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Hibernians vs Birkirkara Result & Analysis

Date: 14/09/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 0-2
Hibernians
Hibernians
Vs
27%
31%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The defensive figures suggest a tight affair. Hibernians, who average 1.27 goals scored and 1.45 conceded at home against similarly ranked opponents, will face Birkirkara, who average 1.14 goals scored and only 0.86 conceded on the road. The model sees an away win as the most likely outcome, with a 42% chance for Birkirkara, a 31% chance for a draw and a 27% chance for Hibernians. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a low-scoring match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability. The suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals, with an 81.2% chance. In addition to the result, the model offers the following selections: Under 3.5 (81.2%). The recent form shows Hibernians coming off a draw, while Birkirkara are returning from a defeat. This sets the stage for a cautious contest where the home side’s defensive frailties may be exploited by the visitors.

Results analysis

The updated form storyline shows Hibernians coming off a draw, while Birkirkara, after a defeat, still carried momentum into the match. The model predicted an away win with a 42% probability, and that call proved correct as Birkirkara secured a 0-2 victory. The predicted total of 2.2 goals and the most likely score of 1-1 were not realised, but the model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with an 81.2% probability. All suggested picks were settled: Under 3.5 hit, and the model’s favourite, the away win, was right. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the predicted outcome.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hibernians win✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara win✓ Hit
42.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W21W00D22D13L02L11D21W20W00DA·GUD10/03H·SIR16/03A·SLI07/04H·VAL14/04A·MOS21/04H·MAR27/04A·HAM04/05A·NAX17/08H·GZI25/08H·SLI29/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.031.001.311.360.71
vs Stronger (7)0.291.140.251.250.331.00
vs Similar (21)1.381.101.271.451.500.70
vs Weaker (2)2.000.001.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L02L20W00D22D22D33D10W20WA·MAR09/03H·NAX14/03A·HAM07/04H·GUD14/04A·GZI20/04H·SIR28/04A·SAN03/05A·BAL16/08H·ZAB23/08A·MAR29/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.071.201.271.130.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.141.111.141.361.140.86
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.7%
Under 1.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.7%
Under 2.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.8%
No
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-1
12.3%
0-0
12.0%
1-0
9.0%
0-2 ✓
8.6%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
5.0%
Hibernians goals ↓
Birkirkara goals →
01234
012%12%8.6%3.6%1.2%
19.0%14%8.3%3.5%1.1%
25.0%6.3%4.0%1.7%0.5%
31.6%2.0%1.3%0.5%0.2%
40.4%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernians goals (down), columns = Birkirkara goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
1.94
Birkirkara
1.74
Sliema Wanderers
1.71
Hamrun Spartans
1.65
Hibernians
1.53
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Gzira United
1.31
Mosta
1.19
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.12
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Balzan FC
0.91
Melita
0.88
Hibernians is 0.20 points worse than Birkirkara in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.74).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Floriana
1.53
Sliema Wanderers
1.47
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Hamrun Spartans
1.44
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.41
Birkirkara
1.35
Hibernians
1.34
Melita
1.15
Mosta
1.09
Balzan FC
1.06
Gzira United
1.06
Naxxar Lions
0.94
Hibernians is 0.01 goals worse than Birkirkara in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.35).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Floriana
0.68
Hamrun Spartans
0.82
Birkirkara
0.85
Sliema Wanderers
0.94
Marsaxlokk
1.22
Hibernians
1.25
Gzira United
1.31
Balzan FC
1.56
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.56
Mosta
1.66
Naxxar Lions
1.67
Melita
1.91
Hibernians is 0.40 goals worse than Birkirkara in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W21W00D01L11D00D11D11D00D00DA·GUD10/03H·SIR16/03A·SLI07/04H·VAL14/04A·MOS21/04H·MAR27/04A·HAM04/05A·NAX17/08H·GZI25/08H·SLI29/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.400.380.440.930.36
vs Stronger (7)0.140.570.000.500.330.67
vs Similar (21)0.710.380.550.450.900.30
vs Weaker (2)1.500.000.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L10W00D11D12L22D10W10WA·MAR09/03H·NAX14/03A·HAM07/04H·GUD14/04A·GZI20/04H·SIR28/04A·SAN03/05A·BAL16/08H·ZAB23/08A·MAR29/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.470.530.530.600.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.570.460.500.570.640.36
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D21W02L02L00D10W20W00DA·GUD10/03H·SIR16/03A·SLI07/04H·VAL14/04A·MOS21/04H·MAR27/04A·HAM04/05A·NAX17/08H·GZI25/08H·SLI29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.620.880.430.36
vs Stronger (7)0.140.570.250.750.000.33
vs Similar (21)0.670.710.731.000.600.40
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L01L10W00D11D10W11D00D10WA·MAR09/03H·NAX14/03A·HAM07/04H·GUD14/04A·GZI20/04H·SIR28/04A·SAN03/05A·BAL16/08H·ZAB23/08A·MAR29/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.600.670.730.530.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.570.640.640.790.500.50
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
Hibernians's squad is €3m more valuable than Birkirkara's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
Hibernians and Birkirkara have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
Hibernians and Birkirkara have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Hibernians's defence is €2m more valuable than Birkirkara's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
HIB wins
2
Draws
2
BIR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hibernians vs Birkirkara · H/A from HIB
DateH/AGameScore
17/02/24ABirkirkara Vs HIB1-1
30/09/23HHIB Vs Birkirkara0-1
02/04/23ABirkirkara Vs HIB5-0
05/11/22HHIB Vs Birkirkara1-1

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/24HHIB Vs Sliema Wanderers0-0
25/08/24HHIB Vs Gzira United2-0
17/08/24ANaxxar Lions Vs HIB1-2
04/05/24AHamrun Spartans Vs HIB1-1
27/04/24HHIB Vs Marsaxlokk0-2
21/04/24AMosta Vs HIB3-1
14/04/24HHIB Vs Valletta FC2-2
07/04/24ASliema Wanderers Vs HIB0-0
16/03/24HHIB Vs Sirens2-1
10/03/24AGudja United Vs HIB0-3

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/24AMarsaxlokk Vs BIR0-2
23/08/24HBIR Vs Zabbar St. Patrick1-0
16/08/24ABalzan FC Vs BIR3-3
03/05/24ASanta Lucía Vs BIR2-2
28/04/24HBIR Vs Sirens2-2
20/04/24AGzira United Vs BIR0-0
14/04/24HBIR Vs Gudja United2-0
07/04/24AHamrun Spartans Vs BIR2-0
14/03/24HBIR Vs Naxxar Lions0-2
09/03/24AMarsaxlokk Vs BIR0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWD1.58
HomeWDLWD1.38
AwayWDLDW1.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%38%50%
AVG goals2.602.542.67
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %28%27%29%
Scored1.381.151.62
Conceded1.221.381.04
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet30%23%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDWW1.54
HomeDLWDW1.62
AwayLDDDW1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%46%35%
AVG goals2.482.832.15
Over 1.5 %80%92%69%
Over 2.5 %40%50%31%
Over 3.5 %20%25%15%
Scored1.461.711.23
Conceded1.021.120.92
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet32%29%35%
Corners10.509.0012.00
Cards8.506.0011.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3466
53%
1.9
5223+29
2.2
74%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.50.7
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara3459
50%
1.7
4629+17
2.2
65%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.40.9
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3458
50%
1.7
5032+18
2.4
62%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.50.9
-
4Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3456
47%
1.6
4928+21
2.3
62%
38%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.40.8
-
5HiberniansHibernians3249
44%
1.5
4340+3
2.6
81%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.31.2
-
6MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3247
41%
1.5
4739+8
2.7
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.2
-
7Gzira UnitedGzira United3242
34%
1.3
3442-8
2.4
69%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.3
-
8MostaMosta3238
38%
1.2
3553-18
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
9Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3236
31%
1.1
4550-5
3.0
84%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
10Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
3155-24
2.6
76%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
11Balzan FCBalzan FC3229
19%
0.9
3450-16
2.6
78%
53%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
12MelitaMelita3329
21%
0.9
3863-25
3.1
88%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
Malta: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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