The model favours an away win for Kauno Žalgiris, with a 42% chance, followed by a draw at 30% and a home win at 28%. The expected total goals hover at 2.4, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.1% probability. Hegelmann Litauen, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 1.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded, while Kauno Žalgiris, on the road, averages 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Under 5.5 (96.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.7%), Under 4.5 (90.2%) and Away +2 handicap (88.7%). Both sides entered the match after draws, each 1-1 against Banga, signalling a cautious start.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hegelmann Litauen win
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris win
41.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hegelmann Litauen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.83
1.17
1.11
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.55
2.12
1.38
0.75
1.67
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
0.70
1.25
0.75
1.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.87
2.07
0.80
1.13
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.71
0.79
2.22
0.78
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
0.42
2.25
0.75
1.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.6%
Under 1.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.2%
Under 2.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-1
10.7%
0-0
10.3%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.4%
0-2
8.0%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
5.2%
Hegelmann Litauen goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
11%
8.0%
3.5%
1.2%
1
8.4%
14%
8.6%
3.8%
1.3%
2
5.2%
6.9%
4.6%
2.1%
0.7%
3
1.9%
2.5%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann Litauen goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Hegelmann Litauen is 1.45 points worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 2.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.75 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Hegelmann Litauen is 1.80 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hegelmann Litauen or Draw
58.7%
Avg Implied -
29%
30%
41%
covers Hegelmann Litauen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen or Kauno Žalgiris
70.1%
Avg Implied -
29%
30%
41%
covers Hegelmann Litauen + Kauno Žalgiris
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris
71.2%
Avg Implied -
29%
30%
41%
covers Draw + Kauno Žalgiris
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5
Over
65.9%
Under
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5
Over
29.2%
Under
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hegelmann Litauen, so a minus line means Hegelmann Litauen give that many goals of a start and Kauno Žalgiris receive them. At -1, Hegelmann Litauen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hegelmann Litauen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hegelmann Litauen)
Hegelmann Litauen -2
3.5%
Draw -2
8.2%
Kauno Žalgiris +2
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hegelmann Litauen)
Hegelmann Litauen -1
11.6%
Draw -1
17.2%
Kauno Žalgiris +1
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hegelmann Litauen)
Hegelmann Litauen +1
58.7%
Draw +1
21.6%
Kauno Žalgiris -1
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hegelmann Litauen)
Hegelmann Litauen +2
80.4%
Draw +2
12.6%
Kauno Žalgiris -2
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hegelmann Litauen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.92
0.33
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.55
1.12
0.38
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.27
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.21
1.00
0.11
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.08
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hegelmann Litauen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.92
0.83
0.56
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.42
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
1.13
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
1.22
0.67
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Hegelmann Litauen's squad is €4m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€6m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Hegelmann Litauen's attack is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Hegelmann Litauen and Kauno Žalgiris have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Hegelmann Litauen's defence is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Šiauliai
FK Trakai