The model favours an away win, with a 57 % chance for Dainava, 24 % for a draw and 18 % for Hegelmann II. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.6 % probability. Hegelmann II, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded, while Dainava, on the road, has shown a solid unbeaten run (DDWDW) and a 1-1 draw against Atmosfera. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.2 %), Under 6.5 (97.3 %), Away +2 handicap (93.3 %), Under 5.5 (93.0 %), Home under 2.5 goals (92.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (87.9 %) and Away over 0.5 goals (84.7 %). These picks reflect the low scoring nature of the match and the slight edge Dainava holds.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hegelmann II win
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dainava win
57.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hegelmann II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.00
1.25
1.94
1.07
2.07
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
1.75
1.33
1.83
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (11)
0.45
1.91
0.17
1.83
0.80
2.00
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
2.57
2.75
2.25
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.70
0.75
1.62
1.43
1.79
vs Stronger (15)
1.13
1.53
0.57
1.71
1.62
1.38
vs Similar (12)
0.92
2.17
0.67
2.00
1.17
2.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.4%
Under 2.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.0%
Under 3.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
9.9%
0-1
9.7%
0-0
6.8%
0-3
6.3%
1-3
6.2%
2-1
5.2%
Hegelmann II goals ↓
Dainava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
9.7%
10%
6.3%
2.9%
1
4.6%
12%
9.9%
6.2%
2.9%
2
2.8%
5.2%
4.9%
3.0%
1.4%
3
0.9%
1.7%
1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann II goals (down), columns = Dainava goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Hegelmann II is 0.64 points worse than Dainava in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Hegelmann II is 0.02 goals worse than Dainava in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Hegelmann II is 1.74 goals worse than Dainava in terms of goals conceded per game (2.57 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hegelmann II or Draw
42.9%
Avg Implied -
18%
24%
57%
covers Hegelmann II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II or Dainava
75.5%
Avg Implied -
18%
24%
57%
covers Hegelmann II + Dainava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dainava
81.6%
Avg Implied -
18%
24%
57%
covers Draw + Dainava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5
Over
62.6%
Under
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5
Over
25.8%
Under
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5
Over
84.6%
Under
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5
Over
55.8%
Under
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5
Over
28.9%
Under
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 3.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hegelmann II, so a minus line means Hegelmann II give that many goals of a start and Dainava receive them. At -1, Hegelmann II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hegelmann II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hegelmann II)
Hegelmann II -2
1.8%
Draw -2
4.9%
Dainava +2
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hegelmann II)
Hegelmann II -1
6.7%
Draw -1
11.7%
Dainava +1
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hegelmann II)
Hegelmann II +1
42.9%
Draw +1
23.2%
Dainava -1
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hegelmann II)
Hegelmann II +2
66.1%
Draw +2
17.9%
Dainava -2
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hegelmann II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.03
0.56
1.00
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.83
0.83
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.18
1.18
0.00
1.00
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
1.14
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.67
0.43
1.00
0.50
0.38
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.58
0.17
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hegelmann II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.69
0.94
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.92
0.50
1.17
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.73
0.17
0.83
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
1.43
1.75
0.75
1.00
2.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.07
0.31
0.88
0.93
1.29
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.87
0.14
0.71
1.12
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.58
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Dainava have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Dainava have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Dainava have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Dainava have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava