Hibernians are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 64% chance of a home win and a 22% chance of a draw, while Birzebbuga faces only a 15% chance of victory. The model’s pick is a home win, driven by Hibernians’ solid home form (1.5 goals scored, 1.14 conceded) against an opponent of similar strength, contrasted with Birzebbuga’s average away output (1.4 scored, 1.4 conceded). The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a lively match, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, with a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Hibernians, carrying a 10.3% probability. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 6.5 (96.1%), Home +2 handicap (94.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.7%), Under 5.5 (90.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.3%) and Home or Draw (85.1%). Hibernians’ recent draw against Zabbar St. Patrick and Birzebbuga’s recent loss streak add context, but the model’s odds still favour a decisive home victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernians win
61.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga win
16.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernians
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.47
1.24
1.18
0.85
1.85
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
1.62
0.67
1.67
1.40
1.60
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.41
1.36
1.07
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birzebbuga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.88
1.31
2.00
1.38
1.77
1.23
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.89
1.33
2.22
1.22
1.56
1.44
vs Weaker (5)
2.80
0.80
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
19% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.6%
Under 2.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.2%
Under 3.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
10.0%
1-0
8.8%
3-0
6.9%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
5.8%
2-2
4.9%
Hibernians goals ↓
Birzebbuga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
3.8%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
1
8.8%
11%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
10.0%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.9%
6.8%
3.4%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.5%
3.5%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernians goals (down), columns = Birzebbuga goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Hibernians is 0.35 points better than Birzebbuga in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 0.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Hibernians is 0.61 goals better than Birzebbuga in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Hibernians is 0.40 goals better than Birzebbuga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hibernians or Draw
83.6%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Hibernians + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernians or Birzebbuga
77.4%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Hibernians + Birzebbuga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Birzebbuga
39.0%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Draw + Birzebbuga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hibernians over/under 0.5
Over
87.2%
Under
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5
Over
60.8%
Under
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5
Over
33.8%
Under
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 3.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 0.5
Over
62.8%
Under
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 1.5
Over
26.0%
Under
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 2.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hibernians, so a minus line means Hibernians give that many goals of a start and Birzebbuga receive them. At -1, Hibernians must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hibernians win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hibernians)
Hibernians -2
19.4%
Draw -2
18.9%
Birzebbuga +2
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hibernians)
Hibernians -1
38.2%
Draw -1
22.8%
Birzebbuga +1
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hibernians)
Hibernians +1
83.6%
Draw +1
10.5%
Birzebbuga -1
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hibernians)
Hibernians +2
94.0%
Draw +2
4.4%
Birzebbuga -2
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernians
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.59
0.41
0.46
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.33
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.59
0.64
0.29
0.25
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birzebbuga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.42
0.85
0.62
1.08
0.23
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.44
0.89
0.56
1.11
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.20
1.50
0.50
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernians
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.65
0.76
0.38
0.85
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.82
0.71
0.79
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birzebbuga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
0.88
1.15
0.77
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.89
1.33
0.67
0.44
1.11
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.60
1.00
0.50
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
35% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Hibernians's squad is €3m more valuable than Birzebbuga's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Hibernians's attack is €1m more valuable than Birzebbuga's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Hibernians and Birzebbuga have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Hibernians's defence is €2m more valuable than Birzebbuga's (€3m vs €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
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Floriana
Valletta FC
Mosta
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Zabbar St. Patrick
Sliema Wanderers
Hamrun Spartans
Gzira United