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Hegelmann II vs Minija Result & Analysis

Date: 31/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 0-4
Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Vs
33%
30%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Minija
Minija
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Hegelmann II and Minija are set to face off in the Lithuania 1 Lyga on July 31, 2026. The recent form of these teams is worth noting, as Hegelmann II comes off a win, while Minija is on a 2-game winning run. However, the model's selection is the away win, which is the most likely match result, favored by 38% of the probability. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 14.2% of the time.

Hegelmann II has a similar strength tier at home, scoring 1.14 goals on average and conceding 1.86. Minija, on the other hand, has a similar strength tier away, scoring 1.2 goals on average and conceding 1.2. The model's suggested picks include the Under 3.5, which has a 76.3% probability and a 21% edge, and the Over 1.5, which has a 72% probability. The home win percentage is 33%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 38%.

Results analysis

The win extends Hegelmann II's recent form, but Minija's 2-game winning streak was ultimately the decisive factor. The final score was 0-4, with the actual result being an away win. The model's call was correct, as it predicted Minija to win. The model's selection, Minija's away win, had a pre-match probability of 38%. Minija's selection, Over 1.5, hit with a 72% probability, while Under 3.5, the other selection, missed with a 76.3% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hegelmann II win✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied 4.0% · @ 22.72
Edge
+28.5%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
36.00
Betfair
31.00
Marathonbet
28.00
1xBet
28.00
Dafabet
24.00
Draw✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 11.5% · @ 7.85
Edge
+18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
9.50
Pinnacle
9.28
Marathonbet
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Superbet
8.40
Minija win✓ Hit
37.8%
Avg Implied 84.5% · @ 1.07
Edge
-46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.07

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L02L11D03L31W14L01L00D02L14LH·FA 12/09A·MIN19/09H·ŽAL26/09A·TRA04/10A·BE117/10A·BAB25/10H·NEP31/10A·TAU09/11H·ŽAL21/07A·ATM25/07
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.831.131.801.131.87
vs Stronger (13)1.381.621.431.711.331.50
vs Similar (11)0.551.730.331.500.802.00
vs Weaker (6)1.672.502.503.001.252.25
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MinijaMinija

Last 10 – goals for & against
120-1202L01L10W05L03L120W22D41W21W01LH·FA 04/10H·JON18/10A·ŽAL24/10H·TRA31/10H·BE109/11A·GEL12/04H·SUD28/04A·PEM19/05H·PAN23/06A·ŽAL28/07
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.330.871.602.001.07
vs Stronger (12)1.581.580.861.862.601.20
vs Similar (14)1.431.140.831.671.880.75
vs Weaker (4)1.001.251.000.501.002.00
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.0%
@ 1.13-10.4%
Under 1.5
28.0%
@ 5.30+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Under
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.50
Unibet
4.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.9%
@ 1.42-19.6%
Under 2.5
55.1%
@ 2.57+19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.50
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.60
1xBet
2.56
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.7%
@ 2.04-20.9%
Under 3.5
76.3%
@ 1.64+20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.23
Betfair
2.15
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Under
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.5%
@ 2.75+18.5%
No
48.5%
@ 1.36-18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.85
1xBet
2.83
Marathonbet
2.83
William Hil
2.75
No
Unibet
1.45
Superbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.36
1xBet
1.36

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 16.57+11.6%
0-0
9.7%@ 17.29+7.3%
0-1
9.6%@ 7.07+3.7%
1-0
8.7%@ 49.00+7.8%
1-2
8.3%@ 11.43+4.6%
2-1
7.6%@ 69.29+7.0%
0-2
7.0%@ 4.91-1.5%
2-0
5.9%@ 115.00+5.5%
Hegelmann II goals ↓
Minija goals →
01234
09.7%9.6%7.0%3.0%1.0%
18.7%14%8.3%3.6%1.2%
25.9%7.6%4.9%2.1%0.7%
32.3%3.0%1.9%0.8%0.3%
40.7%0.9%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann II goals (down), columns = Minija goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.60
Minija
2.25
Babrungas
2.17
BFA
2.17
Dainava
1.80
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.67
Tauras
1.60
FA Šiauliai II
1.40
Be1 NFA
1.20
Jonava
1.20
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.00
Atmosfera
1.00
Transinvest 2
0.80
Ekranas
0.67
Garliava
0.00
Hegelmann II is 1.25 points worse than Minija in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Minija
3.00
BFA
2.17
Žalgiris II
2.00
Babrungas
1.83
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.60
Atmosfera
1.40
Dainava
1.40
Tauras
1.40
Transinvest 2
1.40
Hegelmann II
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.17
Be1 NFA
1.00
Jonava
1.00
Ekranas
1.00
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Garliava
0.20
Hegelmann II is 1.67 goals worse than Minija in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 3.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.25
Babrungas
0.50
Žalgiris II
0.60
Dainava
0.80
BFA
0.83
Jonava
1.00
Tauras
1.20
FA Šiauliai II
1.40
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Atmosfera
1.60
Garliava
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.80
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.00
Transinvest 2
2.00
Hegelmann II
2.50
Ekranas
2.67
Hegelmann II is 2.25 goals worse than Minija in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 0.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L01L01L11D13L01L00D01L01LH·FA 12/09A·MIN19/09H·ŽAL26/09A·TRA04/10A·BE117/10A·BAB25/10H·NEP31/10A·TAU09/11H·ŽAL21/07A·ATM25/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.070.601.000.401.13
vs Stronger (13)0.690.690.860.570.500.83
vs Similar (11)0.181.270.001.170.401.40
vs Weaker (6)0.671.501.502.000.251.25
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MinijaMinija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-802L00D10W03L00D80W10W00D10W01LH·FA 04/10H·JON18/10A·ŽAL24/10H·TRA31/10H·BE109/11A·GEL12/04H·SUD28/04A·PEM19/05H·PAN23/06A·ŽAL28/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.570.270.671.130.47
vs Stronger (12)0.500.580.290.570.800.60
vs Similar (14)0.930.640.331.001.380.38
vs Weaker (4)0.500.250.000.001.000.50
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L10W02L20W01L00D00D01L13LH·FA 12/09A·MIN19/09H·ŽAL26/09A·TRA04/10A·BE117/10A·BAB25/10H·NEP31/10A·TAU09/11H·ŽAL21/07A·ATM25/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.530.800.730.73
vs Stronger (13)0.690.920.571.140.830.67
vs Similar (11)0.360.450.330.330.400.60
vs Weaker (6)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MinijaMinija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L00D02L03L40W12L41W11D00DH·FA 04/10H·JON18/10A·ŽAL24/10H·TRA31/10H·BE109/11A·GEL12/04H·SUD28/04A·PEM19/05H·PAN23/06A·ŽAL28/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.770.600.930.870.60
vs Stronger (12)1.081.000.571.291.800.60
vs Similar (14)0.500.500.500.670.500.38
vs Weaker (4)0.501.001.000.500.001.50
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.572.0%1.13
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.12
---10.4%✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (27)
€1m
HI (37)
€0m
MIN (25)
€0m
FŠI (30)
€0m
TAU (21)
€0m
T2 (24)
€0m
DAI (28)
€0m
BFA (27)
€0m
NK (22)
€0m
GAR (25)
€0m
KŽI (29)
€0m
ATM (19)
€0m
EKR (31)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Minija have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
FŠI (0)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
HI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
ŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
FŠI (0)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
HI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
ŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
FŠI (0)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
HI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
ŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
HI wins
0
Draws
3
MIN wins

Head-to-head

Hegelmann II vs Minija · H/A from HI
DateH/AGameScore
19/09/25AMinija Vs HI2-0
18/05/25HHI Vs Minija0-1
20/10/24HHI Vs Minija1-0
01/06/24AMinija Vs HI3-2

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26AAtmosfera Vs HI4-1
21/07/26HHI Vs Žalgiris II0-2
09/11/25ATauras Vs HI0-0
31/10/25HHI Vs Neptūną Klaipėda0-1
25/10/25ABabrungas Vs HI4-1
17/10/25ABe1 NFA Vs HI1-3
04/10/25ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs HI3-0
26/09/25HHI Vs Žalgiris II1-1
19/09/25AMinija Vs HI2-0
12/09/25HHI Vs FA Šiauliai II0-2

MinijaMinija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/07/26AŽalgiris II Vs MIN1-0
23/06/26HMIN Vs Panevėžys2-1
19/05/26APempininkai Gargždai Vs MIN1-4
28/04/26HMIN Vs Suduva Marijampole2-2
12/04/26AGeležinis Vilkas Vs MIN0-12
09/11/25HMIN Vs Be1 NFA0-3
31/10/25HMIN Vs TransINVEST Vilnius0-5
24/10/25AŽalgiris II Vs MIN0-1
18/10/25HMIN Vs Jonava0-1
04/10/25HMIN Vs FA Šiauliai II0-2

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.06
HomeLLDLL1.44
AwayLWLDL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%44%16%
AVG goals2.922.803.04
Over 1.5 %82%72%92%
Over 2.5 %52%48%56%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.121.280.96
Conceded1.801.522.08
BTTS46%44%48%
Clean Sheet20%28%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Minija
Minija
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.20
HomeLLLDW0.96
AwayWWWWL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%25%42%
AVG goals2.662.332.96
Over 1.5 %66%67%65%
Over 2.5 %48%42%54%
Over 3.5 %28%25%31%
Scored1.200.751.62
Conceded1.461.581.35
BTTS38%33%42%
Clean Sheet26%25%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BFABFA613
67%
2.2
135+8
3.0
67%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.8
-
2BabrungasBabrungas613
67%
2.2
113+8
2.3
83%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.5
-
3Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II513
80%
2.6
103+7
2.6
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.6
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda610
50%
1.7
79-2
2.7
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
5MinijaMinija49
75%
2.2
121+11
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.2
-
6DainavaDainava59
40%
1.8
74+3
2.2
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.40.8
-
7TaurasTauras58
40%
1.6
76+1
2.6
80%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
8FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II57
40%
1.4
57-2
2.4
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
9JonavaJonava56
40%
1.2
55+0
2.0
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II56
40%
1.2
810-2
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.0
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA56
40%
1.2
59-4
2.8
100%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II66
33%
1.0
815-7
3.8
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.5
-
13AtmosferaAtmosfera55
20%
1.0
78-1
3.0
100%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
14Transinvest 2Transinvest 254
20%
0.8
710-3
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
15EkranasEkranas64
17%
0.7
616-10
3.7
100%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
16GarliavaGarliava50
0%
0.0
18-7
1.8
40%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.6
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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