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Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys Result & Analysis

Date: 04/04/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 2-4
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Vs
38%
30%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hegelmann Litauen win✗ Miss
38.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win✓ Hit
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D12L13L20W22D30W02L13L20W50WA·KAU09/10A·FK 23/10A·PAN30/10H·SUD13/11H·FK 23/11H·DAI04/03A·SUD11/03A·ŠIA14/03H·DŽI18/03A·BAN31/03
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.972.620.851.061.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.111.421.571.570.831.33
vs Weaker (11)2.820.183.830.001.600.40
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W00D10W12L21W40W40W20W21W31WH·HEG30/10A·KAU05/11A·FK 09/11A·FK 13/11H·JON23/11A·BAN05/03A·FK 12/03A·SUD15/03H·KAU19/03H·ŠIA01/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.031.501.141.500.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.361.081.331.081.381.08
vs Weaker (5)2.200.802.501.502.000.33
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.6%
Under 1.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.4%
Under 2.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.2%
Under 3.5
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
9.9%
1-0
9.8%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.2%
0-2
5.8%
Hegelmann Litauen goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
01234
09.9%8.7%5.8%2.2%0.7%
19.8%14%7.5%2.9%0.8%
27.2%8.3%4.8%1.9%0.5%
33.1%3.6%2.1%0.8%0.2%
41.0%1.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann Litauen goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Panevėžys
2.42
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.64
Šiauliai
1.64
Kauno Žalgiris
1.64
Banga
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
0.97
Dainava
0.86
Džiugas Telšiai
0.84
FK Trakai
0.69
Be1 NFA
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.78 points worse than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 2.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.86
Panevėžys
1.78
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.69
Šiauliai
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
0.78
Džiugas Telšiai
0.74
FK Trakai
0.72
Dainava
0.69
Banga
0.61
Be1 NFA
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.06 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (1.72 vs 1.78).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.78
Be1 NFA
1.00
Šiauliai
1.00
Dainava
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Banga
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.45
Suduva Marijampole
1.67
FK Trakai
1.72
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.81 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 0.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D12L20W00D10W01L01L10W30WA·KAU09/10A·FK 23/10A·PAN30/10H·SUD13/11H·FK 23/11H·DAI04/03A·SUD11/03A·ŠIA14/03H·DŽI18/03A·BAN31/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.401.150.310.650.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.580.630.710.570.500.67
vs Weaker (11)1.360.001.670.001.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D10W11D21W20W20W10W01L00DH·HEG30/10A·KAU05/11A·FK 09/11A·FK 13/11H·JON23/11A·BAN05/03A·FK 12/03A·SUD15/03H·KAU19/03H·ŠIA01/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.530.710.570.940.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.680.560.500.580.850.54
vs Weaker (5)1.600.402.000.501.330.33
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L00D22D20W01L12L10W20WA·KAU09/10A·FK 23/10A·PAN30/10H·SUD13/11H·FK 23/11H·DAI04/03A·SUD11/03A·ŠIA14/03H·DŽI18/03A·BAN31/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.571.460.540.410.59
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.530.790.861.000.330.67
vs Weaker (11)1.450.182.170.000.600.40
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D01L00D20W20W10W20W31WH·HEG30/10A·KAU05/11A·FK 09/11A·FK 13/11H·JON23/11A·BAN05/03A·FK 12/03A·SUD15/03H·KAU19/03H·ŠIA01/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.500.790.570.560.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.680.520.830.500.540.54
vs Weaker (5)0.600.400.501.000.670.00
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.8%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.571.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
HL wins
2
Draws
2
PAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys · H/A from HL
DateH/AGameScore
30/10/22APanevėžys Vs HL3-1
02/09/22HHL Vs Panevėžys1-1
03/05/22APanevėžys Vs HL1-1
15/03/22HHL Vs Panevėžys0-1

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/03/23ABanga Vs HL0-5
18/03/23HHL Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-0
14/03/23AŠiauliai Vs HL3-1
11/03/23ASuduva Marijampole Vs HL2-0
04/03/23HHL Vs Dainava3-0
23/11/22HHL Vs FK Trakai2-2
13/11/22HHL Vs Suduva Marijampole2-0
30/10/22APanevėžys Vs HL3-1
23/10/22AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs HL2-1
09/10/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs HL1-1

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/23HPAN Vs Šiauliai3-1
19/03/23HPAN Vs Kauno Žalgiris2-1
15/03/23ASuduva Marijampole Vs PAN0-2
12/03/23AFK Trakai Vs PAN0-4
05/03/23ABanga Vs PAN0-4
23/11/22HPAN Vs Jonava2-1
13/11/22AFK Trakai Vs PAN2-1
09/11/22AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs PAN0-1
05/11/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs PAN0-0
30/10/22HPAN Vs Hegelmann Litauen3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWW1.71
HomeWWDWW2.10
AwayLLLLW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%60%33%
AVG goals2.683.102.29
Over 1.5 %78%90%67%
Over 2.5 %49%55%43%
Over 3.5 %32%40%24%
Scored1.782.301.29
Conceded0.900.801.00
BTTS49%45%52%
Clean Sheet44%50%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.81
HomeLWWWW2.10
AwayWLWWW1.55
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %53%67%41%
AVG goals2.332.522.14
Over 1.5 %70%76%64%
Over 2.5 %49%57%41%
Over 3.5 %19%19%18%
Scored1.511.671.36
Conceded0.810.860.77
BTTS44%52%36%
Clean Sheet44%33%55%
Corners9.504.0015.00
Cards3.00-3.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PanevėžysPanevėžys3687
72%
2.4
6414+50
2.2
67%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.80.4
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3675
64%
2.1
6728+39
2.6
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.90.8
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3659
42%
1.6
6140+21
2.8
78%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.71.1
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3659
50%
1.6
6243+19
2.9
72%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.2
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
69%
36%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.31.0
-
6BangaBanga3636
28%
1.0
2252-30
2.1
58%
31%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.61.4
-
7Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3635
28%
1.0
2860-32
2.4
72%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.81.7
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3832
16%
0.8
2855-27
2.2
68%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.71.4
-
9DainavaDainava3631
19%
0.9
2540-15
1.8
56%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai3625
14%
0.7
2662-36
2.4
64%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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