Garliava's recent struggles, having lost their last five matches, set the stage for this matchup against Hegelmann II. However, the model disagrees with the market, favouring an away win, which has a 43% probability. The model's selection is the away win, the favourite in this match. The expected total goals are 2.7, with the most likely total being 2 goals.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.5%. Hegelmann II's home form against similar opponents sees them scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 2.12. Garliava's away form against similar opponents sees them scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 1.67.
The model's suggested picks are: the Over 1.5 goals, which is the model's selection, with a 75.6% probability; and the Under 3.5 goals, with a 72.3% probability, where the model has a 12% edge. The home win percentage is 29%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 43%.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Hegelmann II secured a 3-1 victory over Garliava, extending their winning streak. The model's selection, an Away win by Garliava, was incorrect, given the pre-match probability of 43%. The win extends Garliava's run of consecutive defeats to 6 games, with an average of 1.67 goals conceded away from home. The model's call on Over 1.5 goals HIT, with a probability of 75.6%, but Under 3.5 goals MISSED, with a probability of 72.3%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hegelmann II win✓ Hit
29.3%
Avg Implied 17.5% · @ 5.09
Edge
+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.66
Marathonbet
5.45
Unibet
5.30
10Bet
5.20
Dafabet
5.20
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 22.2% · @ 4.03
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Betano
4.15
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
4.10
Garliava win✗ Miss
42.5%
Avg Implied 60.3% · @ 1.48
Edge
-17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Dafabet
1.50
Betano
1.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hegelmann II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.93
1.06
1.94
1.07
1.93
vs Stronger (13)
1.38
1.62
1.43
1.71
1.33
1.50
vs Similar (12)
0.50
1.92
0.29
1.86
0.80
2.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
2.80
2.50
3.00
1.00
2.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Garliava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.93
1.00
2.07
1.27
1.80
vs Stronger (24)
1.21
1.96
1.17
2.17
1.25
1.75
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.83
0.33
1.67
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.6%
@ 1.16-3.8%
Under 1.5
24.4%
@ 4.46+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.60
Superbet
4.25
Unibet
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.6%
@ 1.53-9.5%
Under 2.5
50.4%
@ 2.21+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.65
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.52
Under
Superbet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.32
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.7%
@ 2.31-11.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
@ 1.50+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.45
Unibet
2.43
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.34
Pinnacle
2.31
Under
Superbet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.8%
@ 1.62-1.5%
No
45.2%
@ 2.08+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Superbet
1.63
William Hil
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
No
Superbet
2.15
Betfair
2.15
1xBet
2.13
William Hil
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 7.71+8.1%
0-1
9.1%@ 7.57+3.6%
1-2
9.0%@ 7.20+3.2%
0-0
8.2%@ 13.64+5.2%
0-2
7.6%@ 7.37+1.9%
2-1
7.3%@ 14.29+4.3%
1-0
7.1%@ 16.00+4.5%
2-2
5.3%@ 13.00+2.1%
Hegelmann II goals ↓
Garliava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
9.1%
7.6%
3.7%
1.4%
1
7.1%
13%
9.0%
4.4%
1.6%
2
4.9%
7.3%
5.3%
2.6%
1.0%
3
2.0%
2.9%
2.1%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann II goals (down), columns = Garliava goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Hegelmann II is 0.86 points better than Garliava in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Hegelmann II is 0.98 goals better than Garliava in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 0.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Hegelmann II is 1.07 goals worse than Garliava in terms of goals conceded per game (2.57 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hegelmann II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.07
0.56
1.00
0.36
1.14
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.69
0.86
0.57
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (12)
0.17
1.25
0.00
1.14
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.60
1.50
2.00
0.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Garliava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.40
0.87
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (24)
0.62
0.79
0.42
0.83
0.83
0.75
vs Similar (6)
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hegelmann II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.50
0.94
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.92
0.57
1.14
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.67
0.29
0.71
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Garliava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.10
0.60
1.20
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (24)
0.58
1.17
0.75
1.33
0.42
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
0.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.6%
1.16
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
-
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.3%
1.50
Superbet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
+11.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Garliava have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Garliava have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Garliava have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Garliava have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas