This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.06
2.06
1.12
2.62
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
3.00
0.67
4.67
1.67
1.33
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.50
1.40
1.40
0.60
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
12% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.3%
Under 2.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.3%
Under 3.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1
8.9%
1-0 ✓
8.7%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.2%
0-1
7.2%
2-2
5.5%
Heerenveen goals ↓
NAC Breda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
7.2%
5.2%
2.1%
0.7%
1
8.7%
13%
7.5%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.2%
8.9%
5.5%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.5%
4.3%
2.6%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heerenveen goals (down), columns = NAC Breda goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.44
Ajax
2.32
AZ Alkmaar
2.09
Feyenoord
1.94
Utrecht
1.59
Vitesse
1.44
Den Haag
1.38
Heerenveen
1.35
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Heracles
1.24
Excelsior
1.18
Groningen
1.12
Willem II
1.09
NAC Breda
1.00
VVV Venlo
1.00
Roda
0.88
Sparta Rotterdam
0.79
Twente
0.71
Heerenveen is 0.35 points better than NAC Breda in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
2.62
PSV Eindhoven
2.56
Feyenoord
2.24
AZ Alkmaar
2.12
Vitesse
1.85
Utrecht
1.71
Heracles
1.47
Groningen
1.47
Willem II
1.47
Heerenveen
1.41
Den Haag
1.32
Roda
1.24
PEC Zwolle
1.24
Excelsior
1.21
NAC Breda
1.21
Twente
1.09
VVV Venlo
1.03
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
Heerenveen is 0.21 goals better than NAC Breda in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.97
AZ Alkmaar
1.12
Feyenoord
1.15
PSV Eindhoven
1.15
Vitesse
1.38
Groningen
1.47
Utrecht
1.56
Den Haag
1.56
Heerenveen
1.56
PEC Zwolle
1.59
VVV Venlo
1.59
Excelsior
1.65
NAC Breda
1.68
Willem II
1.85
Twente
1.85
Heracles
1.88
Roda
2.03
Sparta Rotterdam
2.21
Heerenveen is 0.12 goals better than NAC Breda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heerenveen
For 5.3 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 12.2 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NAC Breda
For 4.7 · Against 6.4 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 12.7 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heerenveen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.3
10.2
1.1
1.2
0.9
26.2
29.0
24.1
vs Stronger (12)
10.5
9.3
14.0
1.8
2.7
0.4
28.2
32.0
17.0
vs Similar (28)
10.2
10.5
10.2
0.9
0.8
1.0
26.0
27.0
25.7
vs Weaker (10)
8.2
8.0
8.5
0.7
0.4
1.0
24.8
26.5
23.0
% over line
62%
57%
67%
12%
17%
8%
88%
100%
78%
% under line
38%
43%
33%
88%
83%
92%
12%
0%
22%
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (16)
11.2
11.4
11.1
3.6
4.6
2.6
24.4
25.4
23.5
vs Stronger (6)
13.3
12.3
14.3
3.7
4.0
3.3
27.5
26.3
28.7
vs Similar (10)
10.0
10.8
9.2
3.6
5.0
2.2
22.6
24.8
20.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
75%
75%
50%
88%
12%
69%
75%
62%
% under line
25%
25%
25%
50%
12%
88%
31%
25%
38%
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sparta Rotterdam
13.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.9
Heracles
11.8
AZ Alkmaar
11.6
Feyenoord
11.5
Utrecht
11.3
Ajax
11.3
NAC Breda
11.2
Den Haag
11.1
Excelsior
10.9
Groningen
10.2
VVV Venlo
10.1
Vitesse
10.1
Twente
10.0
Heerenveen
9.8
Roda
9.8
PEC Zwolle
9.4
Willem II
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
PEC Zwolle
4.5
Ajax
4.3
Twente
4.2
PSV Eindhoven
4.2
Groningen
4.1
Den Haag
4.0
Excelsior
3.9
Vitesse
3.7
NAC Breda
3.6
Utrecht
3.5
Sparta Rotterdam
3.4
Heerenveen
3.3
AZ Alkmaar
3.1
VVV Venlo
3.1
Feyenoord
3.0
Heracles
2.9
Willem II
2.8
Roda
2.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Twente
27.2
Vitesse
26.5
PSV Eindhoven
26.4
Sparta Rotterdam
26.3
Heerenveen
26.2
Ajax
26.2
Excelsior
25.6
Heracles
25.4
Den Haag
25.3
Feyenoord
25.3
Utrecht
25.2
PEC Zwolle
24.8
AZ Alkmaar
24.7
NAC Breda
24.4
Willem II
23.6
Roda
23.5
Groningen
23.1
VVV Venlo
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.5%
Under 9.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.8%
Under 3.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.0%
Under 21.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heerenveen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.50
0.71
0.62
1.12
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
0.80
0.60
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.94
0.33
0.67
0.64
1.09
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
0.88
0.38
0.88
0.38
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.33
2.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.70
0.40
0.20
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
56% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heerenveen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.79
0.93
0.75
0.94
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.29
0.20
1.40
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.65
1.00
0.50
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
1.19
0.75
1.75
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.83
0.33
2.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.80
1.00
1.20
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heerenveen · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jacob Trenskow50%
Luca Oyen33%
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Oyen33%
Dirk Wanner Proper25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Vente25%
Sam Kersten25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
NAC Breda · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Gladon50%
Moussa Soumano50%
Pepijn Reulen50%
Leo Greiml0%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Rio Hillen0%
Mats Seuntjens0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jan Van den Bergh50%
Fredrik Jensen50%
Mats Seuntjens33%
Maximilien Balard33%
Michael Verrips25%
Paul Gladon25%
Mohamed Nassoh25%
Pepijn Reulen25%
Leo Greiml0%
Rio Hillen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Imran Nazih0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mats Seuntjens33%
Jannes Van Hecke33%
Boyd Lucassen25%
Leo Greiml0%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Rio Hillen0%
Paul Gladon0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Pepijn Reulen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paul Gladon50%
Mats Seuntjens33%
Leo Greiml25%
Rio Hillen25%
Charles-Andreas Brym25%
Moussa Soumano25%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Pepijn Reulen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
PZ (23)
€21m
EXC (24)
€16m
WI (24)
€13m
NB (23)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
VV (19)
€4m
Heerenveen's squad is €40m more valuable than NAC Breda's (€50m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
WI (8)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
VV (6)
€1m
Heerenveen's attack is €20m more valuable than NAC Breda's (€24m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
NB (3)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
Heerenveen's midfield is €4m more valuable than NAC Breda's (€6m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
Heerenveen's defence is €16m more valuable than NAC Breda's (€20m vs €4m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord
Utrecht
Vitesse
PEC Zwolle
Heracles
Excelsior
Groningen
Willem II
VVV Venlo
Roda
Sparta Rotterdam
Twente