This match between Helmond Sport and Waalwijk is finely balanced, with Waalwijk's recent draw against Vitesse mirroring Helmond Sport's own recent draw against De Graafschap. The model predicts an away win for Waalwijk, with a 41% probability, making it the favourite. Helmond Sport has a 33% chance of winning, while a draw is 26% likely. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.1%. Helmond Sport scores an average of 1.45 goals at home against similar opponents, conceding 1.18 goals. Waalwijk scores 1.56 goals away against similar opponents, conceding 1.11 goals. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.8% probability, and Over 21.5 fouls, with a 75.8% probability.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Waalwijk, was expected to win with a 37 % chance, but the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick incorrect. Helmond Sport’s recent form, coming off a draw, mirrored Waalwijk’s, both ending their last five with a single win. The model’s selection of an away win was wrong, but its other picks all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 98.7 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.9 %, Under 6.5 at 96.4 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.0 %, Under 5.5 at 91.2 %, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 90.1 %. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, which had a 13.5 % probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Helmond Sport win✗ Miss
34.7%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.63
Edge
+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.10
Dafabet
3.85
Pinnacle
3.76
Superbet
3.70
Unibet
3.70
Draw✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.55
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
Unibet
3.70
Dafabet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.65
Bet365
3.60
Waalwijk win✗ Miss
37.0%
Avg Implied 48.4% · @ 1.91
Edge
-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.99
Betano
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
Dafabet
1.94
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Helmond Sport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.77
1.40
1.73
0.60
1.80
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
3.14
1.50
2.75
0.33
3.67
vs Similar (23)
1.00
1.35
1.36
1.36
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waalwijk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.43
1.86
1.21
2.12
1.62
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
2.60
3.00
1.00
1.00
3.67
vs Similar (25)
2.04
1.20
1.67
1.25
2.38
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Helmond Sport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.3%
@ 1.20-1.1%
Under 1.5
23.7%
@ 4.11+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
888Sport
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.28
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.6%
@ 1.69-4.8%
Under 2.5
49.4%
@ 2.10+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.73
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Under
Betfair
2.15
10Bet
2.15
SBO
2.14
Pinnacle
2.14
Unibet
2.14
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.5%
@ 2.69-6.0%
Under 3.5
71.5%
@ 1.42+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
888Sport
2.80
Pinnacle
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Under
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.0%
@ 1.59-2.1%
No
44.0%
@ 2.21+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.60
William Hil
1.60
888Sport
1.60
Superbet
1.60
No
Betfair
2.30
888Sport
2.25
William Hil
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.5%@ 6.64+6.8%
1-2
8.4%@ 7.80+2.7%
2-1
8.1%@ 11.03+4.1%
0-1
8.0%@ 8.11+2.5%
0-0
8.0%@ 11.65+4.1%
1-0
7.7%@ 11.21+3.7%
0-2
6.4%@ 9.70+1.8%
2-0
5.9%@ 18.75+3.5%
Helmond Sport goals ↓
Waalwijk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
8.0%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.7%
13%
8.4%
3.9%
1.3%
2
5.9%
8.1%
5.6%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.6%
3.6%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Helmond Sport goals (down), columns = Waalwijk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Helmond Sport is 0.43 points worse than Waalwijk in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Helmond Sport is 0.66 goals worse than Waalwijk in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Helmond Sport is 0.13 goals worse than Waalwijk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Helmond Sport is 1.6 percentage points worse than Waalwijk in terms of average possession (49% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Helmond Sport
For 4.2 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 11.5 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waalwijk
For 3.5 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 12.6 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Helmond Sport
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.1
10.2
3.3
3.1
3.5
25.9
25.8
26.0
vs Stronger (11)
11.0
11.0
11.0
3.5
3.0
4.0
24.7
23.7
26.0
vs Similar (39)
10.6
11.2
10.0
3.3
3.1
3.4
26.2
26.4
25.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
76%
44%
46%
40%
52%
80%
84%
76%
% under line
40%
24%
56%
54%
60%
48%
20%
16%
24%
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waalwijk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.4
9.8
2.8
2.6
3.0
22.6
21.4
23.7
vs Stronger (10)
10.1
10.8
9.4
2.1
2.0
2.2
20.8
20.0
21.6
vs Similar (40)
10.1
10.3
9.9
2.9
2.7
3.1
23.1
21.8
24.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
52%
48%
38%
28%
48%
48%
39%
57%
% under line
50%
48%
52%
62%
72%
52%
52%
61%
43%
This opponent (Helmond Sport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
Dordrecht
11.7
De Graafschap
11.7
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong AZ
10.6
FC Volendam
10.5
Emmen
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Eindhoven
10.4
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.2
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.9
Vitesse
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.4
Dordrecht
4.2
FC OSS
4.2
Jong Ajax
3.9
Emmen
3.8
NAC Breda
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
Heracles
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.4
Roda
3.3
FC Volendam
3.3
Waalwijk
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
De Graafschap
3.2
MVV
3.1
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.2
Vitesse
27.0
Emmen
26.0
Helmond Sport
25.9
Jong Utrecht
25.7
Dordrecht
25.5
Roda
25.1
Jong Ajax
25.0
Heracles
24.3
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.4
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.7
MVV
22.6
De Graafschap
22.6
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.1
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.4%
@ 1.82+6.5%
Under 9.5
42.6%
@ 1.89-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Under
Unibet
2.04
1xBet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.1%
Under 3.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
73.3%
Under 21.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Helmond Sport or Draw✓ Hit
59.2%
Avg Implied 51.6% · @ 1.81
Edge
+7.6%
35%
28%
37%
covers Helmond Sport + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.88
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Helmond Sport or Waalwijk✗ Miss
73.8%
Avg Implied 74.4% · @ 1.25
Edge
-0.7%
35%
28%
37%
covers Helmond Sport + Waalwijk
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Draw or Waalwijk✓ Hit
67.0%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.26
Edge
-6.9%
35%
28%
37%
covers Draw + Waalwijk
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.29
888Sport
1.29
10Bet
1.28
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Helmond Sport over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.1%
@ 1.35+7.6%
Under
23.9%
@ 2.94-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.12
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Helmond Sport over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.8%
@ 2.72+7.7%
Under
58.2%
@ 1.41-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.83
BetVictor
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.73
Under
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Helmond Sport over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.4%
@ 6.56+3.2%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.08-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
888Sport
7.00
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
1xBet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Helmond Sport over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 17.88+0.3%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.01-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Waalwijk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.0%
@ 1.15-0.4%
Under
20.0%
@ 4.73+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Unibet
4.80
Superbet
4.70
Waalwijk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.8%
@ 1.80-3.8%
Under
52.2%
@ 1.92+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
1.96
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Waalwijk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.9%
@ 3.52-4.4%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.26+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.75
888Sport
3.75
Pinnacle
3.66
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Under
1xBet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Waalwijk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 7.83-3.9%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.06+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
888Sport
8.50
Superbet
7.20
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Helmond Sport, so a minus line means Helmond Sport give that many goals of a start and Waalwijk receive them. At -1, Helmond Sport must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Helmond Sport win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Helmond Sport)Actual: Waalwijk
Helmond Sport -2
5.8%
@ 19.33+1.0%
Draw -2
9.9%
@ 10.47+1.1%
Waalwijk +2
84.3%
@ 1.06-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
20.00
Superbet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
9.40
Away
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (Helmond Sport)Actual: Waalwijk
Helmond Sport -1
15.7%
@ 7.60+3.8%
Draw -1
17.3%
@ 5.47+0.9%
Waalwijk +1
67.0%
@ 1.25-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.25
10Bet
5.00
Away
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Handicap +1 (Helmond Sport)Actual: Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport +1
59.2%
@ 1.82+10.0%
Draw +1
19.6%
@ 3.76-4.2%
Waalwijk -1
21.2%
@ 3.31-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.93
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Superbet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Away
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Superbet
3.20
Handicap +2 (Helmond Sport)Actual: Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport +2
78.8%
@ 1.27+8.3%
Draw +2
12.6%
@ 5.48-3.8%
Waalwijk -2
8.7%
@ 6.83-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.25
Away
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Superbet
6.30
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Helmond Sport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.57
0.75
1.25
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.48
0.73
0.55
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waalwijk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
0.79
0.36
1.00
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.96
0.40
0.67
0.33
1.23
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Helmond Sport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.7%
@ 1.31-0.0%
Under 0.5
29.3%
@ 3.17+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Under
William Hil
3.30
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.6%
@ 2.46-1.1%
Under 1.5
63.4%
@ 1.49+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
William Hil
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.5%
@ 5.89-2.2%
Under 2.5
86.5%
@ 1.09+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.00
1xBet
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Under
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Helmond Sport over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.0%
@ 2.23+0.4%
Under
58.0%
@ 1.59-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
Superbet
2.27
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.57
Helmond Sport over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 7.46-2.5%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.06+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
Helmond Sport over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 20.25-2.9%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Waalwijk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
52.1%
@ 1.74-1.3%
Under
47.9%
@ 1.99+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
Unibet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Waalwijk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 4.81-4.9%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.15+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.10
1xBet
5.00
Betano
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.45
Under
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Waalwijk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 12.17-4.6%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Helmond Sport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.03
0.67
1.00
0.27
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.57
0.75
1.50
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.87
0.64
0.82
0.25
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waalwijk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.97
1.07
0.86
1.12
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.80
1.50
0.50
1.00
2.67
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.80
1.00
0.92
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Helmond Sport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Helmond Sport over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Helmond Sport over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Helmond Sport over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waalwijk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waalwijk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waalwijk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
1.01
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.2%
1.05
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.09
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.6%
1.15
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.6%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
80.9%
1.15
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
80.0%
1.15
888Sport
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
78.8%
1.27
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
78.1%
1.26
1xBet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.3%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
888Sport
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.1%
1.35
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.8%
1.25
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
-0.7%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.5%
1.42
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.44
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.7%
1.31
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
-0.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Helmond Sport
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brian Koglin25%
Sem Dekkers25%
Mauro Lenaerts25%
Menno Bergsen0%
Michel Ludwig0%
Labinot Bajrami0%
Helgi Fróði Ingason0%
Xander van der Velde0%
Kiton Ekoli0%
Tijn Landheer0%
Livio Cicero0%
Wassim Lantaki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wassim Lantaki50%
Brian Koglin25%
Michel Ludwig25%
Labinot Bajrami25%
Helgi Fróði Ingason25%
Mauro Lenaerts25%
Menno Bergsen0%
Sem Dekkers0%
Xander van der Velde0%
Kiton Ekoli0%
Tijn Landheer0%
Livio Cicero0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Helgi Fróði Ingason25%
Livio Cicero25%
Wassim Lantaki25%
Brian Koglin0%
Menno Bergsen0%
Michel Ludwig0%
Labinot Bajrami0%
Sem Dekkers0%
Mauro Lenaerts0%
Xander van der Velde0%
Kiton Ekoli0%
Tijn Landheer0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Brian Koglin0%
Menno Bergsen0%
Michel Ludwig0%
Labinot Bajrami0%
Sem Dekkers0%
Helgi Fróði Ingason0%
Mauro Lenaerts0%
Xander van der Velde0%
Kiton Ekoli0%
Tijn Landheer0%
Livio Cicero0%
Wassim Lantaki0%
Waalwijk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Keyan Varela67%
Finn Stokkers33%
Haye Van Gemert33%
Yorem van der Veen25%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Azzedine Dkidak0%
Juan Familia-Castillo0%
Thijs van Leeuwen0%
Ryan Fage0%
Niek Schiks0%
Loek Postma0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Faissal Al Mazyani0%
Jesse van de Haar0%
Jochem Nap0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jordy de Wijs50%
Loek Postma33%
Azzedine Dkidak25%
Jochem Nap25%
Finn Stokkers0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Juan Familia-Castillo0%
Thijs van Leeuwen0%
Ryan Fage0%
Niek Schiks0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Faissal Al Mazyani0%
Jesse van de Haar0%
Yorem van der Veen0%
Keyan Varela0%
Haye Van Gemert0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Faissal Al Mazyani25%
Jesse van de Haar25%
Jochem Nap25%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Finn Stokkers0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Azzedine Dkidak0%
Juan Familia-Castillo0%
Thijs van Leeuwen0%
Ryan Fage0%
Niek Schiks0%
Loek Postma0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Yorem van der Veen0%
Keyan Varela0%
Haye Van Gemert0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Finn Stokkers33%
Keyan Varela33%
Juan Familia-Castillo25%
Thijs van Leeuwen25%
Ryan Fage25%
Faissal Al Mazyani25%
Jochem Nap25%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Azzedine Dkidak0%
Niek Schiks0%
Loek Postma0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Jesse van de Haar0%
Yorem van der Veen0%
Haye Van Gemert0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Helmond Sport's squad is €4m less valuable than Waalwijk's (€4m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Helmond Sport's attack is €2m less valuable than Waalwijk's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Helmond Sport and Waalwijk have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Helmond Sport's defence is €2m less valuable than Waalwijk's (€2m vs €3m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht