyenoord +2
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Heerenveen)
Heerenveen -1
9.9%
Draw -1
13.9%
Feyenoord +1
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Heerenveen)
Heerenveen +1
48.9%
Draw +1
21.8%
Feyenoord -1
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Heerenveen)
Heerenveen +2
70.7%
Draw +2
15.9%
Feyenoord -2
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heerenveen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.69
0.62
0.53
0.82
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.38
0.33
1.33
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.52
0.78
0.44
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feyenoord
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
0.93
0.67
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.40
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.08
0.60
1.08
0.58
1.08
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heerenveen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.90
1.00
0.54
1.06
1.18
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.33
0.00
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (21)
1.14
0.90
1.11
0.67
1.17
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feyenoord
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.33
0.87
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.08
0.84
1.50
0.92
0.69
0.77
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heerenveen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jacob Trenskow50%
Luca Oyen33%
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Oyen33%
Dirk Wanner Proper25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Vente25%
Sam Kersten25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Feyenoord
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ayase Ueda75%
Luciano Valente50%
Gjivai Zechiël50%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Gaoussou Diarra0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Charles Vanhoutte25%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Ayase Ueda0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Luciano Valente0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Gjivai Zechiël0%
Gaoussou Diarra0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oussama Targhalline33%
Ayase Ueda25%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Gjivai Zechiël25%
Gaoussou Diarra25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Luciano Valente0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ayase Ueda75%
Anis Hadj Moussa50%
Gaoussou Diarra50%
Luciano Valente25%
Gjivai Zechiël25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Heerenveen's squad is €179m less valuable than Feyenoord's (€50m vs €229m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Heerenveen's attack is €69m less valuable than Feyenoord's (€24m vs €93m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Heerenveen's midfield is €36m less valuable than Feyenoord's (€6m vs €43m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Heerenveen's defence is €73m less valuable than Feyenoord's (€20m vs €93m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur