PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys Result & Analysis

Date: 22/09/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 2-2
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Vs
45%
27%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hegelmann Litauen win✗ Miss
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W20W10W40W10W30W11D13L11D21WA·BAN12/07A·DŽI19/07A·DAI03/08A·ATM06/08A·SUD10/08H·BAN16/08H·KAU24/08A·ŠIA01/09A·FK 14/09A·DŽI18/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.901.641.001.790.84
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.561.111.571.001.551.18
vs Weaker (12)2.000.581.751.002.120.38
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-333D13L12L00D03L03L11D00D00D32WA·DŽI27/07A·JAG31/07H·MAC06/08H·FK 11/08A·MAC15/08H·THE22/08A·DAI25/08A·THE29/08H·SUD01/09A·BAN15/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.400.751.121.071.71
vs Stronger (4)0.503.000.503.000.503.00
vs Similar (22)0.861.180.690.921.111.56
vs Weaker (4)1.501.002.000.001.331.33
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.2%
No
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.8%
2-0
7.9%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
7.0%
0-1
6.3%
2-2 ✓
5.5%
Hegelmann Litauen goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
01234
07.5%6.3%4.4%1.8%0.5%
18.8%13%7.0%2.8%0.8%
27.9%9.3%5.5%2.2%0.6%
34.1%4.9%2.9%1.1%0.3%
41.6%1.9%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann Litauen goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.19
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris
1.50
Dainava
1.25
Banga
1.19
Šiauliai
1.17
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
1.14
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.06
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.72 points better than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.67
Kauno Žalgiris
1.19
Šiauliai
1.08
Banga
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.97
Dainava
0.94
Panevėžys
0.94
Džiugas Telšiai
0.92
Suduva Marijampole
0.89
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.72 goals better than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.86
Be1 NFA
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.08
Dainava
1.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Panevėžys
1.11
Banga
1.28
Džiugas Telšiai
1.33
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.39
Šiauliai
1.39
Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D20W10W10W11D03L10W10WA·BAN12/07A·DŽI19/07A·DAI03/08A·ATM06/08A·SUD10/08H·BAN16/08H·KAU24/08A·ŠIA01/09A·FK 14/09A·DŽI18/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.470.640.640.530.37
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.500.720.710.860.360.64
vs Weaker (12)0.670.080.500.250.750.00
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L02L00D01L00D11D00D00D21WA·DŽI27/07A·JAG31/07H·MAC06/08H·FK 11/08A·MAC15/08H·THE22/08A·DAI25/08A·THE29/08H·SUD01/09A·BAN15/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.570.380.440.570.71
vs Stronger (4)0.001.750.002.500.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.410.360.310.150.560.67
vs Weaker (4)1.250.502.000.001.000.67
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W20W10W20W00D20W00D10W01L11DA·BAN12/07A·DŽI19/07A·DAI03/08A·ATM06/08A·SUD10/08H·BAN16/08H·KAU24/08A·ŠIA01/09A·FK 14/09A·DŽI18/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.431.000.361.260.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.060.390.860.141.180.55
vs Weaker (12)1.330.501.250.751.380.38
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L12L10W00D02L03L00D00D00D11DA·DŽI27/07A·JAG31/07H·MAC06/08H·FK 11/08A·MAC15/08H·THE22/08A·DAI25/08A·THE29/08H·SUD01/09A·BAN15/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.830.380.690.501.00
vs Stronger (4)0.501.250.500.500.502.00
vs Similar (22)0.450.820.380.770.560.89
vs Weaker (4)0.250.500.000.000.330.67
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
HL wins
2
Draws
3
PAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys · H/A from HL
DateH/AGameScore
04/07/24APanevėžys Vs HL0-1
18/05/24APanevėžys Vs HL0-2
30/03/24HHL Vs Panevėžys4-2
21/10/23HHL Vs Panevėžys0-0
07/08/23APanevėžys Vs HL2-2
03/06/23APanevėžys Vs HL1-0
04/04/23HHL Vs Panevėžys2-4
30/10/22APanevėžys Vs HL3-1

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/09/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs HL1-2
14/09/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs HL1-1
01/09/24AŠiauliai Vs HL3-1
24/08/24HHL Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-1
16/08/24HHL Vs Banga3-0
10/08/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs HL0-1
06/08/24AAtmosfera Vs HL0-4
03/08/24ADainava Vs HL0-1
19/07/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs HL0-2
12/07/24ABanga Vs HL2-4

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/09/24ABanga Vs PAN2-3
01/09/24HPAN Vs Suduva Marijampole0-0
29/08/24AThe New Saints Vs PAN0-0
25/08/24ADainava Vs PAN1-1
22/08/24HPAN Vs The New Saints0-3
15/08/24AMaccabi Tel Aviv Vs PAN3-0
11/08/24HPAN Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-0
06/08/24HPAN Vs Maccabi Tel Aviv1-2
31/07/24AJagiellonia Vs PAN3-1
27/07/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs PAN3-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDW1.94
HomeWDWWD1.73
AwayWWLDW2.11
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%45%64%
AVG goals2.782.592.93
Over 1.5 %74%68%79%
Over 2.5 %52%45%57%
Over 3.5 %38%36%39%
Scored1.621.501.71
Conceded1.161.091.21
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet40%36%43%
Corners8.506.0011.00
Cards---
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDW1.26
HomeLLDLD1.28
AwayLLDDW1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals2.121.842.40
Over 1.5 %68%64%72%
Over 2.5 %38%32%44%
Over 3.5 %14%8%20%
Scored1.020.921.12
Conceded1.100.921.28
BTTS40%28%52%
Clean Sheet40%48%32%
Corners7.007.00-
Cards5.335.505.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3679
67%
2.2
7631+45
3.0
78%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.10.9
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
53%
1.9
6040+20
2.8
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.1
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3654
42%
1.5
4340+3
2.3
61%
44%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.21.1
-
4DainavaDainava3645
33%
1.2
3439-5
2.0
53%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
5BangaBanga3643
28%
1.2
3746-9
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.01.3
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3842
26%
1.1
3441-7
2.0
47%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3642
28%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
67%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.4
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3642
31%
1.2
3348-15
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.3
-
9PanevėžysPanevėžys3641
25%
1.1
3440-6
2.1
56%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2220.91.1
-
10TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3638
31%
1.1
3550-15
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.4
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

← all matches