This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
2.08
1.50
1.22
1.39
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
1.52
1.43
2.00
1.67
1.21
1.29
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.75
2.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.2%
Under 2.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.6%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
5.7%
3-1 ✓
5.6%
Hegelmann Litauen goals ↓
Šiauliai goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
5.3%
3.8%
1.5%
0.5%
1
8.1%
12%
6.6%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.0%
9.6%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.6%
5.6%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.0%
2.4%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann Litauen goals (down), columns = Šiauliai goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hegelmann Litauen
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.25
Džiugas Telšiai
2.25
Atmosfera
2.25
Banga
2.20
Alternatyvus FK
2.00
Viltis Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.00
FKS Ukmergė
2.00
Nemunas
2.00
Babrungas
2.00
Ekranas
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Minija
2.00
Jonava
2.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Sendvaris
1.50
Dembava
1.50
VGTU Vilkai
1.50
Euforija
1.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
1.50
BFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Šiauliai
1.33
Klaipėdos FM
1.33
Nevėžis
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Vilnius FA
0.99
Cementininkas Akmenė
0.99
Pempininkai Gargždai
0.99
Narjanta Kupiškis
0.99
Ataka Vilnius
0.99
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Utenis Utena
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Geležinis Vilkas
0.00
Fortūna Kaunas
0.00
Panevėžys
0.00
Ave.Ko
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.00
Dainava
0.00
Sveikata
0.00
Hegelmann Litauen is 1.27 points better than Šiauliai in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
VGTU Vilkai
5.50
Ekranas
5.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
4.67
FKS Ukmergė
4.33
Alternatyvus FK
4.00
Dembava
4.00
Tauras
4.00
Kauno Žalgiris
3.75
Klaipėdos FM
3.67
Babrungas
3.67
Sendvaris
3.00
Euforija
3.00
FK Trakai
3.00
Jonava
3.00
Banga
2.60
Džiugas Telšiai
2.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Garliava
2.50
Atmosfera
2.50
Hegelmann Litauen
2.20
Šiauliai
2.00
BFA
2.00
Minija
2.00
Vilnius FA
1.83
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.83
Pempininkai Gargždai
1.83
Narjanta Kupiškis
1.83
Ataka Vilnius
1.83
Nemunas
1.67
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Viltis Vilnius
1.50
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
1.00
Šilutė
1.00
Trivartis Vilnius
1.00
Geležinis Vilkas
1.00
Fortūna Kaunas
1.00
Panevėžys
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.00
Sveikata
1.00
Nevėžis
1.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Utenis Utena
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Ave.Ko
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Dainava
0.00
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.20 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alternatyvus FK
0.50
Kauno Žalgiris
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.50
Minija
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen
0.60
Ekranas
0.67
Banga
0.80
Viltis Vilnius
1.00
VGTU Vilkai
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Atmosfera
1.25
Šiauliai
1.33
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.33
FKS Ukmergė
1.33
Jonava
1.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.50
Klaipėdos FM
1.67
Šilutė
2.00
Fortūna Kaunas
2.00
Panevėžys
2.00
Babrungas
2.00
Tauras
2.00
Dainava
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.33
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Garliava
2.50
Sendvaris
3.00
Nemunas
3.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
3.00
BFA
3.00
Sveikata
3.00
Vilnius FA
3.15
Cementininkas Akmenė
3.15
Pempininkai Gargždai
3.15
Narjanta Kupiškis
3.15
Ataka Vilnius
3.15
Dembava
3.50
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
4.00
Venta
4.00
Širvėna Biržai
5.00
Tera
5.00
Geležinis Vilkas
5.00
Saned Joniškis
5.00
Euforija
5.50
Utenis Utena
7.00
Ave.Ko
8.00
Utenos Utena
9.00
Trivartis Vilnius
10.00
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.73 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hegelmann Litauen or Draw✓ Hit
74.8%
Avg Implied -
49%
26%
25%
covers Hegelmann Litauen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen or Šiauliai✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied -
49%
26%
25%
covers Hegelmann Litauen + Šiauliai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Šiauliai✗ Miss
51.1%
Avg Implied -
49%
26%
25%
covers Draw + Šiauliai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.4%
Under
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
25.2%
Under
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.8%
Under
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.6%
Under
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hegelmann Litauen, so a minus line means Hegelmann Litauen give that many goals of a start and Šiauliai receive them. At -1, Hegelmann Litauen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hegelmann Litauen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
1.00
0.33
0.61
0.72
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.48
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.57
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hegelmann Litauen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.07
0.60
1.13
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.10
0.67
1.00
0.64
1.20
0.70
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.56
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
1.08
1.17
0.61
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.96
1.00
1.33
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
MIN (3)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Šiauliai have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Šiauliai have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Šiauliai have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann Litauen and Šiauliai have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kauno Žalgiris
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Suduva Marijampole
Panevėžys
Džiugas Telšiai
Banga
FK Trakai
Dainava
Neptūną Klaipėda