Hegelmann Litauen are tipped to win at home, the model’s favourite result. The game is expected to see about 2.4 goals, with the most likely total being two. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is a 1-1 draw, with a 13.9% chance. Hegelmann’s home form against weaker opposition shows they average 0.75 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded, while Džiugas Telšių, playing away against stronger teams, average 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Home win probability sits at 46%, draw at 29% and away win at 25%. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 77.7% and Over 1.5 goals at 70.5%. The match is poised to be a tight contest, with Hegelmann’s recent draw against Džiugas and Džiugas’s own draw against Hegelmann hinting at a balanced battle.
Results analysis
Hegelmann Litauen extended their recent run, coming off a draw, to secure a 4-1 home win over Džiugas Telšiai. The model had picked a home win with a 46% probability, and that call proved correct. The predicted total of 2.4 goals was far below the actual tally of five, a clear outburst from the home side. The model’s favourite was indeed the home team; the other selections were Under 3.5 at 77.7% which missed, and Over 1.5 at 70.5% which hit. The match finished with a decisive home victory, confirming the model’s prediction.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hegelmann Litauen win✓ Hit
46.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai win✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hegelmann Litauen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.00
1.62
1.08
1.41
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.68
1.18
2.00
1.44
1.46
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.25
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Džiugas Telšiai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.07
0.75
1.06
1.29
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.25
0.71
1.29
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.00
0.78
0.89
1.62
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.5%
Under 1.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.2%
Under 2.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.7%
No
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
11.6%
0-0
10.3%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
4.4%
Hegelmann Litauen goals ↓
Džiugas Telšiai goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.6%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
6.2%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.0%
4.4%
1.4%
0.4%
3
4.4%
4.3%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann Litauen goals (down), columns = Džiugas Telšiai goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Dainava
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.58 points better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.53 goals better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Banga
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.06 goals better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hegelmann Litauen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.30
0.77
0.38
0.53
0.24
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.36
1.00
0.56
0.54
0.23
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.12
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Džiugas Telšiai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.31
0.69
0.64
0.36
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.67
0.29
0.71
0.60
0.60
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.47
0.33
0.67
0.62
0.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hegelmann Litauen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.85
0.69
0.88
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.82
1.00
0.89
0.92
0.77
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.38
0.50
0.25
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Džiugas Telšiai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.44
0.38
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.58
0.43
0.57
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.53
0.44
0.22
1.00
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kauno Žalgiris
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Suduva Marijampole
Šiauliai
Panevėžys
Banga
FK Trakai
Dainava
Neptūną Klaipėda