This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
U
Ulm
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.08
1.00
1.33
0.67
0.83
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.09
1.00
1.33
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Hertha BSC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.1%
@ 1.76-2.7%
Under 2.5
48.9%
@ 2.05+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.0%
Under 3.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-0
11.2%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.7%
3-0
6.9%
3-1
6.0%
0-1
4.7%
Hertha BSC goals ↓
Ulm goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
4.7%
2.5%
0.7%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.3%
1.2%
0.3%
3
6.9%
6.0%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.2%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hertha BSC goals (down), columns = Ulm goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
1. FC Köln
1.87
Hamburger SV
1.76
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.71
Hannover 96
1.66
SC Paderborn 07
1.66
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.66
SV Elversberg
1.63
1. FC Magdeburg
1.58
Karlsruher SC
1.58
FC Saarbrücken
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Hertha BSC
1.34
SV Darmstadt 98
1.21
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.21
FC Schalke 04
1.18
Preußen Münster
1.16
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.02
Ulm
0.88
SSV Ulm 1846
0.88
Jahn Regensburg
0.74
Regensburg
0.74
Hertha BSC is 0.46 points better than Ulm in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamburger SV
2.39
1. FC Nürnberg
1.92
SV Elversberg
1.87
1. FC Magdeburg
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.74
Karlsruher SC
1.68
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.66
SV Darmstadt 98
1.63
SC Paderborn 07
1.61
1. FC Köln
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.47
FC Schalke 04
1.47
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.37
Hannover 96
1.29
Preußen Münster
1.24
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.07
Ulm
1.06
SSV Ulm 1846
1.06
FC Saarbrücken
1.00
Jahn Regensburg
0.68
Regensburg
0.68
Hertha BSC is 0.41 goals better than Ulm in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Saarbrücken
1.00
Hannover 96
1.03
1. FC Köln
1.03
SV Elversberg
1.08
Preußen Münster
1.18
SC Paderborn 07
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.24
1. FC Magdeburg
1.39
Ulm
1.41
SSV Ulm 1846
1.41
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.45
Hertha BSC
1.50
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.50
Karlsruher SC
1.55
SV Darmstadt 98
1.61
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.63
1. FC Nürnberg
1.66
FC Schalke 04
1.71
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.77
Jahn Regensburg
2.09
Regensburg
2.09
Hertha BSC is 0.09 goals worse than Ulm in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
1. FC Magdeburg
58%
Hamburger SV
55%
FC Schalke 04
54%
Hertha BSC
53%
FC Saarbrücken
53%
1. FC Köln
53%
SV Elversberg
52%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
52%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
52%
1. FC Nürnberg
51%
Fortuna Düsseldorf
50%
Hannover 96
49%
Karlsruher SC
49%
SSV Ulm 1846
46%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
45%
Preußen Münster
43%
Jahn Regensburg
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hertha BSC
For 6.2 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 10.1 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
U
Ulm
For 3.7 · Against 6.9 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 3.8 · Total 6.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 12.0 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hertha BSC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.3
11.6
4.5
4.6
4.4
22.6
22.4
22.9
vs Stronger (4)
11.7
9.0
13.0
2.5
2.0
2.7
19.0
23.0
17.0
vs Similar (36)
11.0
10.7
11.3
4.7
4.4
5.0
23.4
22.6
24.2
vs Weaker (10)
10.7
9.5
12.5
4.7
5.7
3.2
21.0
21.7
20.0
% over line
69%
68%
71%
60%
60%
60%
57%
52%
62%
% under line
31%
32%
29%
40%
40%
40%
43%
48%
38%
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
U
Ulm
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (12)
10.7
10.3
11.0
6.4
7.2
5.7
24.0
21.8
26.2
vs Stronger (11)
10.8
10.3
11.4
6.5
7.2
5.8
22.7
21.8
23.8
vs Similar (1)
9.0
-
9.0
5.0
-
5.0
38.0
-
38.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
100%
100%
100%
83%
67%
100%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
0%
0%
0%
17%
33%
0%
This opponent (Hertha BSC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamburger SV
11.3
Preußen Münster
11.2
1. FC Nürnberg
11.2
1. FC Köln
11.1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.8
Hertha BSC
10.8
Karlsruher SC
10.8
SC Paderborn 07
10.7
SV Elversberg
10.7
Ulm
10.7
SSV Ulm 1846
10.7
1. FC Magdeburg
10.6
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.6
Hannover 96
10.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.1
Jahn Regensburg
9.9
Eintracht Braunschweig
9.9
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Regensburg
9.4
SV Darmstadt 98
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ulm
6.4
SSV Ulm 1846
6.4
1. FC Nürnberg
5.5
1. FC Magdeburg
5.2
Jahn Regensburg
5.1
Hamburger SV
5.1
FC Schalke 04
5.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
5.0
SV Darmstadt 98
4.8
Regensburg
4.8
1. FC Kaiserslautern
4.8
1. FC Köln
4.7
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.7
Hertha BSC
4.6
Eintracht Braunschweig
4.5
Preußen Münster
4.5
SC Paderborn 07
4.5
SV Elversberg
4.4
Hannover 96
4.4
Karlsruher SC
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
25.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
25.1
Hannover 96
25.0
1. FC Kaiserslautern
24.6
1. FC Magdeburg
24.4
SSV Ulm 1846
24.2
1. FC Nürnberg
24.1
Preußen Münster
24.0
Ulm
24.0
Jahn Regensburg
23.9
SV Darmstadt 98
23.6
Hamburger SV
22.9
FC Schalke 04
22.8
Hertha BSC
22.7
Eintracht Braunschweig
22.5
1. FC Köln
22.4
SV Elversberg
22.1
SC Paderborn 07
21.9
Fortuna Düsseldorf
21.2
Karlsruher SC
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
63.4%
Under 9.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
79.0%
Under 3.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
64.8%
Under 21.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hertha BSC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
0.87
0.80
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
1.14
1.00
1.09
0.82
1.18
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
U
Ulm
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.42
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.18
0.50
0.00
0.40
0.40
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Hertha BSC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hertha BSC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hertha BSC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hertha BSC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hertha BSC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.83
1.20
0.73
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.82
1.00
0.82
1.18
0.82
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.83
2.00
0.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
U
Ulm
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.42
0.83
0.50
1.33
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.91
0.50
1.33
0.40
0.40
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
42% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hertha BSC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hertha BSC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hertha BSC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hertha BSC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hertha BSC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fabian Reese42%
Derry Scherhant24%
Florian Niederlechner23%
Michaël Cuisance21%
Ibrahim Maza19%
Jan Luca Schuler14%
Marten Winkler14%
Smail Prevljak10%
Palkó Dárdai6%
Linus Gechter5%
Deyovaisio Zeefuik3%
Jonjoe Kenny3%
Diego Demme0%
Andreas Bouchalakis0%
Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson0%
Toni Leistner0%
Kevin Sessa0%
Marius Gersbeck0%
Marc-Oliver Kempf0%
Haris Tabaković0%
Michał Karbownik0%
Márton Dárdai0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Gustav Christensen0%
Pascal Klemens0%
Boris Mamuzah Lum0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Márton Dárdai42%
Boris Mamuzah Lum33%
Deyovaisio Zeefuik32%
Diego Demme25%
Marc-Oliver Kempf25%
Michaël Cuisance21%
Smail Prevljak20%
Ibrahim Maza19%
Marten Winkler18%
Toni Leistner17%
Jonjoe Kenny17%
Florian Niederlechner16%
Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson15%
Pascal Klemens15%
Linus Gechter14%
Derry Scherhant11%
Andreas Bouchalakis10%
Jan Luca Schuler9%
Tjark Ernst7%
Kevin Sessa5%
Michał Karbownik4%
Fabian Reese0%
Marius Gersbeck0%
Palkó Dárdai0%
Haris Tabaković0%
Gustav Christensen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Haris Tabaković33%
Jonjoe Kenny20%
Michaël Cuisance18%
Jan Luca Schuler14%
Derry Scherhant11%
Linus Gechter9%
Deyovaisio Zeefuik9%
Diego Demme8%
Michał Karbownik8%
Ibrahim Maza8%
Pascal Klemens7%
Fabian Reese5%
Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson5%
Kevin Sessa5%
Marten Winkler5%
Toni Leistner3%
Florian Niederlechner3%
Smail Prevljak0%
Andreas Bouchalakis0%
Marius Gersbeck0%
Palkó Dárdai0%
Marc-Oliver Kempf0%
Márton Dárdai0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Gustav Christensen0%
Boris Mamuzah Lum0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fabian Reese47%
Derry Scherhant22%
Ibrahim Maza17%
Florian Niederlechner13%
Michaël Cuisance12%
Palkó Dárdai6%
Diego Demme4%
Pascal Klemens4%
Smail Prevljak0%
Andreas Bouchalakis0%
Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson0%
Jonjoe Kenny0%
Toni Leistner0%
Kevin Sessa0%
Marius Gersbeck0%
Marc-Oliver Kempf0%
Haris Tabaković0%
Deyovaisio Zeefuik0%
Michał Karbownik0%
Jan Luca Schuler0%
Márton Dárdai0%
Marten Winkler0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Linus Gechter0%
Gustav Christensen0%
Boris Mamuzah Lum0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hertha BSC
1. FC Köln
Hamburger SV
Fortuna Düsseldorf
SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
1. FC Kaiserslautern
SV Elversberg
1. FC Magdeburg
Karlsruher SC
1. FC Nürnberg
SV Darmstadt 98
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
FC Schalke 04
Preußen Münster
Eintracht Braunschweig
SSV Ulm 1846
Jahn Regensburg
FC Saarbrücken