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Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Result & Analysis

Date: 27/07/2026
Time: 15:45
Final 2-3
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Vs
37%
27%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Hegelmann Litauen a 37% win probability against FK Zalgiris Vilnius in the Lithuania: A Lyga on 2026-07-27, with 27% for the draw and 36% for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (80%).

Results analysis

Hegelmann Litauen finished 2-3 against FK Zalgiris Vilnius (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 37% home win, 27% draw and 36% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (80%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hegelmann Litauen win✗ Miss
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win✓ Hit
36.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D00D02L41W20W13L21W11D15L20WH·KAU01/10H·BAN05/10A·FK 18/10H·DŽI23/10A·DAI27/10A·FK 02/11H·SUD08/11A·PAN04/07A·SUD20/07A·ŠIA24/07
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.171.711.071.251.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.091.361.401.600.831.17
vs Weaker (19)1.681.051.890.781.501.30
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W31W21W11D21W10W31W13L30W31WA·FK 19/09A·SUD29/09A·DŽI05/10A·DAI18/10A·KAU22/10H·ŠIA26/10H·HEG02/11A·PAN08/11A·ŠIA05/07H·TRA19/07
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.971.330.601.801.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.301.201.500.831.001.75
vs Weaker (20)1.700.851.220.442.091.18
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.9%
Under 1.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.7%
Under 2.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.4%
Under 3.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
6.8%
0-1
6.7%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
6.1%
2-0
5.8%
Hegelmann Litauen goals ↓
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals →
01234
06.6%6.7%5.7%2.7%1.0%
16.8%13%8.3%4.0%1.5%
25.8%8.4%6.1%3.0%1.1%
32.9%4.1%3.0%1.4%0.5%
41.0%1.5%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann Litauen goals (down), columns = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.50
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.25
Banga
1.80
Džiugas Telšiai
1.40
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.14
Panevėžys
1.00
Hegelmann Litauen
0.67
Šiauliai
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen is 1.58 points worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 2.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.75
Suduva Marijampole
2.50
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
Banga
1.80
Džiugas Telšiai
1.20
Hegelmann Litauen
1.17
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.86
Šiauliai
0.83
Panevėžys
0.80
Hegelmann Litauen is 1.58 goals worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 2.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Suduva Marijampole
0.25
Kauno Žalgiris
0.25
Panevėžys
1.20
Džiugas Telšiai
1.40
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.43
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Banga
1.60
Hegelmann Litauen
2.17
Šiauliai
2.67
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.67 goals worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D20W10W12L00D00D03L20WH·KAU01/10H·BAN05/10A·FK 18/10H·DŽI23/10A·DAI27/10A·FK 02/11H·SUD08/11A·PAN04/07A·SUD20/07A·ŠIA24/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.470.790.360.620.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.730.451.200.600.330.33
vs Weaker (19)0.680.470.560.220.800.70
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W11D00D00D10W21W12L00D20WA·FK 19/09A·SUD29/09A·DŽI05/10A·DAI18/10A·KAU22/10H·ŠIA26/10H·HEG02/11A·PAN08/11A·ŠIA05/07H·TRA19/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.630.600.330.730.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.400.900.670.500.001.50
vs Weaker (20)0.800.500.560.221.000.73
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (25)
€9m
FZV (23)
€6m
PAN (21)
€5m
HL (18)
€4m
BAN (20)
€2m
Hegelmann Litauen's squad is €2m less valuable than FK Zalgiris Vilnius's (€4m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
FZV (8)
€2m
PAN (7)
€2m
HL (5)
€1m
BAN (4)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
HL (6)
€1m
PAN (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
Hegelmann Litauen and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (10)
€4m
FZV (9)
€3m
PAN (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (11)
€1m
Hegelmann Litauen and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
HL wins
3
Draws
1
FZV wins

Head-to-head

Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · H/A from HL
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs HL3-1
24/08/25HHL Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-2
24/06/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs HL0-1
20/04/25HHL Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-1
14/09/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs HL1-1
30/06/24HHL Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius3-1
12/05/24HHL Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-0
17/03/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs HL1-3

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/07/26AŠiauliai Vs HL0-2
20/07/26ASuduva Marijampole Vs HL5-1
04/07/26APanevėžys Vs HL1-1
08/11/25HHL Vs Suduva Marijampole2-1
02/11/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs HL3-1
27/10/25ADainava Vs HL0-2
23/10/25HHL Vs Džiugas Telšiai4-1
18/10/25AFK Trakai Vs HL2-0
05/10/25HHL Vs Banga0-0
01/10/25HHL Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-1

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/26HFZV Vs TransINVEST Vilnius3-1
05/07/26AŠiauliai Vs FZV0-3
08/11/25APanevėžys Vs FZV3-1
02/11/25HFZV Vs Hegelmann Litauen3-1
26/10/25HFZV Vs Šiauliai1-0
22/10/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs FZV1-2
18/10/25ADainava Vs FZV1-1
05/10/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs FZV1-2
29/09/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs FZV1-3
19/09/25AFK Trakai Vs FZV0-2

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLW1.66
HomeDDDWW2.04
AwayWLDLW1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%62%38%
AVG goals2.822.922.73
Over 1.5 %78%79%77%
Over 2.5 %54%62%46%
Over 3.5 %30%29%31%
Scored1.501.831.19
Conceded1.321.081.54
BTTS54%62%46%
Clean Sheet30%25%35%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.80
HomeDWWWW2.04
AwayWDWLW1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%60%44%
AVG goals2.762.523.00
Over 1.5 %80%72%88%
Over 2.5 %52%48%56%
Over 3.5 %32%28%36%
Scored1.681.721.64
Conceded1.080.801.36
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet34%44%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris410
75%
2.5
101+9
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4242.50.2
-
2Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole410
75%
2.5
101+9
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.50.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius49
75%
2.2
116+5
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2232.81.5
-
4BangaBanga59
60%
1.8
98+1
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.81.6
-
5TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius78
29%
1.1
610-4
2.3
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
6Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
7PanevėžysPanevėžys55
20%
1.0
46-2
2.0
80%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.81.2
-
8Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen64
17%
0.7
713-6
3.3
100%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.22.2
-
9ŠiauliaiŠiauliai63
17%
0.5
516-11
3.5
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.7
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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