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Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys Result & Analysis

Date: 09/03/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 2-1
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Vs
44%
27%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hegelmann Litauen win✓ Hit
44.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W22D00D10W23L12L21W41W11D02LA·DŽI18/09H·PAN22/09A·BAN29/09H·DŽI06/10A·TRA19/10H·DAI25/10H·SUD02/11H·TRA06/11A·BAN09/11A·BAN01/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.001.830.921.671.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.691.311.881.001.501.62
vs Weaker (14)1.790.641.750.751.800.60
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D12L21W00D10W00D13L42W00D13LA·HEG22/09A·ŠIA26/09H·TRA01/10A·KAU05/10H·DŽI18/10H·DŽI22/10H·ŠIA27/10A·FK 03/11A·TRA09/11H·ŠIA02/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.500.801.331.331.67
vs Stronger (4)0.503.000.503.000.503.00
vs Similar (21)1.101.380.801.401.361.36
vs Weaker (5)1.400.801.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.1%
Under 2.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.8%
Under 3.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.2%
No
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1 ✓
9.2%
1-0
8.4%
2-0
7.6%
0-0
7.2%
1-2
7.2%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
5.7%
Hegelmann Litauen goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
01234
07.2%6.3%4.6%1.9%0.6%
18.4%13%7.2%2.9%0.9%
27.6%9.2%5.7%2.3%0.7%
34.0%4.9%3.0%1.2%0.4%
41.6%1.9%1.2%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann Litauen goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Dainava
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.50 points better than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys are level in goals scored per game (both 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Banga
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.17 goals better than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W00D00D02L10W21W20W00D01LA·DŽI18/09H·PAN22/09A·BAN29/09H·DŽI06/10A·TRA19/10H·DAI25/10H·SUD02/11H·TRA06/11A·BAN09/11A·BAN01/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.470.830.420.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.690.811.000.620.381.00
vs Weaker (14)0.570.070.500.000.600.10
Clean sheet %70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L10W00D10W00D01L21W00D12LA·HEG22/09A·ŠIA26/09H·TRA01/10A·KAU05/10H·DŽI18/10H·DŽI22/10H·ŠIA27/10A·FK 03/11A·TRA09/11H·ŠIA02/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.730.470.670.600.80
vs Stronger (4)0.001.750.002.500.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.480.620.400.500.550.73
vs Weaker (5)1.200.401.000.001.501.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D12L00D10W21W02L00D21W11D01LA·DŽI18/09H·PAN22/09A·BAN29/09H·DŽI06/10A·TRA19/10H·DAI25/10H·SUD02/11H·TRA06/11A·BAN09/11A·BAN01/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.531.000.501.170.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.000.500.880.381.120.62
vs Weaker (14)1.210.571.250.751.200.50
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W11D11D00D00D00D12L21W00D01LA·HEG22/09A·ŠIA26/09H·TRA01/10A·KAU05/10H·DŽI18/10H·DŽI22/10H·ŠIA27/10A·FK 03/11A·TRA09/11H·ŠIA02/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.770.330.670.730.87
vs Stronger (4)0.501.250.500.500.502.00
vs Similar (21)0.620.760.400.900.820.64
vs Weaker (5)0.200.400.000.000.501.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
HL wins
3
Draws
2
PAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys · H/A from HL
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/24HHL Vs Panevėžys2-2
04/07/24APanevėžys Vs HL0-1
18/05/24APanevėžys Vs HL0-2
30/03/24HHL Vs Panevėžys4-2
21/10/23HHL Vs Panevėžys0-0
07/08/23APanevėžys Vs HL2-2
03/06/23APanevėžys Vs HL1-0
04/04/23HHL Vs Panevėžys2-4

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/25ABanga Vs HL2-0
09/11/24ABanga Vs HL1-1
06/11/24HHL Vs TransINVEST Vilnius4-1
02/11/24HHL Vs Suduva Marijampole2-1
25/10/24HHL Vs Dainava1-2
19/10/24ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs HL3-2
06/10/24HHL Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-0
29/09/24ABanga Vs HL0-0
22/09/24HHL Vs Panevėžys2-2
18/09/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs HL1-2

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/03/25HPAN Vs Šiauliai1-3
09/11/24ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs PAN0-0
03/11/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs PAN2-4
27/10/24HPAN Vs Šiauliai1-3
22/10/24HPAN Vs Džiugas Telšiai0-0
18/10/24HPAN Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-0
05/10/24AKauno Žalgiris Vs PAN0-0
01/10/24HPAN Vs TransINVEST Vilnius2-1
26/09/24AŠiauliai Vs PAN2-1
22/09/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs PAN2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDL1.88
HomeDWLWW1.78
AwayWDLDL1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%48%59%
AVG goals2.802.742.85
Over 1.5 %74%70%78%
Over 2.5 %52%57%48%
Over 3.5 %38%39%37%
Scored1.661.701.63
Conceded1.141.041.22
BTTS56%61%52%
Clean Sheet36%30%41%
Corners---
Cards---
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDL1.04
HomeWWDLL1.04
AwayDLDWD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%25%19%
AVG goals2.201.792.58
Over 1.5 %64%54%73%
Over 2.5 %44%38%50%
Over 3.5 %20%12%27%
Scored0.920.711.12
Conceded1.281.081.46
BTTS46%29%62%
Clean Sheet34%46%23%
Corners---
Cards4.003.005.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3675
61%
2.1
6726+41
2.6
69%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.90.7
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
58%
1.9
5643+13
2.8
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3662
47%
1.7
5441+13
2.6
81%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.51.1
-
4Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.0
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3652
39%
1.4
5953+6
3.1
81%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.61.5
-
6PanevėžysPanevėžys3649
39%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
81%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.4
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3646
36%
1.3
3745-8
2.3
64%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.01.2
-
8BangaBanga3642
31%
1.2
3836+2
2.1
58%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.11.0
-
9FK TrakaiFK Trakai3830
18%
0.8
3975-36
3.0
82%
58%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10DainavaDainava3618
8%
0.5
2776-49
2.9
89%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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