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Hegelmann II vs Neptūną Klaipėda Result & Analysis

Date: 03/11/2024
Time: 16:30
Final 2-1
Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Vs
29%
26%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hegelmann II win✓ Hit
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda win✗ Miss
45.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-433D20W12L20W40W23L02L02L10W12LH·TAU17/08H·BAN25/08A·ATM31/08A·KAU16/09H·FA 23/09A·BFA28/09H·EKR04/10A·GAR11/10H·MIN20/10A·BAB26/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.251.931.361.501.142.36
vs Stronger (11)0.912.271.002.500.802.00
vs Similar (9)1.891.782.250.001.603.20
vs Weaker (8)1.001.621.001.501.001.75
Clean sheet %29% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D21W50W20W11D03L10W01L41W23LA·KAU18/08H·FA 23/08A·BFA30/08A·GAR14/09H·MIN20/09A·BAB28/09A·TAU05/10H·NEV11/10H·BE118/10H·FK 25/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.302.071.332.201.27
vs Stronger (9)1.222.001.401.801.002.25
vs Similar (13)2.851.002.671.333.000.71
vs Weaker (8)2.001.002.000.752.001.25
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.6%
Under 2.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.2%
Under 3.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.3%
No
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
1-2
9.3%
2-1 ✓
7.2%
0-1
7.1%
0-2
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
1-3
5.3%
Hegelmann II goals ↓
Neptūną Klaipėda goals →
01234
05.9%7.1%7.0%4.0%1.7%
15.2%12%9.3%5.3%2.3%
24.2%7.2%6.2%3.5%1.5%
31.8%3.2%2.7%1.6%0.7%
40.6%1.0%0.9%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann II goals (down), columns = Neptūną Klaipėda goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Trakai
2.47
Be1 NFA
2.10
Babrungas
1.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.90
Tauras
1.57
Nevėžis
1.57
Atmosfera
1.47
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.23
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.13
Panevėžys II
1.13
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Minija
1.03
Garliava
0.77
Banga II
0.40
Hegelmann II is 0.77 points worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.90).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Trakai
2.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.13
Be1 NFA
1.90
Babrungas
1.87
Tauras
1.83
FA Šiauliai II
1.77
BFA
1.50
Nevėžis
1.47
Ekranas
1.40
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.30
Hegelmann II
1.23
Panevėžys II
1.23
Atmosfera
1.20
Garliava
0.97
Minija
0.93
Banga II
0.60
Hegelmann II is 0.90 goals worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 2.13).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Trakai
0.63
Be1 NFA
0.87
Babrungas
0.93
Tauras
1.03
Nevėžis
1.07
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.27
Atmosfera
1.30
Minija
1.33
Ekranas
1.60
BFA
1.60
Garliava
1.70
Panevėžys II
1.77
Hegelmann II
1.97
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.03
Banga II
2.27
FA Šiauliai II
2.30
Hegelmann II is 0.70 goals worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.27).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W12L00D10W01L01L00D10W01LH·TAU17/08H·BAN25/08A·ATM31/08A·KAU16/09H·FA 23/09A·BFA28/09H·EKR04/10A·GAR11/10H·MIN20/10A·BAB26/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.860.640.640.361.07
vs Stronger (11)0.271.090.331.170.201.00
vs Similar (9)0.780.781.000.000.601.40
vs Weaker (8)0.500.620.750.500.250.75
Clean sheet %39% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W00D10W11D00D00D00D21W01LA·KAU18/08H·FA 23/08A·BFA30/08A·GAR14/09H·MIN20/09A·BAB28/09A·TAU05/10H·NEV11/10H·BE118/10H·FK 25/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.671.070.640.810.69
vs Stronger (8)0.620.750.500.750.750.75
vs Similar (13)1.080.381.330.670.860.14
vs Weaker (9)1.001.001.250.500.801.40
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W10W00D20W30W22D01L02L00D11DH·TAU17/08H·BAN25/08A·ATM31/08A·KAU16/09H·FA 23/09A·BFA28/09H·EKR04/10A·GAR11/10H·MIN20/10A·BAB26/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.751.070.710.860.791.29
vs Stronger (11)0.641.180.671.330.601.00
vs Similar (9)1.111.001.250.001.001.80
vs Weaker (8)0.501.000.251.000.751.00
Clean sheet %39% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W11D50W10W00D03L10W01L20W22DA·KAU18/08H·FA 23/08A·BFA30/08A·GAR14/09H·MIN20/09A·BAB28/09A·TAU05/10H·NEV11/10H·BE118/10H·FK 25/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.701.070.571.310.81
vs Stronger (8)0.621.121.000.750.251.50
vs Similar (13)1.770.621.330.672.140.57
vs Weaker (9)0.890.440.750.251.000.60
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
HI wins
0
Draws
1
NK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hegelmann II vs Neptūną Klaipėda · H/A from HI
DateH/AGameScore
14/06/24ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs HI5-0

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/24ABabrungas Vs HI2-1
20/10/24HHI Vs Minija1-0
11/10/24AGarliava Vs HI2-0
04/10/24HHI Vs Ekranas0-2
28/09/24ABFA Vs HI3-2
23/09/24HHI Vs FA Šiauliai II4-0
16/09/24AKauno Žalgiris II Vs HI0-2
31/08/24AAtmosfera Vs HI2-1
25/08/24HHI Vs Banga II2-0
17/08/24HHI Vs Tauras3-3

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/24HNK Vs FK Trakai2-3
18/10/24HNK Vs Be1 NFA4-1
11/10/24HNK Vs Nevėžis0-1
05/10/24ATauras Vs NK0-1
28/09/24ABabrungas Vs NK3-0
20/09/24HNK Vs Minija1-1
14/09/24AGarliava Vs NK0-2
30/08/24ABFA Vs NK0-5
23/08/24HNK Vs FA Šiauliai II2-1
18/08/24AKauno Žalgiris II Vs NK2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.11
HomeDWWLW1.64
AwayLWLLL0.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%50%14%
AVG goals3.182.863.50
Over 1.5 %89%79%100%
Over 2.5 %61%50%71%
Over 3.5 %43%36%50%
Scored1.251.361.14
Conceded1.931.502.36
BTTS43%21%64%
Clean Sheet29%50%7%
Corners---
Cards---
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.82
HomeWDLWL1.96
AwayDWWLW1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%58%46%
AVG goals3.263.083.46
Over 1.5 %80%77%83%
Over 2.5 %62%62%62%
Over 3.5 %46%42%50%
Scored2.042.082.00
Conceded1.221.001.46
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet36%38%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK TrakaiFK Trakai3074
80%
2.5
7019+51
3.0
73%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.6
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA3063
63%
2.1
5726+31
2.8
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3057
53%
1.9
5628+28
2.8
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3057
57%
1.9
6438+26
3.4
80%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.3
-
5TaurasTauras3047
43%
1.6
5531+24
2.9
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
6NevėžisNevėžis3047
43%
1.6
4432+12
2.5
70%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
7AtmosferaAtmosfera3044
43%
1.5
3639-3
2.5
70%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
8EkranasEkranas3039
33%
1.3
4248-6
3.0
80%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
9BFABFA3037
30%
1.2
4548-3
3.1
83%
53%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
10Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3035
33%
1.2
3961-22
3.3
97%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
11Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3034
30%
1.1
3753-16
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3034
33%
1.1
3759-22
3.2
90%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
13FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3032
33%
1.1
5369-16
4.1
87%
77%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
14MinijaMinija3031
20%
1.0
2840-12
2.3
67%
37%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
15GarliavaGarliava3023
17%
0.8
2951-22
2.7
67%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
16Banga IIBanga II3012
7%
0.4
1868-50
2.9
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.3
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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