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Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Trakai Result & Analysis

Date: 29/03/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Vs
51%
27%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Trakai
FK Trakai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hegelmann Litauen win✓ Hit
50.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai win✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W23L12L21W41W11D02L21W10WA·BAN29/09H·DŽI06/10A·TRA19/10H·DAI25/10H·SUD02/11H·TRA06/11A·BAN09/11A·BAN01/03H·PAN09/03H·ŠIA15/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.031.920.921.651.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.761.292.001.001.501.62
vs Weaker (13)1.770.691.750.751.780.67
Clean sheet %40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W51W30W32W10W30W01L34L33D00DA·EKR28/09H·GAR05/10H·BAB19/10A·NEP25/10A·MIN29/10H·NEV02/11A·BE108/11H·SUD01/03H·FK 07/03H·KAU16/03← 1 LygaA Lyga →
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.270.802.651.001.770.54
vs Stronger (2)1.501.501.501.50--
vs Similar (9)2.001.222.801.601.000.75
vs Weaker (19)2.470.532.800.602.110.44
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-0
10.3%
2-1 ✓
9.6%
2-0
9.4%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
5.9%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
5.3%
Hegelmann Litauen goals ↓
FK Trakai goals →
01234
08.2%5.9%3.6%1.2%0.3%
110%13%5.9%2.0%0.5%
29.4%9.6%4.9%1.7%0.4%
35.2%5.3%2.7%0.9%0.2%
42.1%2.2%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann Litauen goals (down), columns = FK Trakai goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Dainava
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen is 1.07 points better than FK Trakai in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 0.79).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.53 goals better than FK Trakai in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Banga
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.78 goals better than FK Trakai in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D02L10W21W20W00D01L10W00DA·BAN29/09H·DŽI06/10A·TRA19/10H·DAI25/10H·SUD02/11H·TRA06/11A·BAN09/11A·BAN01/03H·PAN09/03H·ŠIA15/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.470.850.380.470.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.710.761.000.560.381.00
vs Weaker (13)0.540.080.500.000.560.11
Clean sheet %70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D41W20W10W00D10W00D22D13L00DA·EKR28/09H·GAR05/10H·BAB19/10A·NEP25/10A·MIN29/10H·NEV02/11A·BE108/11H·SUD01/03H·FK 07/03H·KAU16/03← 1 LygaA Lyga →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.371.410.410.920.31
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.501.50--
vs Similar (9)1.220.441.600.400.750.50
vs Weaker (19)1.260.211.500.201.000.22
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W21W02L00D21W11D01L11D10WA·BAN29/09H·DŽI06/10A·TRA19/10H·DAI25/10H·SUD02/11H·TRA06/11A·BAN09/11A·BAN01/03H·PAN09/03H·ŠIA15/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.571.080.541.180.59
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.060.531.000.441.120.62
vs Weaker (13)1.230.621.250.751.220.56
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W10W22D10W20W01L12L20W00DA·EKR28/09H·GAR05/10H·BAB19/10A·NEP25/10A·MIN29/10H·NEV02/11A·BE108/11H·SUD01/03H·FK 07/03H·KAU16/03← 1 LygaA Lyga →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.471.240.590.690.31
vs Stronger (2)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (9)0.780.781.201.200.250.25
vs Weaker (19)1.110.371.300.400.890.33
Clean sheet %70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
HL wins
3
Draws
1
FT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Trakai · H/A from HL
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23AFK Trakai Vs HL2-3
30/07/23HHL Vs FK Trakai1-0
27/05/23AFK Trakai Vs HL0-4
09/04/23HHL Vs FK Trakai0-1
23/11/22HHL Vs FK Trakai2-2
11/09/22AFK Trakai Vs HL0-0
25/06/22AFK Trakai Vs HL0-3
16/04/22HHL Vs FK Trakai1-1

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/25HHL Vs Šiauliai1-0
09/03/25HHL Vs Panevėžys2-1
01/03/25ABanga Vs HL2-0
09/11/24ABanga Vs HL1-1
06/11/24HHL Vs TransINVEST Vilnius4-1
02/11/24HHL Vs Suduva Marijampole2-1
25/10/24HHL Vs Dainava1-2
19/10/24ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs HL3-2
06/10/24HHL Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-0
29/09/24ABanga Vs HL0-0

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/25HFT Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-0
07/03/25HFT Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius3-3
01/03/25HFT Vs Suduva Marijampole3-4
08/11/24ABe1 NFA Vs FT1-0
02/11/24HFT Vs Nevėžis3-0
29/10/24AMinija Vs FT0-1
25/10/24ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs FT2-3
19/10/24HFT Vs Babrungas3-0
05/10/24HFT Vs Garliava5-1
28/09/24AEkranas Vs FT0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW1.92
HomeLWWWW1.87
AwayWDLDL1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%52%59%
AVG goals2.762.652.85
Over 1.5 %72%65%78%
Over 2.5 %52%57%48%
Over 3.5 %36%35%37%
Scored1.641.651.63
Conceded1.121.001.22
BTTS54%57%52%
Clean Sheet38%35%41%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Trakai
FK Trakai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDD1.82
HomeWWLDD1.50
AwayWWWWL2.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%43%73%
AVG goals3.143.542.64
Over 1.5 %72%82%59%
Over 2.5 %62%68%55%
Over 3.5 %40%43%36%
Scored1.982.071.86
Conceded1.161.460.77
BTTS46%50%41%
Clean Sheet40%36%45%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3675
61%
2.1
6726+41
2.6
69%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.90.7
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
58%
1.9
5643+13
2.8
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3662
47%
1.7
5441+13
2.6
81%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.51.1
-
4Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.0
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3652
39%
1.4
5953+6
3.1
81%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.61.5
-
6PanevėžysPanevėžys3649
39%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
81%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.4
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3646
36%
1.3
3745-8
2.3
64%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.01.2
-
8BangaBanga3642
31%
1.2
3836+2
2.1
58%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.11.0
-
9FK TrakaiFK Trakai3830
18%
0.8
3975-36
3.0
82%
58%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10DainavaDainava3618
8%
0.5
2776-49
2.9
89%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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