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Hegelmann Litauen vs TransINVEST Vilnius Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2026
Time: 15:45
Final 1-2
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Vs
51%
26%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Hegelmann Litauen are expected to emerge victorious in this Lithuania: A Lyga match against TransINVEST Vilnius, with a 51% probability of a home win. The match is likely to be a closely contested encounter with 2.7 goals expected on average. The most probable score is 1-1, with a 12.6% chance of occurrence.

Hegelmann Litauen have struggled lately, having lost three consecutive matches, including a 0-2 defeat to Kauno Žalgiris. However, their home form has been somewhat better, scoring an average of 2 goals while conceding 2.5 at home. In contrast, TransINVEST Vilnius have been in decent form, securing a 2-1 win over Hegelmann Litauen in their last match, and averaging 2.92 goals scored and 0.58 conceded when playing away against weaker opponents.

The model suggests two selections: Over 1.5 with a 76.9% probability and Under 3.5 with a 70.7% probability. Home win is the model's selection with a probability of 51%, while draw and away win have probabilities of 26% and 22% respectively.

Results analysis

The away team, TransINVEST Vilnius, pulled off a stunning upset with a 1-2 win over the home team, Hegelmann Litauen, extending their 2-game winning run. This result marks a surprising turn of events, as Hegelmann Litauen were the pre-match favourite with a 51% chance of winning. The model's selection, a Home win, was ultimately incorrect. The model's suggested picks did come through, however, with Over 1.5 hitting at 76.9% and Under 3.5 also hitting at 70.7%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hegelmann Litauen win✗ Miss
51.2%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.30
Edge
+24.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.45
Dafabet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
Superbet
3.40
William Hil
3.40
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.32
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.41
Bet365
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
TransINVEST Vilnius win✓ Hit
22.3%
Avg Implied 45.8% · @ 1.96
Edge
-23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.06
Dafabet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
SBO
2.01
William Hil
2.00

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D02L41W20W13L21W11D15L20W23LH·BAN05/10A·FK 18/10H·DŽI23/10A·DAI27/10A·FK 02/11H·SUD08/11A·PAN04/07A·SUD20/07A·ŠIA24/07H·FK 27/07
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.271.791.291.251.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.171.501.501.830.831.17
vs Weaker (18)1.721.112.000.881.501.30
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-532W30W30W12L50W41W00D13L13L10WA·KAU26/09H·HEG04/10A·PAN17/10H·FA 25/10A·MIN31/10H·ŽAL09/11A·SUD06/07H·BAN12/07A·FK 19/07H·DŽI26/07
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.530.872.360.862.690.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)2.401.202.001.002.671.33
vs Weaker (25)2.560.802.420.832.690.77
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.9%
@ 1.22+2.1%
Under 1.5
23.1%
@ 3.61-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Under
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
3.95
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.68
Marathonbet
3.68
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.5%
@ 1.76-0.7%
Under 2.5
48.5%
@ 1.93+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
SBO
1.83
Unibet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.77
Under
10Bet
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.3%
@ 2.87-2.5%
Under 3.5
70.7%
@ 1.34+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.89
1xBet
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Under
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.0%
@ 1.63-2.0%
No
46.0%
@ 2.07+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.68
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
No
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%@ 6.15+5.7%
1-0
9.8%@ 10.42+5.7%
2-1
9.7%@ 10.26+5.5%
2-0
9.2%@ 17.10+6.7%
0-0
7.6%@ 10.24+3.5%
1-2 ✓
6.0%@ 7.63+0.4%
0-1
5.7%@ 7.46-0.1%
3-1
5.4%@ 24.97+3.7%
Hegelmann Litauen goals ↓
TransINVEST Vilnius goals →
01234
07.6%5.7%3.6%1.2%0.3%
19.8%13%6.0%2.1%0.5%
29.2%9.7%5.1%1.8%0.5%
35.2%5.4%2.8%1.0%0.3%
42.2%2.3%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann Litauen goals (down), columns = TransINVEST Vilnius goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.50
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.25
Banga
1.80
Džiugas Telšiai
1.40
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.14
Panevėžys
1.00
Hegelmann Litauen
0.67
Šiauliai
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.48 points worse than TransINVEST Vilnius in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.75
Suduva Marijampole
2.50
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
Banga
1.80
Džiugas Telšiai
1.20
Hegelmann Litauen
1.17
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.86
Šiauliai
0.83
Panevėžys
0.80
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.31 goals better than TransINVEST Vilnius in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Suduva Marijampole
0.25
Kauno Žalgiris
0.25
Panevėžys
1.20
Džiugas Telšiai
1.40
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.43
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Banga
1.60
Hegelmann Litauen
2.17
Šiauliai
2.67
Hegelmann Litauen is 0.74 goals worse than TransINVEST Vilnius in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 1.43).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D20W10W12L00D00D03L20W11DH·BAN05/10A·FK 18/10H·DŽI23/10A·DAI27/10A·FK 02/11H·SUD08/11A·PAN04/07A·SUD20/07A·ŠIA24/07H·FK 27/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.500.790.430.620.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.750.501.170.670.330.33
vs Weaker (18)0.670.500.500.250.800.70
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W00D00D30W31W00D11D02L00DA·KAU26/09H·HEG04/10A·PAN17/10H·FA 25/10A·MIN31/10H·ŽAL09/11A·SUD06/07H·BAN12/07A·FK 19/07H·DŽI26/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.431.070.431.250.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.800.601.000.500.670.67
vs Weaker (25)1.240.401.080.421.380.38
Clean sheet %77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.9%1.22
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.21
+2.1%✓ Hit
Under 3.570.7%1.34
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
+2.5%✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (25)
€9m
FZV (23)
€6m
PAN (21)
€5m
HL (18)
€4m
BAN (20)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
FZV (8)
€2m
PAN (7)
€2m
HL (5)
€1m
BAN (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
HL (6)
€1m
PAN (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (10)
€4m
FZV (9)
€3m
PAN (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
HL wins
0
Draws
2
TV wins

Head-to-head

Hegelmann Litauen vs TransINVEST Vilnius · H/A from HL
DateH/AGameScore
06/11/24HHL Vs TransINVEST Vilnius4-1
19/10/24ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs HL3-2
24/04/24ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs HL1-2
03/03/24HHL Vs TransINVEST Vilnius2-3

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/07/26HHL Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-3
24/07/26AŠiauliai Vs HL0-2
20/07/26ASuduva Marijampole Vs HL5-1
04/07/26APanevėžys Vs HL1-1
08/11/25HHL Vs Suduva Marijampole2-1
02/11/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs HL3-1
27/10/25ADainava Vs HL0-2
23/10/25HHL Vs Džiugas Telšiai4-1
18/10/25AFK Trakai Vs HL2-0
05/10/25HHL Vs Banga0-0

TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26HTV Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-0
19/07/26AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs TV3-1
12/07/26HTV Vs Banga1-3
06/07/26ASuduva Marijampole Vs TV0-0
09/11/25HTV Vs Žalgiris II4-1
31/10/25AMinija Vs TV0-5
25/10/25HTV Vs FA Šiauliai II1-2
17/10/25APanevėžys II Vs TV0-3
04/10/25HTV Vs Hegelmann II3-0
26/09/25AKauno Žalgiris II Vs TV2-3

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL1.66
HomeDDWWL1.96
AwayWLDLW1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%60%40%
AVG goals2.843.002.68
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %54%64%44%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.521.841.20
Conceded1.321.161.48
BTTS54%64%44%
Clean Sheet30%24%36%
Corners---
Cards---
TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLW1.98
HomeWLWLW1.92
AwayWWWDL2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%60%64%
AVG goals3.062.803.32
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %62%60%64%
Over 3.5 %38%32%44%
Scored2.081.922.24
Conceded0.980.881.08
BTTS42%36%48%
Clean Sheet46%48%44%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris410
75%
2.5
101+9
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4242.50.2
-
2Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole410
75%
2.5
101+9
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.50.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius49
75%
2.2
116+5
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2232.81.5
-
4BangaBanga59
60%
1.8
98+1
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.81.6
-
5TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius78
29%
1.1
610-4
2.3
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
6Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
7PanevėžysPanevėžys55
20%
1.0
46-2
2.0
80%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.81.2
-
8Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen64
17%
0.7
713-6
3.3
100%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.22.2
-
9ŠiauliaiŠiauliai63
17%
0.5
516-11
3.5
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.7
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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